Are the Bond Vigilantes coming back?

Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nothing then the bond vigilantes are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turning more positive now. This would support the vigilantes.

The traders believe that the Fed will support this mess and do what it did in QE1 and QE2. It would be just like them to pull the plug now. Keep watching the bonds and the dollar for the clue.
Mikey

 Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 66613.53 +53.58 S/P 500 1218.89 +5.97
NYSE Comp 7528.39 +64.39 NASDAQ 2579.46 +3.35  
S/P Midcap1218.89 +5.97 Russell 726.81 -1.27  
DJT 4666.96 -17.00 DJU 435.06 +2.44
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0453%  2 yr .1957% 10 yr 2.22  30 yr 3.60
IEF (US10 yr) 103.00 -.37 TLT (USLT) 107.03 -1.68
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.99 +.77 CalMuni (NCA)8.85 -.01
HYG (High Yield)`88.03 +1.12  PFF(Preferred) 37.77 -.08
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 83.40 -.11
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.16 +.05 (USCI )66.15 +.39
Gold 1831.70 +1.90 Silver 41.69 +.30 Copper 4.18 +.06
Platinum 1856.20 +3.10  .Nickel (JJN) 32.16 +.21 
Oil 88.81 -.09 RBOB 2.86 -.13  Nat Gas 4.05 +.14
Grains (JJG)55.55 -.11 Livestock (COW) 28.74 -.16
Cotton (BAL)65.38 -.02 Agg complex(JJA)65.64 +.01
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4312 -.0087 Pound 1.6117 -.0070 Swiss Franc 1.2269 +.0201
Yen 1.2877 +.0016 Aussie 1.0726 -.0019
Dollar Index 74.00 +.01
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 63.13 -.43   PCY(EmerMkt) 27.82 +.07
IBND(Intl Corp) 83.40 -.11

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 8-3 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 8-12 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 8-17 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..8-10 current trend up
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 8-30 current trend up
Gold: .7-6  current trend up

Silver: 8-30  current trend up
Copper 8-5 current trend down
Platinum 8-15 current trend up

Palladium 8-23 current trend neutral
Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 8-22 current trend up
Sugar 8-17  current trend up
Cotton `8-30  current trend neutral

Livestock 8-22 current trend neutral

Coffee 8-22 current trend up
Lumber 8-29 current trend neutral
Agg complex 8-22 current trend up

Oil 8-1 current trend down

Gasoline 8-30 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 8-9 current trend down 
Aussie Dollar 8-29 current trend neutral
Euro 8-16 current trend up
Brit Pd  8-15 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 8-30 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-4 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-29 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 8-8 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies: 
World Debt :

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter +55 Mikey5 Meter +117(-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 31.62,VXZ 62.87
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) +33
 Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.07 10 day average 1.07
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .80 10 day ave 1.17
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day - 10.86 Weekly - 55.53
Bulls 40.9  Bears 36.6 Bull/Bear ratio 1.12
Daily DJIA MACD  --149.93 Rising/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -139.03 Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 45 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )5
NASDAQ New Highs 23 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-8-11 712) 12
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  +889 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -15
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 28820    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) -5999
5 day AD NYSE +4668 NASDAQ +1931 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +3317(6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  30%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 13

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11499 Rising Price above
20 day 11230 Falling/ Price above

50 day 11915 Falling/Price below
90 day 12132 Falling/Price below
200 day 11992  Flat Price below

20 week 12122 Falling/Price below
50 week 11845 Flat/ Price below
90 week 11217  Flat/Price above
200 week 10706 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

8-3 New lows hit 273 for NYSE. This number was at this level at the lows in 7-29-10. Indication that the DJI is way over priced and masking the damage that is going on now. Gasoline dropped .12 a gallon today and is nearing a trend break. Market holds at intermediate uptrend and reverses up for now.

 8-4 Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year rates 3.66 10 year 2.39. Dollar on verge of reversal. Gold stalled and reversed today closing at 1659
8-5 Dji bounced off 90 week average. at 11179. New lows 814 vs 3 new highs The mikey10 is off the charts at 209 and the Mikey 5 is 134. This indicates that a short term bottom could be near. The intermediate trend is down and the long term trend is now neutral. Bonds were hit on news that the S&P downgraded US debt. That is just another way to get the shorts back in before they rally the bonds higher. I mean why would US bond rally after a downgrade. Well that is the way they do it so look for the bonds to take off again after this pullback.
8-8 DJI catches up with rest of market and trades to 200 week average. NYSE 0 new highs 1345 new lows. Mikey10 at -234 mikey 5 at -173. Mikey OB/OS -32 Weeky MACD below zero jast time was June 2010. The  Fed making money hand over fist on US bond position.
8-9 Fed plays catch today and says they will not hike rates. Really that was big news. The dollar returned to near its lows. Remember keep an eye on the uup it needs to trade above 21.80 to reverse. Today made it feel that QE 3 is on the way the way the currenciers all ripped the dollar. The Fed may not have the balls to do what they need to do which will drag this economy slowly into recession. Mikey 10 still way oversold at -226 Mikey 5 -169, Put call still high at 1.13 on a 400 up day. Closing in on the 5 day average which should be resisitance at 11500. Silver downgraded to neutral with the trend change at below 37.00. Gold keeps on going up 30 to 1743.

8-10 Mikey reading indicate a rally is nearing. The Fed and US treasury sold at aution Tuesday 24 billion of 3 year notes for .51% on wednesday it sold 24 billion of 10 year notes for 2.14% and tomarrow they will sell 16 billion of 30 year bonds at around 3.56%. It was sure nioce that the stock market sell off has created so much demand for US Debt just when the autions came in. Man are they lucky. I think you get the point. The stock market got out of the way and also the Euro bonds when France banking problems surfaced just in time for our auction. The Mikey 10 is a substancially oversold reading of -219 \the Mikey 5 is -161 and the VXZ is a col 58 induication the manager have a healthy respect for this sell off. A rally next week or options expirations week to about 11500 to 11700 would not surprise me at all. 
 8-11 Auction over fear leaves and market rallies bonds sell off and Gold falls.  Not Very original but who cares...right?
8-12 Week ends down a respectable 178 points rallying after the treasury auctions ended, what happens now well it would be perfect if the DJI would rally to about 11850 by next Friday, which was the breakdown and that way the puts would be wiped out. Mikey 5 is a normal +45 and the Mikey 10 is at an oversold -75. VXZ is till showing fear at 56.38 so all in all there is roonm to run it up. The 10 day average of Put/calls is a high 1.33 so the puts are ripe for the picking.
8-15 DJI continues to rally into expirations week Bye Bye puts.
8-16 Perry calls any more printing by the Fed treasonist. Obama needs more printing or the economy is toast.
8-17 Marking time
8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732
8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it was his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.
8-26 No QE3 but don't tell that to the market because it acted like it today
8-29 Greek banks and US economy OK today B of A sells 6 billion holding in China.But I am sure that they don't need the money.
8-30 Pimpco's Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold. Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling. Any investor that invests a these current rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces it has been a long time since the public face interest rte risk but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.
8-31 Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nnothing then the bond vigilante's are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turn more positive. This would support the vigilantes.