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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Bricks under pressure

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12723.58 -83.93 SPX 1347.32 -9.30 NASDAQ 2828.23 -13.39
Russell 2000 832.90 -10.87 DJT 5392.71 -85.33 DJU 430.94 -1.24
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0661%  2 yr .5893% 10 yr 3.21-.03 30 yr 4.32 -.03
IEF(US10 yr) 94.69 +.24 TLT (US LT) 94.63 +.46
MUB (LT Natl Muni)102.00 +.33 Calif Muni (NCA) 8.63 -.01
HYG (High Yield) 92.22 -.03 PFF(Preferred) 39.87 +.04
BND (Total Bond Mkt)80.85 uc
Commodities
Commodities Index (DBC) 30.75 -.50  (Commodity index) USCI 67.47 -2.67
Gold 1515.30 -24.70 Silver 39.38 -3.19 Copper 4.12 -.11 
Platinum 1826.30 -34.20 Nickel (JJN)38.21 -1.59  
Oil 109.24 -1.91 RBOB 3.31 -.01 Nat Gas 4.57 -.10
Grains (JJG) 53.00 -.34  Livestock (COW) 29.71 +.13
Cotton (BAL)83.15 -3.52 Agg complex(JJA) 62.53 -.91 
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0747 -.0120 Euro 1.4766 -.0008 Pound 1.6388 +.0023
Yen 1.2257 +.0065 Can$ 1.0371 -.0066 USD Index 73.21 -.09
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.54 +.02 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.88 +.03
IBND(Intl Corp Bond) 35.58 -.10 

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-4 Neutral
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Palladium 5-2 Neutral
Nickel  4-28 current trend neutral
Grain complex 4-28 Neutral 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .5-4. current trend neutral
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend neutral
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up
Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up
Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up under review down big today
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
Mikey: 4-28 12763 Caution advisory..no long positions
IBD : 5-3 market under pressure



US markets short term  technical trading indicators:


VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 17.08 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .92
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.00 10 day average .77
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .91 10 day ave .73
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -19.89 weekly -11.76
Bulls 54.3  Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 8 Weekly 9 (1 low, 10 max)17, -1
DJIA MACD +158.68 Falling/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +404.76 Falling Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 92(12/7 429)  New Lows 31
NASDAQ New Highs 53 (12-7 352) New Lows 54
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -1119  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1174
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-29 32806)+30275  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +5104
5 day AD NYSE -1119 NASDAQ -1174
NYSE % above 200 day ave 72 %
Days to option expiration: 12



Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
Mikey buys ZSL @ 24.05
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.
Mikey shorts JJC @ 56.58
4-28 weakness in commodity rank and file spreading Corn -3.24%, Agg complex -3.05% , Lead -1.66%
Indicator off the charts overbought indicates almost no fear.
Mikey issues market overbought advisory...caution @12763
4-29 Bonds and stocks moving up together that is like the wolves taking care of the lambs
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4 Commodity index downgraded to neutral, Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to neutral, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening
Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week. Margins increased Bounce possible here.

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12781 Rising/Price above
20 day 12493 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12268  Rising/Price above
90 day 12115 Rising/Price above
200 day 11427 Rising/Price above
20 week 12067 Rising/Price above
50 week 11197 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10778 Rising/Price above
200 week 10841  Flat/Price above

The bricks in the wall of world economic strength are changing trend and in a hurry. Today I rated  China and India neutral from uptrend and Russia and Brazil to downtrend. The fact that the commodities index has turned neutral indicates that something is changing in the area of world growth.

Brazil


China

Commodities Index
India

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