Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, April 25, 2011

Yen closing in on uptrend, Copper, Cotton, Livestock enter downtrends

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12484.53 -26.11 SPX 1330.06 -1.32 NASDAQ 2824.62 +4.46
Russell 2000 843.76 -1.88 DJT 5311.73 +21.01 DJU 419.27 +.90  
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1167 %  2 yr .6357% 10 yr 3.36 -.04 30 yr 4.45 -.02
IEF(US10 yr) 93.79 +.33 TLT (US LT) 92.93 +.33  MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.08 +.08
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.49 +.05 HYG (High Yield) 92.31 -.10 PFF(Preferred) 39.76 +.09
Commodities
Gold 1509.10 +5.30 Silver 47.14 +1.09 Copper 4.30 -.09  Platinum 1828.10 +7.40   
Oil 112.28 -.01 RBOB 3.32 +.01 Nat Gas 4.39 -.02   DBC 31.62 -.09
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0749+.0038 Euro 1.4527 +0026 Pound 1.6390 -.0035 Yen 1.2072 +.0002
Can$ 1.0416 -.0014 USD Index 74.18 UC
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.48 +.04 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.50 -.01 IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.03 +.15

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-11 current trend neutral

Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Livestock 4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up
Jap Yen 4-25  current trend neutral (NEW)
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up
Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators


VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.77
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 97
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .72 10 day average .84
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .64   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -.6.24  weekly -2.70
Bulls 44.8   Bears 26.4  Bull/Bear ratio 1.70
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)19, -1
DJIA MACD +77.07 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +370.15 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 204 (12/7 429)  New Lows 14
NASDAQ New Highs 122 (12-7 352) New Lows 19
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -261 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -216
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+28945 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +6378
5 day AD NYSE +1813 NASDAQ +119
NYSE % above 200 day ave  74 %
Days to option expiration: 19

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12381 Rising/Price above
20 day 12349 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12204 Rising/Price above
90 day 12020 Rising/Price above
200 day 11340 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27


Charts of interest:

YEN

Livestock

Cotton


Copper


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