IBD goes to market in correction. The bull /bear ratio shows the Bulls are 2.3 to 1 over the Bears. The new survey came in at 49.5% Bulls and 21.5% Bears. That is a mind blower to me but they all feel that Ben has their back and will not let them lose. He will just trash the dollar some more. We all know how good that one worked.
They are blaming the lack of a debt agreement on the sell off. I say that it is the weak economy. The debt agreement is not a good thing for the economy. It means that the stimulus is over just as we are falling off of a cliff again.
In other words, the market is falling because their is GOING TO BE A DEBT AGREEMENT not because there is NOTgoing to be one. A debt agreemnt means less spending and that would be a good thing for the dollar and a bad thing for assets like Gold and Stocks.
Mikey
Closing Prices
US Stock Indexes
DJIA 12302.55 -198.75 S/P 500 1304.89 -29.05
NYSE Comp 8153.21-178.46 NASDAQ 2764.79 -75.17
S/P Midcap 950.04 -27.32 Russell 2000 800.53 -24.30
DJT 5206.35 -137.54 DJU 438.14 -.48
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1328% 2 yr .4301% 10 yr 2.96 30 yr 4.27
IEF (US10 yr)97.29 -.16 TLT (USLT)95.84 +.15
MUB (NatlMuni) 103.83 -.34 CalMuni (NCA)8.81 -.16
HYG (High Yield)90.82 -.72 PFF(Preferred) 38.95 -.25
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.60 -.17
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.61 -.23 (USCI ) 67.39 -.15
Gold 1615.10 +.50 Silver 40.56 -.12 Copper 4.45 uc
Platinum 1808-15.40 .Nickel (JJN) 35.87 +.68
Oil 97.40 -.13 RBOB 3.14 +.02 Nat Gas 4.32 +.01
Grains (JJG)51.46 +.06 Livestock (COW) 29.70 -.23
Cotton (BAL 63.95 +1.13 Agg complex(JJA) 61.53 +.05
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4314 -.0147 Pound 1.6221 -.0077 Swiss Franc 1.2341 -.0012
Yen 1.2647 -.0012 Aussie 1.1054 +.0062 Can$ 1.0556 +.0010
USD Index 74.06 +.03
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.44 -.01 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.22 +.05
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.84 -.32
All Markets Current Trends
World debt markets
US Bonds: 7-27 current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-27 current trend neutral
Intl Treas Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 7-25 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
US High Yield 7-27 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down
US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down
Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 7-11 current trend up
Gold: .7-6 current trend up
Silver: 7-13 current trend up
Copper 6-29 current trend up
Copper 6-29 current trend up
Platinum 7-21 current trend up
Palladium 7-7 current trend up
Palladium 7-7 current trend up
Nickel 7-13 current trend up
Grain complex 7-25 current trend down
Sugar 2-23 currevt trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 7-7 current trend up
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber 7-1 current trend neutral
Agg complex 7-13 current trend neutral
Oil 7-13 current trend neutral
Gasoline 7-7 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-25 current trend neutral
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 7-27 current trend neutral
Europe 7-1 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down
China: 6-3 current trend down
Brazil 7-1 current trend down
Japan 6-29 current trend up
India 7-27 current trend neutral
Russia 7-13 current trend up
Emerging Markets: 7-27 current trend neutral
Total world markets 7-27 current trend neutral
Total world markets 7-27 current trend neutral
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 7-21 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 7-19 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 7-19 current trend up
Euro 7-21 current trend up
Brit Pd 7-21 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up
Brit Pd 7-21 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 7-1 current trend up
Mexican Peso 7-20 current trend up
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up
Indian Rupe 6-30 current trend up
Trend changes:
World Stocks: India to neutral, US to neutral Emerg mkts and total world mkts to Neutral
Currencies:
Commodities: World Debt : Intl debt to neutral
World Debt: Intl debt to neutral, US High yield to neutral, Ca and Natl Muni to neutral
US Stock Market Trends
Currencies:
Commodities: World Debt : Intl debt to neutral
World Debt: Intl debt to neutral, US High yield to neutral, Ca and Natl Muni to neutral
US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term neutral 7-27 12302
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey DJI :7-27 Current trend neutral
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down
NASDAQ 7-19 Current trend neutral
Transports: 7-27 down
Transports: 7-27 down
Russell 2000: 7-27 down
IBD : 7-27 mkt in correction 12302
Stock of the day:
Stock of the day:
US markets short term technical trading indicators:
Mikey Overbought/Oversold Meter -60 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral, 80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 22.98 ,VXZ 50.17 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 68
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.05 10 day average .97
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.05 10 day average .97
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .74 10 day ave .80
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.14
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.14
Williams %R 12 day 96.81 Weekly 51.88
Bulls 49.5 Bears 21.5 Bull/Bear ratio 2.30
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 0 Weekly 5(1 low, 10 max)5 -5
Daily DJIA MACD +61.80 falling Neg cross 7-27
Weekly MACD +197.08 falling Negative cross 5-16
Bulls 49.5 Bears 21.5 Bull/Bear ratio 2.30
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 0 Weekly 5(1 low, 10 max)5 -5
Daily DJIA MACD +61.80 falling Neg cross 7-27
Weekly MACD +197.08 falling Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 27(12/7 429) New Lows (1-14 152 )108
NASDAQ New Highs 14 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 88
Advance/Declines
NASDAQ New Highs 14 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 88
Advance/Declines
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -2520 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1945
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 30122
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 30122
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (6-13 -2188) -1226
5 day AD NYSE -2520 NASDAQ -2734 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000) 5 day Mikey meter -60
5 day AD NYSE -2520 NASDAQ -2734 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000) 5 day Mikey meter -60
10 day AD NYSE -3592 (6000 OB -6000 OS) 10 day Mikey meter -47
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 46%
below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing
Days to option expiration 18
Stock of the day:
DJI Moving Averages
Stock of the day:
DJI Moving Averages
5 day 12560 falling/Price below
20 day 12527 Rising/ Price below
20 day 12527 Rising/ Price below
50 day 12334 Flat/Price below
90 day 12384 Rising /Price belwo
200 day 11966 Rising/Price above
90 day 12384 Rising /Price belwo
200 day 11966 Rising/Price above
20 week 12358 Rising/Price below
50 week 11719 Rising/ Price above
50 week 11719 Rising/ Price above
90 week 11142 Rising/Price above
200 week 10778 Falling/ Price above
Comments:
6-27 Too many bears time to shake them out
The news is so bad that the bulls are claiming to be contrarians now. They say that the problems are temporary and that stocks will rally by year end. Who knows why should a bad economy get in the way of a stock rally that is what has been going on for the past year.
6-28 New Mikey indicator overbought oversold for short term traders -80 oversold (a buy) +80 overbought (a sell). Green being buy red being a sell. Currently at +45 or mildly overbought
Stock of the day (SOTD) ACOM 41
6-29 Mikey Meter 99, (STOD) SQM 64.55 Exxon counts the Greek austerity vote oil spikes
6-30 Mikey Meter 127 extremely overbought, Mike index 94 also overbought, % W at 3.11 all the way up
The market has returned to its pivot line and last breakdown. This would be a logical place to stop.
STOD: RUE 32.50
7-1 Mikey meter 147 AD 5 day 7421 10 day 8815 Pivot line is 12350 that will be the reversal number to look for. STOD ALTR 47.53 RS 91 Dollar reverses down Stocks all over the world reverse up.
7-5 False sell off a nothing day. Gold up 30 bucks above 1500
7-6 QE 2 extends into July
7-7 Gasoline turns up market nears highs mikey meter at 136.
7-8 Weak jobs Stocks sell off bonds rally. Mikey meter still at overbought 125. STOD BHI 75.06 RS 90
ECRI falls to 1.8%
7-11 Dollar and US bonds reverse up on US debt problems. Thank God the Fed owns all those bonds.
7-13 Bernanke slams the dollar at the reversal. Commodities and stocks rally. The big debt deadline crisis appears on the evening news. Talk of the Bernanke Put on the market(don't fight the Fed)
7-14 Bernanke says no QE3 now colling off commodities. STOD ATHN 45.87 RS 87
7-15 Gold up 10 days in a row Options expire. Mikey meter at 1. Next options series starts a neutral.
ECRI 128.4 annual rate 1.7%
7-18 First day out of expiration. Market to neutral Meter at -37 STOD CF 151.56 RS 90
7-19 Pre Debt agreement reached, Mikey Meter -35, STOD INFA 54.94 RS 90, mkt to up, Aussie to up, Grains to up
7-20 Dollar rolls over AGAIN International debt turns up Markets are mixed. Mikey Meter at -29. Oil on verge of buy signal most commodities are resuming their uptrends. Europe, China, and emerging markets lagging.
7-21 Dollar nears lows. Gold and commodities sell off??? International debt back in uptrend Mikey Meter -5, STOD AVGO 36.76 RS 91 Euro and PD turn up, High yield turns up International markets turn up
7-22 Pre debt agreement breaks up dollar tanks STOD HS RS 95 Mikey meter -36 market slightly OS
High Yield debt to up
7-25 Debt talks taken public flame is turned up on the public STOD FEIC 36.57 RS 94. mikey meter at -47 indicating downward pressure over the last 10 days.
7-27 AD line tanking, Mikey meter -60, Daily MACD Negative cross, DJI closes at 50 day, DJT and Russel 2000 break down to 200 day, less than 50% of all NYSE stocks are above their 200 day averages. IBD goes to market in correction Mikey goes to neutral.
7-20 Dollar rolls over AGAIN International debt turns up Markets are mixed. Mikey Meter at -29. Oil on verge of buy signal most commodities are resuming their uptrends. Europe, China, and emerging markets lagging.
7-21 Dollar nears lows. Gold and commodities sell off??? International debt back in uptrend Mikey Meter -5, STOD AVGO 36.76 RS 91 Euro and PD turn up, High yield turns up International markets turn up
7-22 Pre debt agreement breaks up dollar tanks STOD HS RS 95 Mikey meter -36 market slightly OS
High Yield debt to up
7-25 Debt talks taken public flame is turned up on the public STOD FEIC 36.57 RS 94. mikey meter at -47 indicating downward pressure over the last 10 days.
7-27 AD line tanking, Mikey meter -60, Daily MACD Negative cross, DJI closes at 50 day, DJT and Russel 2000 break down to 200 day, less than 50% of all NYSE stocks are above their 200 day averages. IBD goes to market in correction Mikey goes to neutral.
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