Stocks break intermediate uptrend trade 19 to 1 down Bonds contine to rally

Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks.  Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholsale gas is at 2.74.

Long term US bonds smoked again today with the TLT spiking 3.62 and the 30 year rates fell to 3.66%. The 10 year is at 2.39% and money is galloping into these bonds. The dollar index is again making a run up to reverse and close at 75.36 up 1.16. It looks like something big is about to break and US bonds and the dollar are going to be the winners.

I suspect the buy cheap stocks and don't panic stories are going to be circulating soon. I would not be a buyer the trend is definitely down down so I am going to avoid all stock. Gold was down on the day and as I have been saying it is going to follow stocks down and quickly. To me I short the first down 50 day I see.

There were numerous trend changes today. Commodities: Palladium, Platinum, Gasoline, Grains, Agg to down.  Nickel and Copper to neutral. Currencies: Aussie, Peso,  Canadian to down, Rupee to neutral. World stocks: Russia and Japan to down. All world stock markets are now down.

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11383.68 -512.76 S/P 500 1200.07 -60.27
NYSE Comp 7428.40 -424.80  NASDAQ 2556.39 -136.68
S/P Midcap859.59 -53.51 Russell 2000 726.80 -45.98
DJT 4711.74 -255.44  DJU 410.63 -14.31
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0432%  2 yr .2680% 10 yr 2.39 30 yr 3.66
IEF (US10 yr) 101.09 +1.32 TLT (USLT) 105.36 +3.62
MUB (NatlMuni) 104.92 +.28 CalMuni (NCA) 8.86 -.02
HYG (High Yield) 86.95 -2.58 PFF(Preferred) 37.72 -1.04
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 83.21 +.50
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)28.70 -1.13 (USCI ) 63.66 -1.87
Gold 1659 -7.30  Silver 39.43 -2.33 Copper 4.22 -.10
Platinum 1729.40 -55.60 .Nickel (JJN) 34.13 -.81
Oil 86.63 -6.30 RBOB 2.74 -.18 Nat Gas 3.93 -.17
Grains (JJG)52.43 -1.57 Livestock (COW) 30.23 -.10
Cotton (BAL 64.39 -.37 Agg complex(JJA)59.73 -1.53
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4066 -.0196 Pound 1.6150 -.0162 Swiss Franc1.2893 +.0024
Yen 1.2470 -.0344 Aussie 1.0483 -.0273

World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.50 -.91  PCY(EmerMkt) 27.84 -.12
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.51 -.48

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 8-3 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

US High Yield 8-2 current trend down
US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 8-4 current trend down
Gold: .7-6  current trend up

Silver: 7-13  current trend up
Copper 8-4 current trend nuetral
Platinum 8-4 current trend down

Palladium 8-4 current trend up

Nickel 8-4 current trend neutral
Grain complex 8-4 current trend down
Sugar 6-17 currevt trend up

Cotton `4-25 current trend down

Livestock 8-4 current trend neutral

Coffee 5-11 current trend down

Lumber 7-28  current trend down
Agg complex 8-4 current trend down
Oil 8-1 current trend down

Gasoline 8-4  current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 7-21  current trend neutral
Aussie Dollar 8-4 current trend neutral
Euro 8-2 current trend down

Brit Pd 7-21 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up

Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-4 current trend down
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up

Indian Rupe 8-4 current trend neutral

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies: Aussie to neutral
Commodities: Gasoline to neutral
World Debt :
US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: Neutral  8-2-11 11866
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052

NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 7-27 mkt in correction 12302
Stock of the day:

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter 101 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)

Mikey5 Meter -70 VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 23.38 ,VXZ 49.70
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 66
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.16 10 day average 1.01  
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) 1.05  10 day ave .88
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.14

Williams %R 12 day -99.88 Weekly -99.54
Bulls 46.3  Bears 24.7 Bull/Bear ratio 1.87
Daily DJIA MACD - 85.78 Falling Neg cross 7-27 
Weekly MACD +131.97 Falling/Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 17 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-3-11 273 )273
NASDAQ New Highs 29 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-3-11 200) 200
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  +453  Nasdaq Advance-Decline +457
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 27324  
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-2 -10-3612) -3155
5 day AD NYSE -2798 NASDAQ -1928 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE -6048 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 37%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 13
Stock of the day:

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11975 Falling/Price below 
20 day 12374  Falling/ Price below

50 day 12278 Falling/Price below
90 day 12377 Falling/Price below
200 day 11995 Rising/Price below

20 week 12363  Rising/Price below
50 week 11755 Rising/ Price above

90 week 11166  Rising/Price above

200 week 10769  Falling/ Price above

Comments:

7-1 Mikey meter 147 AD 5 day 7421 10 day 8815 Pivot line is 12350 that will be the reversal number to look for. STOD ALTR 47.53 RS 91 Dollar reverses down Stocks all over the world reverse up.

7-5 False sell off a nothing day. Gold up 30 bucks above 1500

7-6 QE 2 extends into July

7-7 Gasoline turns up market nears highs mikey meter at 136.

7-8 Weak jobs Stocks sell off bonds rally. Mikey meter still at overbought 125. STOD BHI 75.06 RS 90

ECRI falls to 1.8%

7-11 Dollar and US bonds reverse up on US debt problems. Thank God the Fed owns all those bonds.

7-13 Bernanke slams the dollar at the reversal. Commodities and stocks rally. The big debt deadline crisis appears on the evening news. Talk of the Bernanke Put on the market(don't fight the Fed)

7-14 Bernanke says no QE3 now colling off commodities. STOD ATHN 45.87 RS 87

7-15 Gold up 10 days in a row Options expire. Mikey meter at 1. Next options series starts a neutral.

 ECRI 128.4 annual rate 1.7%

7-18  First day out of expiration.  Market to neutral Meter at -37 STOD CF 151.56 RS 90

7-19 Pre Debt agreement reached, Mikey Meter -35, STOD INFA 54.94 RS 90, mkt to up, Aussie to up, Grains to up

7-20 Dollar rolls over AGAIN International debt turns up Markets are mixed. Mikey Meter at -29. Oil on verge of buy signal most commodities are resuming their uptrends. Europe, China, and emerging markets lagging.

7-21 Dollar nears lows. Gold and commodities sell off??? International debt back in uptrend Mikey Meter -5, STOD AVGO 36.76 RS 91 Euro and PD turn up, High yield turns up International markets turn up

7-22 Pre debt agreement breaks up dollar tanks STOD HS RS 95 Mikey meter -36 market slightly OS

High Yield debt to up

7-25 Debt talks taken public flame is turned up on the public STOD FEIC 36.57 RS 94. mikey meter at -47 indicating downward pressure over the last 10 days.

7-27 AD line tanking, Mikey meter -60, Daily MACD Negative cross, DJI closes at 50 day, DJT and Russel 2000  break down to 200 day, less than 50% of all NYSE stocks are above their 200 day averages. IBD goes to market in correction Mikey goes to neutral.

7-28 Meter reads -153 for 5 day and -90 for 10 day either we crash or the market is close to a rally. Put/call is .97 10 day so the puts are out on a limb again, Put premium is finally starting to rise at .81 10 day but is saying that puts are still cheap relative to calls. %R is all the way down on the daily and half the way down on the weekly. I gave a sell signal today but it looks like the decline is slowing

7-29 US bonds have big up day at 6 month highs 30 year to 4.11 10 year to 2.80. Mortgages should fall. Stocks continue down nearing the 200 day average which is at 11977 or near its mid June lows. Mikey5 is at -176 and the mikey10 is -78.  MACD is nearing zero at 7.68 and only 42% of the stocks are above the 200 day showing that the DJI is masking the decline.

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

8-3 New lows hit 273 for NYSE. This number was at this level at the lows in 7-29-10. Indication that the DJI is way over priced and masking the damage that is going on now. Gasoline dropped .12 a gallon today and is nearing a trend break. Market holds at intermediate uptrend and reverses up for now.

 8-4 Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholsale gas is at 2.74 30 year rates 3.66 10 year 2.39. Dollar on verge of reversal. Gold stalled and reversed today closing at 1659