Bonds soar..."Pros" starting to worry

The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%. Looks like the boys at the benevolent Fed, you know the guys that bought all of those bonds to save the economy, are making a bundle. Like they say don't fight the Fed, if you can figure out what they are doing. Looks to me like they and, of course, their buddies the banks sold their stock and are sitting on a ton of US bonds. What is clear is that the debt crisis was a cover to clear the runway for the bond market. I wonder what the bond shorts do now. My advice is cover because it is going to get alot worse.

The market indicators were interesting today. The VXZ, 50.39 +2.57, is the fear measurement for the money managers finally jumped. This tells me that today was the day the realized what was going on. The Fed is not trashing the dollar and standing aside while assets fall and bonds rally. I think the VXZ is a fantastic buy at this price and I will add to mine tomorrow.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

The Put/call was amazing at .82 which indicates that the option players thought that the 200 day would hold and bought calls.  It also tells me that the players are NOT short.  In the past, the Fed would have helped them but not now. I think they want rates lower and commodity prices, yes that means Oil and Gold substantially lower. This will let them make a killing and also jump start the ailing economy.

The way the commodities acted today especially Gold indicates that many of the players are betting that the Fed is going to cave and trash the dollar as they always do. That may or may not be true but the last 50 bucks up on Gold are all on the come. Meaning that if the dollar goes up then Gold has along way to go to catch up with stocks. Stay tuned to this blog to find the answer to that important question and tell your friends to watch with you. It should get interesting in here.

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11866.62 -265.87  S/P 500 1254.05 -32.89
NYSE Comp 7831.98 -208.95 NASDAQ 2669.24 -75.37
S/P Midcap 1254.05 -32.89 Russell 2000 767.25 -25.85
DJT 4942.27 -188.27  DJU 425.31 -7.24
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1195%  2 yr .3119 % 10 yr 2.59 30 yr 3.89
IEF (US10 yr) 99.69 +.91 TLT (USLT) 101.54 +2.96
MUB (NatlMuni) 103.69 +.23 CalMuni (NCA) 8.89 +.09
HYG (High Yield) 89.58 -1.12 PFF(Preferred) 38.66 -.07
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 82.65 +.35
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.28 uc (USCI ) 66.47 -.12
Gold 1644.50 +22.80 Silver 40.11 +.80 Copper 4.39 -.02
Platinum 1793.50 +8.50 .Nickel (JJN) 36.20 -.01
Oil 93.79 -1.20 RBOB 3.04 -.01 Nat Gas 4.15 -.04
Grains (JJG)52.43 +1.65 Livestock (COW) 30.36 -.09
Cotton (BAL 65.60 +.36 Agg complex(JJA)61.73 +1.16
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4153 -.0047 Pound 1.6193 +.0010 Swiss Franc 1.2933 +.0300
Yen 1.2793 +.0008 Aussie 1.0803 -.0166 Can$ 1.0360 -.0037
USD Index 74.67 +.23  
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.01 -.19 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.90 +.19
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.74 +.08
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-27 current trend neutral

Intl Treas Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

US High Yield 8-2 current trend down
US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 7-11 current trend up

Gold: .7-6 current trend up

Silver: 7-13  current trend up
Copper 6-29 current trend up

Platinum 7-21 current trend up
Palladium 7-7 current trend up

Nickel 7-13 current trend up

Grain complex 8-2 current trend neutral
Sugar 2-23 currevt trend up

Cotton `4-25 current trend down

Livestock 7-7 current trend up

Coffee 5-11 current trend down

Lumber 7-1 current trend neutral

Agg complex 7-13  current trend neutral

Oil 8-1 current trend down
Gasoline 7-7 current trend up

Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 6-29 current trend up

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 7-13  current trend up

Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl
Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 7-21  current trend down
Aussie Dollar 7-19 current trend up

Euro 8-2 current trend down
Brit Pd 7-21 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up

Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 7-1 current trend up

Mexican Peso 8-1 current trend neutral

Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up

Indian Rupe 6-30 current trend up

Trend changes:

World Stocks: Total world to down, Emerging markets to down, India to down
Currencies: Euro to down
Commodities: Grains to neutral
World Debt : High Yield to down

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: Neutral  8-2-11 11866
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052

NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 7-27 mkt in correction 12302
Stock of the day:

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter 79 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)

Mikey5 Meter -144VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 23.66 ,VXZ 50.39
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 61
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .82 10 day average .96
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .90 10 day ave .95
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.14

Williams %R 12 day -100 Weekly -99.54
Bulls 49.5  Bears 21.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.30
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 0 Weekly 0 (1 low, 10 max)0,0
Daily DJIA MACD - 55.18 Falling Neg cross 7-27 
Weekly MACD +131.97 Falling/Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 22 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (7-29-10 175 )169
NASDAQ New Highs 31 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 139
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -1723 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1734
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 26871  
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-2 -10-3612) -3612
5 day AD NYSE -5771 NASDAQ -4331 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE -4759 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 37%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 14
Stock of the day:
DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12263 Falling/Price below 
20 day 12489 Falling/ Price below

50 day 12311 Falling/Price below
90 day 12388 Flat/Price below
200 day 11982 Rising/Price above

20 week 12363  Rising/Price below
50 week 11755 Rising/ Price above

90 week 11166  Rising/Price above

200 week 10769  Falling/ Price above

Comments:

6-28 New Mikey indicator overbought oversold for short term traders -80 oversold (a buy) +80 overbought (a sell). Green being buy red being a sell. Currently at +45 or mildly overbought

Stock of the day (SOTD) ACOM 41

6-29 Mikey Meter 99, (STOD) SQM 64.55 Exxon counts the Greek austerity vote oil spikes

6-30 Mikey Meter 127 extremely overbought, Mike index 94 also overbought, % W at 3.11 all the way up

The market has returned to its pivot line and last breakdown. This would be a logical place to stop.

STOD: RUE 32.50

7-1 Mikey meter 147 AD 5 day 7421 10 day 8815 Pivot line is 12350 that will be the reversal number to look for. STOD ALTR 47.53 RS 91 Dollar reverses down Stocks all over the world reverse up.

7-5 False sell off a nothing day. Gold up 30 bucks above 1500

7-6 QE 2 extends into July

7-7 Gasoline turns up market nears highs mikey meter at 136.

7-8 Weak jobs Stocks sell off bonds rally. Mikey meter still at overbought 125. STOD BHI 75.06 RS 90

ECRI falls to 1.8%

7-11 Dollar and US bonds reverse up on US debt problems. Thank God the Fed owns all those bonds.

7-13 Bernanke slams the dollar at the reversal. Commodities and stocks rally. The big debt deadline crisis appears on the evening news. Talk of the Bernanke Put on the market(don't fight the Fed)

7-14 Bernanke says no QE3 now colling off commodities. STOD ATHN 45.87 RS 87

7-15 Gold up 10 days in a row Options expire. Mikey meter at 1. Next options series starts a neutral.

 ECRI 128.4 annual rate 1.7%

7-18  First day out of expiration.  Market to neutral Meter at -37 STOD CF 151.56 RS 90

7-19 Pre Debt agreement reached, Mikey Meter -35, STOD INFA 54.94 RS 90, mkt to up, Aussie to up, Grains to up

7-20 Dollar rolls over AGAIN International debt turns up Markets are mixed. Mikey Meter at -29. Oil on verge of buy signal most commodities are resuming their uptrends. Europe, China, and emerging markets lagging.

7-21 Dollar nears lows. Gold and commodities sell off??? International debt back in uptrend Mikey Meter -5, STOD AVGO 36.76 RS 91 Euro and PD turn up, High yield turns up International markets turn up

7-22 Pre debt agreement breaks up dollar tanks STOD HS RS 95 Mikey meter -36 market slightly OS

High Yield debt to up

7-25 Debt talks taken public flame is turned up on the public STOD FEIC 36.57 RS 94. mikey meter at -47 indicating downward pressure over the last 10 days.

7-27 AD line tanking, Mikey meter -60, Daily MACD Negative cross, DJI closes at 50 day, DJT and Russel 2000  break down to 200 day, less than 50% of all NYSE stocks are above their 200 day averages. IBD goes to market in correction Mikey goes to neutral.

7-28 Meter reads -153 for 5 day and -90 for 10 day either we crash or the market is close to a rally. Put/call is .97 10 day so the puts are out on a limb again, Put premium is finally starting to rise at .81 10 day but is saying that puts are still cheap relative to calls. %R is all the way down on the daily and half the way down on the weekly. I gave a sell signal today but it looks like the decline is slowing

7-29 US bonds have big up day at 6 month highs 30 year to 4.11 10 year to 2.80. Mortgages should fall. Stocks continue down nearing the 200 day average which is at 11977 or near its mid June lows. Mikey5 is at -176 and the mikey10 is -78.  MACD is nearing zero at 7.68 and only 42% of the stocks are above the 200 day showing that the DJI is masking the decline.

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

Long term US bonds