Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, July 21, 2011

I would have sworn that Ben said no QE3 now

If you look at todays market you can see the value of a falling dollar. Everyone benefits except for higher interest rates in the US. Looks like Ben is pressing down on the petal again. Check the trends and don't bet against them
Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 12724.41 +152.50 S/P 500 1343.80 +17.96
NYSE Comp 8411.45 +129.62 NASDAQ 2834.43 +20.20
S/P Midcap 989.72 +9.32 Russell 2000 841.26 +6.92
DJT 5432.26 +89.31 DJU 441.33 +6.72
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0839%  2 yr .3912% 10 yr 3.00 30 yr 4.29
IEF (US10 yr) 96.98 -.54 TLT (USLT) 95.62 -.45
MUB (NatlMuni) 104.48 +.07 CalMuni (NCA)9.02 uc
HYG (High Yield)91.72 +.44 PFF(Preferred) 39.21 +.14
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.62 -.18
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.51 -.14 (USCI ) 66.55 -.34
Gold 1586 -10.40 Silver 38.93 -.61 Copper 4.38 -.05
Platinum 1786.70 +20.60 Nickel (JJN) 34.88 -.24
Oil 99.13 +.99 RBOB 3.10 -.04 Nat Gas 4.39 -.11
Grains (JJG)57.08 -.08 Livestock (COW) 29.63 -.03
Cotton (BAL 61.29 -1.74 Agg complex(JJA) 60.81 -.31
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4374 +0.202 Pound 1.6201 +.0155 Swiss Franc 1.2117 +.0043
Yen 1.2565 +0041Aussie 1.0873 +.0110 Can$ 1.0538 +.0043
USD Index 74.01 -.78
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.11 +.44 PCY(EmerMkt) 21.15 +.04
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.65 +.32

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 7-11  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-11 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 7-20 current trend neutral
Intl Corp Bonds 7-21 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
US High Yield 7-20 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 7-11 current trend up
Gold: .7-6 current trend up
Silver: 7-13  current trend down
Copper 6-29 current trend up
Platinum 7-21 current trend up
Palladium 7-7 current trend up
ickel 7-13 current trend up
Grain complex 7-19 current trend neutral
Sugar 2-23 currevt trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 7-7 current trend up
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber 7-1 current trend neutral
Agg complex 7-13  current trend neutral
Oil 7-13 current trend neutral
Gasoline 7-7 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-15 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 7-19 current trend up
Europe 7-1 current trend down
China: 6-3 current trend down
Brazil 7-1 current trend down
Japan 6-29 current trend up
India 7-13 current trend up
Russia 7-13  current trend up
Emerging Markets: 7-21 current trend up
Total world markets 7-21 current trend up

 
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 7-21  current trend down
Aussie Dollar 7-19 current trend up
Euro 7-21 current trend up
Brit Pd 7-21 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 7-1 current trend up
Mexican Peso 7-20 current trend up
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up
Indian Rupe 6-30 current trend up

Trend changes:
World Stocks: Tot world up, Emerg mkts up
Currencies: Euro up, Brit pd up
Commodities: Platinum up
World Debt : Intl Treas debt up, Intl corp debt neutral

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term up  7-19
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey DJI :7-19 Current trend up
NYSE 7-21 Current trend up
NASDAQ 7-19 Current trend up
Transports: 7-21 up
Russell 2000: 7-19 up  
IBD : 7-19 confirmed uptrend
Stock of the day: CAT 113.36
US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey Overbought/Oversold Meter -5 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 17.58 ,VXZ 47.89  Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 89
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .74 10 day average .99
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .73 10 day ave .77
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.14
Williams %R 12 day 5.97 Weekly 14.74
Bulls 46.2  Bears 21.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.14
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max)17,1
Daily DJIA MACD +93.72 Rising
Weekly MACD +223.41  Rising  Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 165(12/7 429) New Lows (1-14 152 )16
NASDAQ New Highs 90 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 23
Advance/Declines
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1837 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +938
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 35551  
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (6-13 -2188) 2446
5 day AD NYSE +2459 NASDAQ +876 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
5 day Mikey meter +41
10 day AD NYSE -305 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
10 day Mikey  meter -5
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 63%
below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing
Days to option expiration 23
Stock of the day: AVGO 36.76 RS 91 
DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12550 Rising/Price above
20 day 12434 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12342 Flat/Price above
90 day 12350 Flat /Price above
200 day 11935 Rising/Price above
20 week 12333 Rising/Price above
50 week 11678 Rising/ Price above
90 week 11109 Rising/Price above
200 week 10784 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

6-20 Working off oversold.
6-21 Greece vote. Market is not oversold now.
6-22 Fed say economy weak will not be a QE 3..Look out!!!
6-23 Bernanke says high oil prices hurting economy. Last year he said it did not hurt economy. So guess what the US will sell oil from reserves. How convenient. That will make you think about which way they are going with the dollar.
6-23 The moment of truth is here for the dollar and Gold. The last holdouts of this new trend change
Gold closes at 1500 below the 50 day but above its closing low of May 5 th of 1480. The dollar closes right on its reversal number of 76.21. Aussie holds 105 on the close but under the 1.0523 that I believe is a downtrend.
6-27 Too many bears time to shake them out
The news is so bad that the bulls are claiming to be contrarians now. They say that the problems are temporary and that stocks will rally by year end. Who knows why should a bad economy get in the way of a stock rally that is what has been going on for the past year.
6-28 New Mikey indicator overbought oversold for short term traders -80 oversold (a buy) +80 overbought (a sell). Green being buy red being a sell. Currently at +45 or mildly overbought
Stock of the day (SOTD) ACOM 41
6-29 Mikey Meter 99, (STOD) SQM 64.55 Exxon counts the Greek austerity vote oil spikes
6-30 Mikey Meter 127 extremely overbought, Mike index 94 also overbought, % W at 3.11 all the way up
The market has returned to its pivot line and last breakdown. This would be a logical place to stop.
STOD: RUE 32.50
7-1 Mikey meter 147 AD 5 day 7421 10 day 8815 Pivot line is 12350 that will be the reversal number to look for. STOD ALTR 47.53 RS 91 Dollar reverses down Stocks all over the world reverse up.
7-5 False sell off a nothing day. Gold up 30 bucks above 1500
7-6 QE 2 extends into July
7-7 Gasoline turns up market nears highs mikey meter at 136.
7-8 Weak jobs Stocks sell off bonds rally. Mikey meter still at overbought 125. STOD BHI 75.06 RS 90
ECRI falls to 1.8%
7-11 Dollar and US bonds reverse up on US debt problems. Thank God the Fed owns all those bonds.
7-13 Bernanke slams the dollar at the reversal. Commodities and stocks rally. The big debt deadline crisis appears on the evening news. Talk of the Bernanke Put on the market(don't fight the Fed)
7-14 Bernanke says no QE3 now colling off commodities. STOD ATHN 45.87 RS 87
7-15 Gold up 10 days in a row Options expire. Mikey meter at 1. Next options series starts a neutral.
 ECRI 128.4 annual rate 1.7%
7-18  First day out of expiration.  Market to neutral Meter at -37 STOD CF 151.56 RS 90
7-19 Pre Debt agreement reached, Mikey Meter -35, STOD INFA 54.94 RS 90, mkt to up, Aussie to up, Grains to up
7-20 Dollar rolls over AGAIN International debt turns up Markets are mixed. Mikey Meter at -29. Oil on verge of buy signal most commodities are resuming their uptrends. Europe, China, and emerging markets lagging.
7-21 Dollar nears lows. Gold and commodities sell off??? International debt back in uptrend Mikey Meter
-5, STOD AVGO 36.76 RS 91 Euro and PD turn up, High yield turns up International markets turn up
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