Bernanke: Economy weaker than we forecasted no QE 3 Oh Really???

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12109.67 -80.34 S/P 500 1287.14 -8.38
NYSE Comp 8101.84 -54.43 NASDAQ 2669.19 -18.07
S/P Midcap 953.94 -4.36 Russell 2000 799.87 -6.50
DJT 5288.20 -12.37 DJU 427.37 -2.43
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0865%  2 yr .3702% 10 yr 2.97 30 yr 4.20
IEF(US10 yr) 97.13 -.04 TLT (USLT) 96.90 +.31 
MUB (NatlMuni) 103.76 -.10 CalMuni (NCA)8.88 +.04
HYG (High Yield) 89.41 -.66 PFF(Preferred) 39.28 +.03
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 81.77 +.02
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC) 29.22 +.13 (USCI ) 64.72 -.31
Gold 1552.90 +6.70 Silver 36.73 +.36 Copper 4.09 +.01
Platinum 1752.40 +5.20 Nickel (JJN) 32.48 +1.14
Oil 95.41 +1.34 RBOB 2.96 +.07 Nat Gas 4.31 -.08
Grains (JJG)49.78 -1.85 Livestock (COW) 30.14 -.41
Cotton (BAL) 75.48 -1.62 Agg complex(JJA)59.62 -1.79
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0643 +.0013 Euro 1.4273 -.0078 Pound 1.5957 -.0180
Yen 1.2255 -.0052 Can$ 1.0205 -.0021 USD Index 75.19 +.26
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.95 -.12 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.02 -.03
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.98 +.03

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-27 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 5-27 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
US High Yield 6-1 current trend down
US Preferred Stocks 6-13 current trend down

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend down
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 6-3 current trend down
Copper 6-1 current trend down
Platinum 5-27 current trend down
Palladium 5-27  current trend neutral
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 6-6 current trend down 
Sugar 2-23 currevt trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 6-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :5-6. current trend down
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-27 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 6-1 current trend down
Europe 6-6 current trend up
China: 6-3 current trend down
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .6-6 current trend down
Total world markets 6-3 current trend down

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 6-6 current trend neutral
Aussie Dollar 6-10 current trend neutral
Euro 6-6  current trend down
Brit Pd 6-6 current trend down

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 6-6 current trend down
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend neutral

Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend neutral

Trend changes:
Currencies
World stock markets:  
Commodities:
World Debt markets: International corp to up, International Sovrneign to up

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term down 6-1  
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 
Mikey: 6-1 NYSE Current trend down 12290
Mikey: NASDAQ 6-1 Current trend down 2767
IBD : 6-1 Market in correction 12290

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 18.52 VXZ 52.68 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .86
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .87 10 day average  .93
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .98 10 day ave 1.26
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.19   
Williams %R 12 day 30.34  Weekly 75.36
Bulls 37.6   Bears 28  Bull/Bear ratio 1.34
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 3 Weekly 3 (1 low, 10 max)6,0
DJIA MACD -107.31 Rising /Positive cross 6-21
Weekly MACD +187.60  Falling/ Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 73 (12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 24
NASDAQ New Highs 61 (12-7 352) New Lows (6-10 162) 47
Advance/Declines
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -517  NASDAQ  Advance-Decline -843
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-31 33958)+29386
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (6-13 -2188) -989
5 day AD NYSE +3150  NASDAQ +1189 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)  
10 day AD NYSE +1746 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
 % above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 53 %
 below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing
Days to option expiration 19

DJI Moving Averages
5 day 12069  Rising/Price above
20 day 12152  Falling/ Price below
50 day 12387  Falling/Price below
90 day 12291  Flat /Price below
200 day 11760 Rising/Price above
20 week 12294 Rising/Price below
50 week 11509 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10994 Rising/Price above
200 week 10802 Flat Price above

Comments:
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend
5-27 Dollar reverses down assets reverse up
5-31 IBD and Mikey current trend up
6-1 Whipsaw selloff 10 yr rates 2.96, 30 year to 4.15 6 month lows. Economic weakness story being told for the first time High Yield falling apart indicates credit quality problems coming
Mikey and IBD current trend down
6-3 Bad jobs number story turns decidedly negative
6-6 All world markets now in downtrends Fed remains quiet Mikey Shorts COH@ 60.32, SPG@ 114.92   EWZ @73.22,Buys DZZ@ 6.53, Buys EDZ @18.54 
6-7 Bernanke says economy is weaker says nothing about what the Fed will do. The Dallas Feds Fisher says the Fed has done enough it is now up to the government to make the right fiscal policies.
6-8 Bull bear comes in at 1.86 to 1 bulls after a 800 point decline. Mikey Nasdaq A/D line goes negative for the first time since last August. New lows for this index are higher than March and also the highest since August or pre QE2. In other words the Nasdaq has given up everything it gained on QE2. Put calls are starting to run hot at 1.15 and there is a week and 2 days until expiration. End of Qtr is approaching and the tone is getting negative.
6-9 oversold rally 5 Day was at -4000 for both the NAS and DJI and after today it is at -3300 and -3200 with the Put call at 1.01 and .95 on 10 day more rally may be needed.
6-10 Dollar up strongly to its 50 day ave. market breaks down 172
6-13 Precious metals hit. According to IBD 47% of the stocks are now above their 200 day average the lowest reading of the year. Preferred stocks trend  to down. Keeping my eye on National and Calif Muni markets as they are weakening. The trend is toward quality and away from risk.
Bought BZQ today @ 16.18
6-14 Going into this week put buying was heavy and now....options expiration are just 3 days away poof there go the puts up in smoke with the rally. Like I said 80% of options expire worthless and these counter trend rallies are the reason.

6-15 Dollar back above the 50 day and making a run at reversing trend. Euro and Pd tank. Oil drops 4.49 Platinum now in downtrend only Gold remains up. When it breaks the signal for deflation and economic weakness will be given. Bull/Bear now 36 to 27 or 1.42 bullish 10 day, NYSE AD line at oversold -5788

6-16 Dollar on verge of blowing up Options expire triple witch tomorrow

They talk about Greece but the truth is ( I hate to even deal with reality) the world economy is sinking fast along with the commodities. All the major currencies are falling now against the dollar the Aussie is the strongest and the last to go below 10523 should get someones attention, it does mine.

6-17 Dollar pushed down into expiration

6-20 Working off oversold.

6-21 Greece vote. Market is not oversold now.

6-22 Fed say economy weak will not be a QE 3..Look out!!!

The Fed say the economy is weaker than they had forecasted. Good thing they bought all those long term bonds to help us out (sarcasm intended). They say thing are going to get better and they imply that inflation and oil prices are going to fall. That will be easy if they don't print and step back, which is what I think this statement was all about today. The dollar rallied and the agg markets tanked. I would expect that somebody is going to wise up about what they are doing and start selling but today they seemed to be scratching their heads and saying that it will be OK. I think the Fed, which is going to stop buying bonds at the end of the month will be selling them to meet the demand once the dominoes start to fall.  Trend changes today the Euro and the Brit Pd to down.

Mikey