Commodities...The new Real Estate..Leverage combined with blind faith is a recipe for disaster

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12584.17 -139.41 SPX 1335.10 -12.22 NASDAQ 2814.72 -13.51  
Russell 2000 829.24 -3.66 DJT 5454.12 +61.41 DJU 427.91 -3.03

US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0636%  2 yr .5891% 10 yr 3.15 -.06 30 yr 4.27 -.05
IEF(US10 yr) 95.19 +.50 TLT (US LT) 95.22 +.63
MUB (LT Natl Muni)102.25 +.25 Calif Muni (NCA) 8.65 +.02
HYG (High Yield) 91.86 -.35 PFF(Preferred) 39.60 -.27
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.15 +.20

Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC) 28.50 -2.25  (USCI) 65.21 -3.22
Gold 1481.40 -34.10  Silver 36.22 -3.16 Copper 3.98 -.14
Platinum 1778.20 -48.10 Nickel (JJN)35.80 -2.41
Oil 99.80 -9.84 RBOB 3.10 -.21  Nat Gas 4.25 -.22
Grains (JJG) 51.35 -1.65 Livestock (COW) 29.29 -.32
Cotton (BAL)80.04 -3.11 Agg complex(JJA) 60.76 -1.77 

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0582 -.0159 Euro 1.4505 -.0267 Pound 1.6273 -.0125
Yen 1.2284 +.0027 Can$ 1.0268 -.0107 USD Index 74.37 +1.16  

World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.96 -.58  PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.88 UC 
IBND(Intl Corp Bond) 34.96 -.62

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up... Sever down day
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24 Sever down day
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend down
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend neutral
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend neutral
Palladium 5-5 current trend down
Nickel  4-28 current trend neutral
Grain complex 4-28 current trend down 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :2-24. current trend up sever down day
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .5-4. current trend neutral
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down  strong up day
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up sever down day
Euro 1-28 current trend up  sever down day

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up sever down day

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up under review
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
Mikey: 4-28 12763 Caution advisory..no long positions
IBD : 5-5 market in correction 12584


US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 18.20 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .87
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .96 10 day average .79
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  1.02 10 day ave ..75
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -24.88 weekly -11.54
Bulls 54.3  Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 8 Weekly 9 (1 low, 10 max)17, -1
DJIA MACD +150.83 Falling/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +405.01 Falling Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 97(12/7 429)  New Lows 34
NASDAQ New Highs 53 (12-7 352) New Lows 50
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -726  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -578
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-29 32806)+29549 
Daily NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +4526
5 day AD NYSE -2332 NASDAQ -3529 NYSE.. 5 day oversold
 % above 200 day ave 70 %
Days to option expiration: 11

Comments:
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.
Mikey shorts JJC @ 56.58
4-28 weakness in commodity rank and file spreading Corn -3.24%, Agg complex -3.05% , Lead -1.66%
Indicator off the charts overbought indicates almost no fear.
Mikey issues market overbought advisory...caution @12763
4-29 Bonds and stocks moving up together that is like the wolves taking care of the lambs
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4 Commodity index downgraded to neutral, Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to neutral, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening
Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week. Margins increased Bounce possible here.
5-5 Oil -9.00 and Gold -34 joined the commoditiy sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC,s all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bons had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar +1.14 .
Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver freefalls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trendline drawn from its Sept lows.
IBD Market in correction

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12575  Falling/Price above
20 day 12525 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12294  Rising/Price above
90 day 12141 Rising/Price above
200 day 12141 Rising/Price above
20 week 12067 Rising/Price above
50 week 11197 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10778 Rising/Price above
200 week 10841  Flat/Price above

Remember 2005 and 2006 when the Condo market was hot and the banks were loaning money to any warm body that wanted to buy. This is the same thing that is happening today but this time its commodities.
Every warm body knows that the dollar is going to go down forever and you have to invest in something like Gold and Silver and Oil or Stocks that will go up as the dollar drops. The fact is that the Real Estate market was juiced knowingly by the politicians and the monetary authorities and so too is the commodity and stock markets. The only difference between them is that even though Real Estate was heavily leveraged, the commodities markets are much more so,  and because of this they will come down much more quickly.

The public believed that real estate was sacred incapable of crashing. They same belief is held by investors about Oil and Gold and to some degree Stocks. They believe that Uncle Fed will save them and hold these assets up at the expense of the Dollar. They believe that the Dollar is a dead duck. They believe that even if these assets fall that they will be rescued by the Fed. This is the same belief that prevailed about Real Estate in 2005.  It is 2011 and a report was issued today that Real Estate prices have fallen below the 2008 lows.

When an asset class goes parabolic like real estate, Gold or Silver or Oil it takes years to construct a new bull market it them.  Just as with Real Estate they are about to witness a blood bath that occurs in commodities when the margin calls come in and a weak economy stomps on demand. The perfect storm has been brewed by the same guys that killed Real Estate.  By the way Stocks are nothing more than commodities now with similar leverage

The Dollar was strong today on US economic weakness. They said that the world was weak because of  US economic weakness. This is all double talk. just watch the trends. The commodities have had enough of a sell off to put them in a downtrend now. The Dollar has been held back and has not confirmed this move until today. The point is that you could see the weakness spreading for the last month but there were no reasons given. The weakness in the Dollar give some credibility to the sell off now.

You will not one living soul that believe that the dollar is going to go up from here. The strongest asset class is now the US bond market.  Who has been buying bonds. That's right good old Uncle Sugar. What currency is Uncle buying them in , that's right dollars. Is a flight to safety coming in the dollar. I would think so.

The stock market is still in an uptrend but IBD went to market in correction today. They change their trends like I change my socks. I need a little more sell off before I call a trend change in US stocks. The BRIC have all qualified to be in a downtrend, except China and I think that happens soon.

Tomorrow is the jobs numbers and they have telegraphed weakness. The put numbers and put premium are running quite high so the crowd is turning short term bearish. They are not long term bearish and I believe when we go into a downtrend this thing just keeps going to about 11000. I think that the net result of all this leverage and careless investing will end the same way as the Real Estate market did.

Mikey