Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Whipsaw!! Markets give up last week of gains ...Return to downtrend

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12290.14 -279.65 SPX 1314.55 -30.65  NASDAQ 2769.19 -66.11
MDY 177.20 -5.38 Russell 2000 821.40 -26.90  DJT 5283.57 -185.98 DJU 431.52 -4.85
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1094%  2 yr .4448% 10 yr 2.96 -.09 30 yr 4.15 -.08
IEF(US10 yr) 97.10 +.51 TLT (USLT) 97.45 +.76
MUB (NatlMuni)103.57 -.38 CalMuni (NCA)8.85 -.05
HYG (High Yield)91.18 -1.21 PFF(Preferred) 39.81 -.28
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 81.87 +.18
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)29.59 -.66  (USCI) 66.62 -.99
Gold 1542.40 +6.30 Silver 37.68 -.72 Copper 4.10 -.08
Platinum 1823.90 -10.10 Nickel (JJN) 34.10 -.39
Oil 100.49 -2.41 RBOB 2.98 -.07 Nat Gas 4.63 -.03
Grains (JJG)54.25 -.01  Livestock (COW) 27.70 -.35
Cotton (BAL) 89.31 +1.75 Agg complex(JJA) 63.27 -.50
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0616 -.0099  Euro 1.4280 -.0058 Pound 1.6227 -.0115
Yen 1.2192 +.0086 Can$ 1.0184 -.0083 USD Index 74.73 +.04
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.64 -.26 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.08 -.09
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.76 -.15

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-27 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 5-27 current trend up\
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up weakening

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend down
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 5-27 current trend neutral
Copper 6-1 current trend down
Platinum 5-27 current trend up
Palladium 5-27  current trend up
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 5-27 current trend neutral 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :5-6. current trend down
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-27 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 6-1 current trend down
Europe 5-31 current trend nuetral
China: 5-31 current trend neutral
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .5-31.. current trend neutral
Total world markets 5-31 current trend neutral

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 5-27 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 5-27 current trend up
Euro 5-13  current trend down
Brit Pd 5-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 5-27 current trend nuetral
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up
Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend nuetral

Trend changes:

World stock markets: US, down
Emerging Markets, Total World markets all neutral
Currencies Euro down, Peso Neutral
Commodities: Oil, Agg, commodity index down Grains neutral

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term down 6-1  
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 
Mikey: 6-1 NYSE Current trend down 12290
Mikey: NASDAQ 6-1 Current trend down 2767
IBD : 6-1 Market in correction 12290

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 18.30 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .87
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.06  10 day average .87
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .77  10 day ave .92
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.19   
Williams %R 12 day -97.77 Weekly -44.31
Bulls 45.2  Bears 20.4  Bull/Bear ratio 2.21
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 0 Weekly 6 (1 low, 10 max) 6 -6
DJIA MACD --23.15 Falling /Negative cross 5-9
Weekly MACD +320.81 Falling / Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 104(12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 34
NASDAQ New Highs 73 (12-7 352) New Lows (3-15 131) 73
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -1934 NASDAQ  Advance-Decline -1762
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-31 33958)+32024
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +3236
5 day AD NYSE +3295 NASDAQ +1908  NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000) 
 % above 200 day ave 65 %
Days to option expiration :12

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12419 Falling/Price below
20 day 12542 Falling/ Price below
50 day 12456 Rising/Price below
90 day 12292 Rising/Price below
200 day 11621 Rising/Price above
20 week 12263 Rising/Price above
50 week 11434 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10949 Rising/Price above
200 week 10819 Flat/Price above

Comments:
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to downtrend, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening.  Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week.
5-5 IBD Market in correction. Oil -9.00 and Gold -34.00 joined the commodity sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC'S are all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bonds had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar Index +1.14. Commodities index in downtrend Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver free falls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trend line drawn from its Sept lows.
5-6 jobs numbers show economy is growing.  Oversold rally today. Oil 98.08 changed to downtrend today. Mikey buys DXD @ 16.60
5-9 oversold rally continues. Margin on oil increased to 25% by CME for tomorrow trades. Commodities rally and dollar sells off. Traders still in the dark about Fed intentions
5-11 Decline resumes Dollar Index at 50 day ave. All commodities are in decline except Gold and Gasoline
5-12 Blog not posted unable to access
5-13 Dollar potential reversal up Brazil Real, British Pd, Euro, Loony, all downgraded to downtrends
Emerging markets, Japan, China markets downgraded to downtrend. Coffee downgraded to downtrend
International bonds downgraded to correcting. US market hanging on to 20 day average. Gasoline downgraded to correcting.
5-16 Gasoline tanks .14 enters downtrend NASDAQ enters downtrend, DJI breaks 20 day ave. All commodities in downtrend except Gold. Soros sells most of Gold holdings
5-17 3 days to options expiration and the 5 day  AD NYSE -4203 NASDAQ -4008  both are now oversold and the puts ran at .92 with heavy out premium of 1.12 today I would expect the crooks to rally into and probably out of expiration to waste the put buyers.
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend
5-27 Dollar reverses down assets reverse up
5-31 IBD and Mikey current trend up
6-1 Whipsaw selloff 10 yr rates 2.96, 30 year to 4.15 6 month lows. Economic weakness story being told for the first time


The economy is weak story is being told now. The story also includes the idea that the Fed may not catch it now. That along with the 270 points off the DJI and the 6 month highs in the US bond markets (you know who owns the bonds)  are potential game changers now. They need lower rates and lower commodity prices to get the economy going. The Real Estate world is coming to an end story is being piggy backed on top of this. Add it the government is cutting spending story and well you get the picture. The bull/ bears are still a very strongly bullish 2.21 to 1 bullish so the players are going to get blindsided on this one. Gold is still holding up but it is a sitting duck when the dust shakes out.  I am now back to downtrend in the markets after a one day uptrend. When or if the players conclude that the Fed is not there anymore this thing will lose 1000 points in a blink

Mikey
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)