Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, April 4, 2011

No follow through from Friday

DJIA 12400.03 +23.31 SPX 1332.87 +.46 NASDAQ 2789.19 -.41
Russell 2000 849.36 +2.59 DJT 5378.96 +8.49  DJU 415.16 -.64 VIX 17.50  
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1221%  2 yr .7738% 10 yr 3.44 uc 30 yr 4.49 uc
IEF(US10 yr) 93.17 +.21 TLT (US LT)92.29 +.10 MUB (LT Natl Muni)99.60 -.08  
BND (Total Bond Mkt)79.99 +.10 HYG (High Yield)91.84 +.56
Gold 1433 +.4.10 Silver 38.49 +.76 Copper 4.25 -.01 Platinum 1783.40 +8.50
Oil 108.47 +.51  RBOB 3.16 +.01 Nat Gas 4.28 -.08
Aussie 1.0320 -.0019  .0011 EURO 1.4163 -.0003 Pound 1.6025 +.0010
USD Index 76.16 +.08 DBC 31.00 +.28  
Days to option expiration: 9

Current Trends

US Bonds: Current trend up
Muni Markets: : Current trend Neutral
Stocks:  Current trend up
Gold: ..  Current trend up
Silver: ...Current trend up
Oil : ..... Current trend up
Commodities: .. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar:  .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .. Current trend down
Emerging Markets: ... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: .. Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : IBD: 3-29 Market in confirmed uptrend 12279


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 90
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .88 10 day average .82
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .57    10 day ave .67
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.15   
Williams %R 12 day 3.06 weekly -2.43
Bulls 51.6   Bears 23.1 Bull/Bear ratio 2.23 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, 0
DJIA MACD +82.94 Rising/Positive Cross  3-24
NYSE New Highs 274 (12/7 429)  New Lows 16
NASDAQ New Highs 259(12-7 352) New Lows 32
NYSE Advance-Decline +258 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +157
Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-4 28940)+28940 (New High) NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +8573
NYSE % above 200 day ave  77%

Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1330 SPX; 12258 DJIA

Comments:
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day which is neutral to oversold.
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals

Moving Averages

5 day 12344 Rising/Price above
20 day 12100 Rising/Price below
50 day 12118 Flat/Price below
90 day 11854 Rising/Price above
200 day 11178 Rising/Price above
20 week 11822 Rising/Price above
50 week 11061 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10627 Rising/Price above
200 week 10860 Flat/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score  60
DJIA 81 Canada 70 Latin Amer 58 Mexico 73 Brazil 66
Europe 42 UK 61 Germany 38 Spain 51 Russia 59
China 66 Japan 33 Korea 58
Singapore 76 Taiwan 59 India 78  Australia 75
Emer Mkts 75 Total World market Index 62
Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 69 Nat Gas 56, Gasoline 84
Gold 51 Copper 47 Silver 65 Platinum 55
Grains 53 DBC 82

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 57 Aussie 54 Euro 54 Brit Pd 46 Yuan 60 Yen 50  

US Industry Sectors (relative strength) Ave Score 60...(Updated 4-1)
(20 up, 15 Neutral, 0 Downtrend)Score 20
Homebuilders (XHB) 57, Real Estate (IYR) 59, Finance (XLF) 53  Regional Banks (IAT) 53 Insurance
(IAK) 59, Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 60, Retail (XRT) 65 Consumer Disc (XLY) 57  Telecom (IYZ) 66 Consumer Staple (XLP) 63 Health (XLV)65, Pharma (IHE) 69, Biotech (PBE ) 67, Transports (IYT) 66 Aerospace (ITA) 62, Shipping (SEA) 53, Airlines ($XAL) 47, ,Utilities (XLU) 58, Metals and Mining( XME) 64, Copper (COPX) 59, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 70, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 66 Oil Service (OIH) 60, Coal (KOL) 68, Energy (XLE) 64, Gold Miners (GDX) 56 Steel (SLX) 58 Basic Mat (XLB) 63 Timber (Wood) 70 AgriBusiness (MOO) 63, Tech (XLK) 53 Semiconductors (SMH) 46, Software (SWH) 63 Networking (PXQ) 51 Internet (FDN) 64


Bonds (Relative Strength) (Updated 4-1)
(2 up, 0 down, 8 neutral) Score 2
MUB (Natl Muni) 47 NCA(Ca Muni) 62 BND (Total Bond Index) 42 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 52, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 62 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 51, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 45, PFF (US preferred) 58 HYG (High Yield) 46


The dollar is treading water at its lows as the boys decide if they like oil at 108.

Mikey
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