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Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

"Risk Trade" becoming risky or have you invested all you mattress money yet??

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12807.51 +.15 SPX 1356.62 -4.60 NASDAQ 2841.62 -22.46
Russell 2000 843.77 -11.00  DJT 5478.04 -29.73 DJU 432.18 +.85
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0865 %  2 yr .6013% 10 yr 3.24 -.04 30 yr 4.35 -.03
IEF(US10 yr) 94.45 +.25 TLT (US LT) 94.18 +.54
MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.67 -.04 Calif Muni (NCA) 8.64 UC
HYG (High Yield) 92.35 +.12 PFF(Preferred) 39.83 +.05
BND (Total Bond Mkt)80.83 +.07
Commodities
Commodities Index (DBC) 31.25 -1.04
Gold 1540 +.40  Silver 42.57 -1.96 Copper 4.23 +.05
Platinum 1860.50 Nickel (JJN)39.80 +.80
Oil 111.05 -1.92 RBOB 3.32 -.01 Nat Gas 4.67 -.02
Grains (JJG) 53.41 -.67 Livestock (COW) 29.60 -.64
Cotton (BAL)86.77 +1.29 Agg complex(JJA) 63.44 -.64
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 108.75 -.0071 Euro 1.4762 -.0012 Pound 1.6365 -.0185
Yen 1.2192 +.0040 Can$ 104.35 -.0021  USD Index 73.31 +.17
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.52 -.27 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.85 +.08
IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.68 -.01
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Palladium 5-2 Neutral
Nickel  4-28 current trend neutral
Grain complex 4-28 Neutral 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up
Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up
Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
Mikey: 4-28 12763 Caution advisory..no long positions
IBD : 5-3 market under pressure



US markets short term  technical trading indicators:


VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 16.70
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .93
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .55   10 day average .75
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .78   10 day ave .73
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -8.75 weekly -5.19
Bulls 54.3  Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +165.63 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +411.72 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 140(12/7 429)  New Lows 23
NASDAQ New Highs 66 (12-7 352) New Lows 38
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -907  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1042
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-29 32806)+31394  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +6278
5 day AD NYSE +1098 NASDAQ -807
NYSE % above 200 day ave 74 %
Days to option expiration: 13


Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
Mikey buys ZSL @ 24.05
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.
Mikey shorts JJC @ 56.58
4-28 weakness in commodity rank and file spreading Corn -3.24%, Agg complex -3.05% , Lead -1.66%
Indicator off the charts overbought indicates almost no fear.
Mikey issues market overbought advisory...caution @12763
4-29 Bonds and stocks moving up together that is like the wolves taking care of the lambs
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12799 Rising/Price above
20 day 12497 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12270 Rising/Price above
90 day 12116 Rising/Price above
200 day 11428 Rising/Price above
20 week 12067 Rising/Price above
50 week 11197 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10778 Rising/Price above
200 week 10841  Flat/Price above

The point of this Fed scam is to get everyone to invest every last drop of savings to keep corporate America rolling in cash. They way it is done is by dropping interest rates to a level that strong arms the money right out of the bank accounts and into the Fed supported market. The truth is that they will only support it for so long. When the folks have invested their mattress money the gig is up. Game over. We are coming to that end game or as the Fed calls it the exit strategy. That is where the little guy as Granville tells it is left holding the bag.

The past two days have been different. The standard marching orders are not being followed. The DJI is masking the decline. I think the market is due to follow the commodities down. No trend changes to report today but the Russian market looks like it is about to jump off of the cliff it has been walking on. The Aussie like eerily like the silver chart of 1 week ago and today was the first day it got hit. Things may be getting interesting very soon

Mikey.
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