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Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

World markets turn back up..Nat Gas on verge of major trend reversal

Closing Prices


US Stocks
DJIA 12569.79 +126.31 SPX 1345.20 +14.10 NASDAQ 2835.30 +38.44
MDY 182.54 +2.65 Russell 2000 848.30 +12.04 DJT 5469.55 +60.97
DJU 436.37 +2.83
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1017%  2 yr .4764% 10 yr 3.07 uc 30 yr 4.23 -.01
IEF(US10 yr) 96.62 +.18 TLT (USLT) 96.66 +.19
MUB (NatlMuni)103.95 +.40 CalMuni (NCA) 8.90 +.02
HYG (High Yield) 92.39 +.09 PFF(Preferred) 40.15 +.08
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 81.73 +.15
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.10 +.02 (USCI)67.65 +.50
Gold 1535.90 -.40 Silver 38.40 +.44 Copper 4.18 UC
Platinum 1834 +34.00 Nickel (JJN) 34.50 +.78 
Oil 102.70 +2.11 RBOB 3.05 -.04 Nat Gas 4.66 +.15
Grains (JJG)54.26 -1.03 Livestock (COW) 28.05 +.10
Cotton (BAL) 87.55 +2.78 Agg complex(JJA) 63.77 -.41
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0719 -.0010 Euro 1.4336 +.0101 Pound 1.6339 +.0031
Yen 1.2104 -.0103 Can$ 1.0267 +.0091 USD Index 74.69 -.33
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.90 +.26 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.17 +.21
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.91 +.22

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-27 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 5-27 current trend up\
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up weakening

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend neutral
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 5-27 current trend neutral
Copper 5-27 current trend neutral
Platinum 5-27 current trend up
Palladium 5-27  current trend up
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 5-27 current trend up 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend neutral
Oil :5-6. current trend neutral
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-27 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 5-31 current trend up
Europe 5-31 current trend up
China: 5-31 current trend up
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .5-31.. current trend up
Total world markets 5-31 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 5-27 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 5-27 current trend up
Euro 5-13  current trend down
Brit Pd 5-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 5-27 current trend up
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up
Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend nuetral

Trend changes:

World stock markets: US, Europe, China, Emerging Markets, Total World markets all up

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term neutral 5-27 12441
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29
Mikey: 5-31 NYSE Current trend UP 12569
Mikey: NASDAQ 5-31 TREND UP 2835
IBD : MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND 12569

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.45 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .98
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .67 10 day average .86
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .79  10 day ave .96
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -36.05 Weekly -23.28
Bulls 43  Bears 19.4  Bull/Bear ratio 2.21
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 6 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) 14 -2
DJIA MACD -7.08 Rising/ Negative cross 5-9
Weekly MACD +343.03  Falling / Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 224(12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 10
NASDAQ New Highs 136 (12-7 352) New Lows (3-15 131) 45
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1567 NASDAQ  Advance-Decline +1010
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-31 33958)+33958
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +4998
5 day AD NYSE +5006 NASDAQ +3117 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000) NYSE OB
 % above 200 day ave 72 %
Days to option expiration :13

DJI Moving Averages


5 day 12432 Rising/Price above
20 day 12568 Falling/ Price above
50 day 12451 Rising/Price above
90 day 12287 Rising/Price above
200 day 11611 Rising/Price above
20 week 12759 Rising/Price above
50 week 11390 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10916 Rising/Price above
200 week 10819 Flat/Price above

Comments:
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to downtrend, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening.  Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week.
5-5 IBD Market in correction. Oil -9.00 and Gold -34.00 joined the commodity sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC'S are all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bonds had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar Index +1.14. Commodities index in downtrend Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver free falls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trend line drawn from its Sept lows.
5-6 jobs numbers show economy is growing.  Oversold rally today. Oil 98.08 changed to downtrend today. Mikey buys DXD @ 16.60
5-9 oversold rally continues. Margin on oil increased to 25% by CME for tomorrow trades. Commodities rally and dollar sells off. Traders still in the dark about Fed intentions
5-11 Decline resumes Dollar Index at 50 day ave. All commodities are in decline except Gold and Gasoline
5-12 Blog not posted unable to access
5-13 Dollar potential reversal up Brazil Real, British Pd, Euro, Loony, all downgraded to downtrends
Emerging markets, Japan, China markets downgraded to downtrend. Coffee downgraded to downtrend
International bonds downgraded to correcting. US market hanging on to 20 day average. Gasoline downgraded to correcting.
5-16 Gasoline tanks .14 enters downtrend NASDAQ enters downtrend, DJI breaks 20 day ave. All commodities in downtrend except Gold. Soros sells most of Gold holdings
5-17 3 days to options expiration and the 5 day  AD NYSE -4203 NASDAQ -4008  both are now oversold and the puts ran at .92 with heavy out premium of 1.12 today I would expect the crooks to rally into and probably out of expiration to waste the put buyers.
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend
5-27 Dollar reverses down assets reverse up
5-31 IBD and Mikey current trend up


Notice how first the dollar fell then last week the commodities rallied, now the world markets turn up. It is so so controlled. That of course is the game now and that is what we have to work with. The 5 day is overbought with 5006 net advances. The last time that happened was on 4-26 or 4 days before the top. Put/ calls fell to a 3 week low of .67 would expect them to fall for a few more days. I do not believe this rally and I am looking to short this move probably in a week or so. Nat Gas closed above the 200 day average for the first time in 3 years. It appears to me as it is is forming a major long term bottom.



Natural Gas




Mikey
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