Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, May 2, 2011

US gets Bin Laden...Time for the dollar???

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12807.36 -3.18 SPX 1361.22 -2.39 NASDAQ 2864.08 -9.46  
Russell 2000 854.77 -10.52 DJT 5507.77 -7.10 DJU 428.55 -.51
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1017 %  2 yr .6052% 10 yr 3.28 uc 30 yr 4.38 -.01
IEF(US10 yr) 94.20 -.27  TLT (US LT) 93.70 -.19
MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.71 -.18 Calif Muni (NCA) 8.64 +.04
HYG (High Yield) 92.24 -.61 PFF(Preferred) 39.78 -.28
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.76 -.20
Commodities
Commodities Index (DBC) 31.79 -.11
Gold 1539.40 -17.00 Silver 44.53 -4.05 Copper 4.18 +.02
Platinum 1860.10 -4.40 Nickel (JJN)39.00 +.38
Oil 112.97 -.55 RBOB 3.33 -.07 Nat Gas 4.69 -.01
Grains (JJG) 121.08 -1.04 Livestock (COW) 30.23 -.30
Cotton (BAL)85.48 -2.52 Agg complex(JJA) 63.97 -.93   
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0943 -.0054 Euro 1.4742 -.0012 Pound 1.6535 -.0039
Yen 1.2152 -.0018 Can$ 1.0456 -.0055  USD Index 73.14 +.04
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.79 +.04 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.77 +.06
IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.69 +.03

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Palladium 5-2 Neutral
Nickel  4-28 current trend neutral
Grain complex 4-28 Neutral 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up
Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up
Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
Mikey: 4-28 12763 Caution advisory..no long positions
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend


US markets short term  technical trading indicators:


VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.99
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .96
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .77   10 day average .80
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .69   10 day ave .73
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -8.86 weekly -5.25
Bulls 54.3   Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +153.72 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +411.62 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 344 (12/7 429)  New Lows 14
NASDAQ New Highs 185 (12-7 352) New Lows 27
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -505  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -986
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-29 32806)+32301   NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +7320
5 day AD NYSE +3356 NASDAQ +942
NYSE % above 200 day ave 77 %
Days to option expiration: 14

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.
4-28 weakness in commodity rank and file spreading Corn -3.24%, Agg complex -3.05% , Lead -1.66%
Indicator off the charts overbought indicates almost no fear.
Mikey issues market overbought advisory...caution @12763
4-29 Bonds and stocks moving up together that is like the wolves taking care of the lambs
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12733  Rising/Price above
20 day 12456 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12250 Rising/Price above
90 day 12089 Rising/Price above
200 day 11401 Rising/Price above
20 week 12067 Rising/Price above
50 week 11197 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10778 Rising/Price above
200 week 10841  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27
4-27 Short JJC @ 56.58
5-2 Buy ERY @ 13.14 Stop @ 11.14

They finally got Bin Lad den. The reaction by the government is the same as when George Bush flew on the aircraft carrier and declared mission accomplished. You make you own judgements on this. Well Gold and Silver and all the commodities had a bad day but I am very sure that no one believes this sell off will carry. It was a nice down day for just about everything stocks included which saw 505 net declines on the NYSE and 986 net declines on the NASDAQ. The smaller caps continue to under perform the large caps.

I bought my initial position on the ERY 3X Oil stocks short and I have a stop just under 12.00. I will not average down on this one but am taking a shot that this is the low. Interesting day overall will see if it has legs. One signal today Agg complex gave a sell signal (JAA) joining copper, lumber, cotton, and livestock in a downtrend. Palladium (PALL) is neutral and close to turing negative. The weakness is spreading in commodities but has not hit the oil or gold. Silver was hit 4.00 today but that is still fsr from a sell even though I bought the ZSL at 24.05 and at 15.40. It closed at 15.90 today.

Mikey
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)