Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, July 22, 2011

Pre debt agreement breaks off.....Didn't I see this in Europe last month?

The dollar is nearing its lows and son of a gun the debt agrrement talks break off. The drama is killing me. I mean will thay actually not raise the debt ceiling thereby calling a series of downgrades and collapsing the world into financial chaos. Of course, if they do this then they lose their jobs and the government can't borrow. Didn't I just see this same melodrama in Europe over the PIGS? This is reality TV at its best. Lets see, the dollar then takes out the lows in the coming week and every TV viewer, business report listener, or investment paper reader will buy Gold and Oil and of couse get out of dollars and buy assets. Anyway this is some fine drama and it is well directed and very timely. I can hardly wait to see what happens. I wonder what the Fed is buying or selling???? 

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 12681.16 -43.25 S/P 500 1345.02 +1.22
NYSE Comp 8408.20 -3.25 NASDAQ 2858.83 +24.40  
S/P Midcap 991.79 +2.07 Russell 2000 841.82 +.56
DJT 54280.24 -4.02 DJU 439.23 -2.10
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0814%  2 yr .3912% 10 yr 2.96 30 yr 4.25
IEF (US10 yr) 97.35 +.37 TLT (USLT)95.98 +.65
MUB (NatlMuni) 104.72 +.24  CalMuni (NCA)8.95 -.07
HYG (High Yield)91.84 +.12 PFF(Preferred) 39.37 +.06
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.84 +.22
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.75 +.25 (USCI ) 67.23 +.68
Gold 1601.50 +14.50  Silver 40.11 +1.17 Copper 4.40 +.02
Platinum 1786.70 Nickel (JJN) 35.08 +.19
Oil 99.87 +.74 RBOB 3.13 +.03 Nat Gas 4.37 -.02
Grains (JJG)51.53 +.53 Livestock (COW) 29.93 +.24
Cotton (BAL 61.24 -.05 Agg complex(JJA) 61.52 +.71
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4344 -.0046 Pound 1.6296 -.0008 Swiss Franc 1.2228 -.0028
Yen 1.2565 +0041 Aussie 1.0782 +.0019 Can$ 1.0523 -.0053
USD Index 74.20 +.18
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.09 -.02 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.17 +.01
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.58 -.07

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 7-11  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-11 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 7-20 current trend neutral
Intl Corp Bonds 7-21 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
US High Yield 7-22 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 7-11 current trend up
Gold: .7-6 current trend up
Silver: 7-13  current trend down
Copper 6-29 current trend up
Platinum 7-21 current trend up
Palladium 7-7 current trend up
Nickel 7-13 current trend up
Grain complex 7-19 current trend neutral
Sugar 2-23 currevt trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 7-7 current trend up
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber 7-1 current trend neutral
Agg complex 7-13  current trend neutral
Oil 7-13 current trend neutral
Gasoline 7-7 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-15 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 7-19 current trend up
Europe 7-1 current trend down
China: 6-3 current trend down
Brazil 7-1 current trend down
Japan 6-29 current trend up
India 7-13 current trend up
Russia 7-13  current trend up
Emerging Markets: 7-21 current trend up
Total world markets 7-21 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 7-21  current trend down
Aussie Dollar 7-19 current trend up
Euro 7-21 current trend up
Brit Pd 7-21 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 7-1 current trend up
Mexican Peso 7-20 current trend up
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up
Indian Rupe 6-30 current trend up

Trend changes:
World Stocks:
Currencies:
Commodities:
World Debt : US High Yield to up
US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term up  7-19
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey DJI :7-19 Current trend up
NYSE 7-21 Current trend up
NASDAQ 7-19 Current trend up
Transports: 7-21 up
Russell 2000: 7-19 up  
IBD : 7-19 confirmed uptrend
Stock of the day: HS 45.27 RS 95

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey Overbought/Oversold Meter -36 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 17.52 ,VXZ 47.75 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 90
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .82 10 day average .98
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .73 10 day ave .77
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.14
Williams %R 12 day 16.39 Weekly 19.44  
Bulls 46.2  Bears 21.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.14
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max)17,1
Daily DJIA MACD +100.02 Rising
Weekly MACD +219.59 Rising  Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 106(12/7 429) New Lows (1-14 152 )22
NASDAQ New Highs 80 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 21
Advance/Declines
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -138  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -38
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 35413  
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (6-13 -2188) 2408
5 day AD NYSE +1660 NASDAQ +391 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
5 day Mikey meter  +28
10 day AD NYSE -305 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
10 day Mikey  meter -36
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 63%
below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing
Days to option expiration 23
Stock of the day: HS 45.27 RS 95

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12590  Rising/Price above
20 day 12465 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12343  Flat/Price above
90 day 12360  Rising /Price above
200 day 11944 Rising/Price above
20 week 12358 Rising/Price above
50 week 11719 Rising/ Price above
90 week 11142  Rising/Price above
200 week 10778 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

6-20 Working off oversold.
6-21 Greece vote. Market is not oversold now.
6-22 Fed say economy weak will not be a QE 3..Look out!!!
6-23 Bernanke says high oil prices hurting economy. Last year he said it did not hurt economy. So guess what the US will sell oil from reserves. How convenient. That will make you think about which way they are going with the dollar.
6-23 The moment of truth is here for the dollar and Gold. The last holdouts of this new trend change
Gold closes at 1500 below the 50 day but above its closing low of May 5 th of 1480. The dollar closes right on its reversal number of 76.21. Aussie holds 105 on the close but under the 1.0523 that I believe is a downtrend.
6-27 Too many bears time to shake them out
The news is so bad that the bulls are claiming to be contrarians now. They say that the problems are temporary and that stocks will rally by year end. Who knows why should a bad economy get in the way of a stock rally that is what has been going on for the past year.
6-28 New Mikey indicator overbought oversold for short term traders -80 oversold (a buy) +80 overbought (a sell). Green being buy red being a sell. Currently at +45 or mildly overbought
Stock of the day (SOTD) ACOM 41
6-29 Mikey Meter 99, (STOD) SQM 64.55 Exxon counts the Greek austerity vote oil spikes
6-30 Mikey Meter 127 extremely overbought, Mike index 94 also overbought, % W at 3.11 all the way up
The market has returned to its pivot line and last breakdown. This would be a logical place to stop.
STOD: RUE 32.50
7-1 Mikey meter 147 AD 5 day 7421 10 day 8815 Pivot line is 12350 that will be the reversal number to look for. STOD ALTR 47.53 RS 91 Dollar reverses down Stocks all over the world reverse up.
7-5 False sell off a nothing day. Gold up 30 bucks above 1500
7-6 QE 2 extends into July
7-7 Gasoline turns up market nears highs mikey meter at 136.
7-8 Weak jobs Stocks sell off bonds rally. Mikey meter still at overbought 125. STOD BHI 75.06 RS 90
ECRI falls to 1.8%
7-11 Dollar and US bonds reverse up on US debt problems. Thank God the Fed owns all those bonds.
7-13 Bernanke slams the dollar at the reversal. Commodities and stocks rally. The big debt deadline crisis appears on the evening news. Talk of the Bernanke Put on the market(don't fight the Fed)
7-14 Bernanke says no QE3 now colling off commodities. STOD ATHN 45.87 RS 87
7-15 Gold up 10 days in a row Options expire. Mikey meter at 1. Next options series starts a neutral.
 ECRI 128.4 annual rate 1.7%
7-18  First day out of expiration.  Market to neutral Meter at -37 STOD CF 151.56 RS 90
7-19 Pre Debt agreement reached, Mikey Meter -35, STOD INFA 54.94 RS 90, mkt to up, Aussie to up, Grains to up
7-20 Dollar rolls over AGAIN International debt turns up Markets are mixed. Mikey Meter at -29. Oil on verge of buy signal most commodities are resuming their uptrends. Europe, China, and emerging markets lagging.
7-21 Dollar nears lows. Gold and commodities sell off??? International debt back in uptrend Mikey Meter -5, STOD AVGO 36.76 RS 91 Euro and PD turn up, High yield turns up International markets turn up
7-22 Pre debt agreement breaks up dollar tanks STOD HS RS 95 Mikey meter -36 market slightly OS
High Yield debt to up
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