Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Very overbought market closes at new highs..Ben speaks tomorrow

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12552.69 +72.81 SPX 1343.99 +8.74 NASDAQ 2842.45 +16.57
Russell 2000 851.47 +7.24 DJT 5379.30 +78.49  DJU 421.29 +2.80
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1221 %  2 yr .6526% 10 yr 3.32 -.04 30 yr 4.40 -.05
IEF(US10 yr) 94.19 +.40 TLT (US LT) 93.84 +.90 MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.30 +.22
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.74 +.25 HYG (High Yield) 92.52 +.31 PFF(Preferred) 39.82 +.08
Commodities
Gold 1503.50 -3.60  Silver 45.09 -2.09 Copper 4.31 -.01 Platinum 1816.00 -12.10
Oil 112.21 -.12 RBOB 3.35 +.03 Nat Gas 4.39 uc DBC 31.61 -..01
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0812 +.0057  Euro 1.4641 + .0114 Pound 1.6372 -.0018 Yen 1.2112 +.0027
Can$ 1.0508 +.0089  USD Index 74.02 -.16  
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.79 +.31 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.51 +.01  IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.09 +.06 

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-11 current trend neutral

Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Livestock 4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up
Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up (NEW) Downgraded by S&P 4-26
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up
Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators


VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.23
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 99
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .79 10 day average .83
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .66   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -3.52   weekly -1.73
Bulls 44.8   Bears 26.4  Bull/Bear ratio 1.70
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +90.21 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +370.15 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 319 (12/7 429)  New Lows 6
NASDAQ New Highs 159 (12-7 352) New Lows 25
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1351 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +707
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+30296 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +7085
5 day AD NYSE +5032 NASDAQ +2384
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76 %
Days to option expiration: 18

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen


DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12460 Rising/Price above
20 day 12369 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12210 Rising/Price above
90 day 12032 Rising/Price above
200 day 11352 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27

The Mikey OB/OS is a very high 99 and the 5 day AD is a very healthy 5032. The averages are making new highs before Bens speech on the state of Fed policy tomorrow. The oil markets are stuck at the highs and Gold is static just above 1500. No matter what old Ben says the market will only believe that the Fed is going to support the whole thing.

If you need evidence that these guys have a sense of humor then look at the consumer confidence numbers. They came in better than expected. I wonder what was the reason for all of this confidence was it oil prices or the new low in housing prices reported this week or maybe the public has invested their cash in the silver market.  The silver market traded huge volume over the past two weeks.

Mikey
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