Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, July 25, 2011

Public is being sucked into the debt talks

It is interesting that just as the economy turns south that the salvation is in allowing the government to borrow by raising the debt ceiling. The good thing, they say, would be if there is an agreement and they could go on doing what they did before. I hear if there is no agreement that the stock market would fall  6% and people would lose money on their 401K. I guess that the stock market would then not care what the economy does because the economy is not doing well now, IMHO.

I hear, on the evening news that one should move money in their 401K to foreign bonds. Well Gee that sure makes sense, but wait the foreign bonds rallied after their debt agreements were passed.

Gold rallied to a new high today and more dollar denominated US bonds sold off.


Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 12592.80 -88.36 S/P 500 1337.43 -7.59
NYSE Comp 8357.57 -50.62 NASDAQ 2842.80 -16.03
S/P Midcap 983.86 -7.93 Russell 2000 831.40 -10.42
DJT 5414.43 -13.81 DJU 440.09 +.86
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0814%  2 yr .3912% 10 yr 2.96 30 yr 4.25
IEF (US10 yr) 97.06 -.29 TLT (USLT)95.00 -1.05
MUB (NatlMuni) 104.24 -.48 CalMuni (NCA)8.90 -.05
HYG (High Yield)91.35 -.49 PFF(Preferred) 39.19 -.18
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.57 -.20
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.60 -.15 (USCI ) 66.76 -.46
Gold 1612 +11.50 Silver 40.35 +.24 Copper 4.40 uc
Platinum 1792.90 +6.20 Nickel (JJN) 35.00 -.08
Oil 99.20 -.67 RBOB 3.12 -.01  Nat Gas 4.38 +.01
Grains (JJG)50.50 -1.03 Livestock (COW) 29.83 -.10
Cotton (BAL59.80 -1.44 Agg complex(JJA) 60.80 -.72
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4328 +.0013 Pound 1.6172 -.14 Swiss Franc 1.2282 +0182
Yen 1.2592 +.15 Aussie 1.0877 -.0002 Can$ 1.0514 +.0037
USD Index 74.06 -.14
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.18 +.09  PCY(EmerMkt) 27.19 +.02
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.72 +.14

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 7-11  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-11 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
US High Yield 7-22 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 7-11 current trend up
Gold: .7-6 current trend up
Silver: 7-13  current trend down
Copper 6-29 current trend up
Platinum 7-21 current trend up
Palladium 7-7 current trend up
Nickel 7-13 current trend up
Grain complex 7-25 current trend down
Sugar 2-23 currevt trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 7-7 current trend up
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber 7-1 current trend neutral
Agg complex 7-13  current trend neutral
Oil 7-13 current trend neutral
Gasoline 7-7 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-25 current trend neutral

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 7-19 current trend up
Europe 7-1 current trend down
China: 6-3 current trend down
Brazil 7-1 current trend down
Japan 6-29 current trend up
India 7-13 current trend up
Russia 7-13  current trend up
Emerging Markets: 7-21 current trend up
Total world markets 7-21 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 7-21  current trend down
Aussie Dollar 7-19 current trend up
Euro 7-21 current trend up
Brit Pd 7-21 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 7-1 current trend up
Mexican Peso 7-20 current trend up
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up
Indian Rupe 6-30 current trend up

Trend changes:
World Stocks:
Currencies:
Commodities: Grains to down
World Debt : Intl debt to up

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term up  7-19
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey DJI :7-19 Current trend up
NYSE 7-21 Current trend up
NASDAQ 7-19 Current trend up
Transports: 7-21 up
Russell 2000: 7-19 up  
IBD : 7-19 confirmed uptrend
Stock of the day: FEIC 36.57 RS 94
US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey Overbought/Oversold Meter --47 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 19.35 ,VXZ 48.60 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 83
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .88  10 day average .96
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .66  10 day ave .79
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.14
Williams %R 12 day 34.84 Weekly 20.54
Bulls 46.2  Bears 21.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.14
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 6 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max)14, -2
Daily DJIA MACD +97.41 Rising
Weekly MACD +220.10 Rising  Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 62(12/7 429) New Lows (1-14 152 )44
NASDAQ New Highs 44 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 28
Advance/Declines
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -1842  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1399
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 33571  
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (6-13 -2188) 1069
5 day AD NYSE +1941 NASDAQ +536 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
5 day Mikey meter  32 10 day AD NYSE -2841(6000 OB -6000 OS)
10 day Mikey  meter -47
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 59%
below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing
Days to option expiration 20
Stock of the day: FEIC 36.57 RS 94
DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12631  Rising/Price above
20 day 12340 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12498  Flat/Price above
90 day 12371 Rising /Price above
200 day 11952 Rising/Price above
20 week 12358 Rising/Price above
50 week 11719 Rising/ Price above
90 week 11142  Rising/Price above
200 week 10778 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

6-27 Too many bears time to shake them out
The news is so bad that the bulls are claiming to be contrarians now. They say that the problems are temporary and that stocks will rally by year end. Who knows why should a bad economy get in the way of a stock rally that is what has been going on for the past year.
6-28 New Mikey indicator overbought oversold for short term traders -80 oversold (a buy) +80 overbought (a sell). Green being buy red being a sell. Currently at +45 or mildly overbought
Stock of the day (SOTD) ACOM 41
6-29 Mikey Meter 99, (STOD) SQM 64.55 Exxon counts the Greek austerity vote oil spikes
6-30 Mikey Meter 127 extremely overbought, Mike index 94 also overbought, % W at 3.11 all the way up
The market has returned to its pivot line and last breakdown. This would be a logical place to stop.
STOD: RUE 32.50
7-1 Mikey meter 147 AD 5 day 7421 10 day 8815 Pivot line is 12350 that will be the reversal number to look for. STOD ALTR 47.53 RS 91 Dollar reverses down Stocks all over the world reverse up.
7-5 False sell off a nothing day. Gold up 30 bucks above 1500
7-6 QE 2 extends into July
7-7 Gasoline turns up market nears highs mikey meter at 136.
7-8 Weak jobs Stocks sell off bonds rally. Mikey meter still at overbought 125. STOD BHI 75.06 RS 90
ECRI falls to 1.8%
7-11 Dollar and US bonds reverse up on US debt problems. Thank God the Fed owns all those bonds.
7-13 Bernanke slams the dollar at the reversal. Commodities and stocks rally. The big debt deadline crisis appears on the evening news. Talk of the Bernanke Put on the market(don't fight the Fed)
7-14 Bernanke says no QE3 now colling off commodities. STOD ATHN 45.87 RS 87
7-15 Gold up 10 days in a row Options expire. Mikey meter at 1. Next options series starts a neutral.
 ECRI 128.4 annual rate 1.7%
7-18  First day out of expiration.  Market to neutral Meter at -37 STOD CF 151.56 RS 90
7-19 Pre Debt agreement reached, Mikey Meter -35, STOD INFA 54.94 RS 90, mkt to up, Aussie to up, Grains to up
7-20 Dollar rolls over AGAIN International debt turns up Markets are mixed. Mikey Meter at -29. Oil on verge of buy signal most commodities are resuming their uptrends. Europe, China, and emerging markets lagging.
7-21 Dollar nears lows. Gold and commodities sell off??? International debt back in uptrend Mikey Meter -5, STOD AVGO 36.76 RS 91 Euro and PD turn up, High yield turns up International markets turn up
7-22 Pre debt agreement breaks up dollar tanks STOD HS RS 95 Mikey meter -36 market slightly OS
High Yield debt to up
7-25 Debt talks taken public flame is turned up on the public STOD FEIC 36.57 RS 94. mikey meter at -47 indicating downward pressure over the last 10 days.
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