Get ready for a different world

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 11934.58 -115.42  S/P 500 1268.45 -15.05
NYSE Comp  7974.72 -79.36 NASDAQ 2652.89 -33.86
S/P Midcap 946.00 -7.65 Russell 2000 797.79 -4.89
DJT 5214.15 -88.48  DJU 423.99 +.56
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0712%  2 yr .333% 10 yr 2.87 30 yr 4.18
IEF(US10 yr)98.03 +.39 TLT (USLT) 97.08 -.31
MUB (NatlMuni) 103.88 +.19 CalMuni (NCA)8.87 -.03
HYG (High Yield) 89.47 -.43 PFF(Preferred) 39.22 -.05
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 82.21 +.24
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC) 28.26 -.34 (USCI )63.12 -.24  
Gold 1500.90 -19.60 Silver 34.63 -.36 Copper 4.10 +.06
Platinum 1687 -16.90 Nickel (JJN) 32.18 -.32
Oil 91.16 +.14 RBOB 2.77 -.07 Nat Gas 4.22 +.03
Grains (JJG)48.66 -.90 Livestock (COW) 29.89 -.19
Cotton (BAL) 75.78 +.73 Agg complex(JJA)58.85 -.73
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0523 -.0035 Euro 1.4141 -.0069 Pound 1.5852 -.0050
Yen 1.2259 +.0014 Can$ 1.0075 -.0094 USD Index 76.21 +.30
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.40 -.19 PCY(EmerMkt) 26.99 -.01
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.54 -.21

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 6-23 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 6-23 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
US High Yield 6-1 current trend down
US Preferred Stocks 6-13 current trend down

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend down
Gold: .6-23 current trend nuetral
Silver: 6-3 current trend down
Copper 6-1 current trend down
Platinum 6-15 current trend down
Palladium 6-23  current trend down
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 6-6 current trend down 
Sugar 2-23 currevt trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 6-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :5-6. current trend down
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 6-20 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 6-1 current trend down
Europe 6-6 current trend up
China: 6-3 current trend down
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .6-6 current trend down
Total world markets 6-3 current trend down

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 6-15 current trend neutral
Aussie Dollar 6-24 current trend down
Euro 6-23  current trend down
Brit Pd 6-16  current trend down

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 6-6 current trend down
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend neutral

Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend neutral

Trend changes:
Currencies Aussie to down
World stock markets:  
Commodities: Gold to neutral
World Debt markets: International corp to down, International Sovrneign to down

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term down 6-1  
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 
Mikey: 6-1 NYSE Current trend down 12290
Mikey: NASDAQ 6-1 Current trend down 2767
IBD : 6-1 Market in correction 12290

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 21.10 VXZ 53.72 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .76
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.05 10 day average  .96
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .98 10 day ave 1.21
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.19   
Williams %R 12 day 78.21 Weekly 92.37
Bulls 37.6   Bears 28  Bull/Bear ratio 1.34
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 2 Weekly 1 (1 low, 10 max)3,1
DJIA MACD -108 Falling  /Positive cross 6-21
Weekly MACD +173.81 Falling/ Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 56 (12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 )40
NASDAQ New Highs 63 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 54
Advance/Declines
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -814   NASDAQ  Advance-Decline -448
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-31 33958)+28092  
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (6-13 -2188) -1252
5 day AD NYSE +1394  NASDAQ +794 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)  
10 day AD NYSE +1456 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
 % above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 50 %
 below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing
Days to option expiration 16

DJI Moving Averages
5 day 12073  Flat/Price below
20 day 12112  Falling/ Price below
50 day 12376  Falling/Price below
90 day 12285  Falling /Price below
200 day 11776 Rising/Price above
20 week 12286  Falling /Price below
50 week 11543 Rising/ Price above
90 week 11022 Rising/Price above
200 week 10795 Falling/ Price above

Comments:
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend
5-27 Dollar reverses down assets reverse up
5-31 IBD and Mikey current trend up
6-1 Whipsaw selloff 10 yr rates 2.96, 30 year to 4.15 6 month lows. Economic weakness story being told for the first time High Yield falling apart indicates credit quality problems coming
Mikey and IBD current trend down
6-3 Bad jobs number story turns decidedly negative
6-6 All world markets now in downtrends Fed remains quiet Mikey Shorts COH@ 60.32, SPG@ 114.92   EWZ @73.22,Buys DZZ@ 6.53, Buys EDZ @18.54 
6-7 Bernanke says economy is weaker says nothing about what the Fed will do. The Dallas Feds Fisher says the Fed has done enough it is now up to the government to make the right fiscal policies.
6-8 Bull bear comes in at 1.86 to 1 bulls after a 800 point decline. Mikey Nasdaq A/D line goes negative for the first time since last August. New lows for this index are higher than March and also the highest since August or pre QE2. In other words the Nasdaq has given up everything it gained on QE2. Put calls are starting to run hot at 1.15 and there is a week and 2 days until expiration. End of Qtr is approaching and the tone is getting negative.
6-9 oversold rally 5 Day was at -4000 for both the NAS and DJI and after today it is at -3300 and -3200 with the Put call at 1.01 and .95 on 10 day more rally may be needed.
6-10 Dollar up strongly to its 50 day ave. market breaks down 172
6-13 Precious metals hit. According to IBD 47% of the stocks are now above their 200 day average the lowest reading of the year. Preferred stocks trend  to down. Keeping my eye on National and Calif Muni markets as they are weakening. The trend is toward quality and away from risk.
Bought BZQ today @ 16.18
6-14 Going into this week put buying was heavy and now....options expiration are just 3 days away poof there go the puts up in smoke with the rally. Like I said 80% of options expire worthless and these counter trend rallies are the reason.

6-15 Dollar back above the 50 day and making a run at reversing trend. Euro and Pd tank. Oil drops 4.49 Platinum now in downtrend only Gold remains up. When it breaks the signal for deflation and economic weakness will be given. Bull/Bear now 36 to 27 or 1.42 bullish 10 day, NYSE AD line at oversold -5788

6-16 Dollar on verge of blowing up Options expire triple witch tomorrow

They talk about Greece but the truth is ( I hate to even deal with reality) the world economy is sinking fast along with the commodities. All the major currencies are falling now against the dollar the Aussie is the strongest and the last to go below 10523 should get someones attention, it does mine.

6-17 Dollar pushed down into expiration

6-20 Working off oversold.

6-21 Greece vote. Market is not oversold now.

6-22 Fed say economy weak will not be a QE 3..Look out!!!

6-23 Bernanke says high oil prices hurting economy. Last year he said it did not hurt economy. So guess what the US will sell oil from reserves. How convenient. That will make you think about which way they are going with the dollar.

6-23 The moment of truth is here for the dollar and Gold. The last holdouts of this new trend change

Gold closes at 1500 below the 50 day but above its closing low of May 5 th of 1480. The dollar closes right on its reversal number of 76.21. Aussie holds 105 on the close but under the 1.0523 that I believe is a downtrend.

It is very clear to me that the world leaders want lower commodity prices. That will come at the expense of world economic growth. The central player in the news this week was Greece but the real news is that the commodities markets are in full retreat now. Gold was hit 50 bucks in the last two trading sessions. That is interesting given the Greece problem. The strength in the dollar is overruling the Gold price now.

Gold is the sacred cow in the markets. The central bankers have been selling it to the public for the last two years. Gold is a religion not an investment. It will not be believed when Gold tanks and the dollar reverses. This will not make sense but remember in a virtual reality anything can and does happen. Gold is just another tool that is used to deliver a message. The next message it will be giving is one of deflation and falling economies.

The strength in the dollar is because of the relative strength of the us economy, which has been pumping liquidity into the system for the past 3 years and the World currencies which have been raising rates and draining liquidity for the past 1 year. The purpose of which is to kill inflation. It is now working and the trends have changed.

This week Bernanke came clean about the economy (well almost) and also said no QE 3. It is up to each investor to interpret that message. To me it means that the Fed is going to lift the vail it has lowered over the economy for the last 9 months and reveal a bleaker picture of the economy worldwide. The winners are going to be the dollar and US bonds and the holders of those instruments, the Fed.

Mikey