Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, April 18, 2011

Keep your eyes on the trends not the story

DJIA 12201.89 -140.24 SPX 1305.14 -14.54 NASDAQ 2735.38 29.27
Russell 2000 821.51 -13.47 DJT 5211.81 -72.93 DJU 412.50 -3.57 VIX 16.96
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1170 %  2 yr .6569% 10 yr 3.37 -.04 30 yr 4.46 uc
IEF(US10 yr) 93.68 +.27 TLT (US LT) 92.85 +.08 MUB (LT Natl Muni)100.52 +.14
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.36 +.09  HYG (High Yield) 91.65 -.19
Gold 1492.90 +6.90 Silver 42.95 +.38 Copper 4.26 uc Platinum 1782.80 -14.00
Oil 107.12 -2.54 RBOB 3.25 -.04 Nat Gas 4.14 -.06
Aussie 1.0533 -.0049 EURO 1.4181 -.0188 Pound 1.6159 -.0032
USD Index 75.73 +.70 DBC 30.96 -.21
Days to option expiration: 20
All Markets Current Trends

US Bonds: 4-15 Current trend up
Muni Markets: : 4-15 Current trend down
Stocks: 3-29  Current trend up
Gold: .2-17.  Current trend up
Silver: .2-08  Current trend up
Oil :2-23. Current trend up
Commodities: .9-21-10. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar:  .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. Current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24  current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-12 Uptrend under pressure


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 92
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .90 10 day average .81
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .77   10 day ave .67
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -73.37 weekly -27.98
Bulls 55.4   Bears 16.3  Bull/Bear ratio 3.39 Extremely Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 3 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max)10, -4
DJIA MACD +56.11 Falling/Negative Cross 4-12
NYSE New Highs 26 (12/7 429)  New Lows 25
NASDAQ New Highs 43 (12-7 352) New Lows 50
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -1868 Daily NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1558
Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+25264  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +4701
5 day AD NYSE -1821 NASDAQ -1558

NYSE % above 200 day ave  71 %

3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade

Moving Averages

5 day 12308 Falling /Price below
20 day 12288 Rising/Price below
50 day 12187 Rising/Price above
90 day 11975 Rising/Price above
200 day 11292 Rising/Price above
20 week 11940 Rising/Price above
50 week 11110 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10703 Rising/Price above
200 week 10848 Flat/Price above

The S&P downgraded US debt and the dollar and bonds rallied. This is the problem you face if you try to follow the story. The main thing to focus on is the price. In the weeks to come do not be fooled by line of BS that comes out of the market watch and follow the trends. I suspect that I will get a sell signal tomorrow. I am closing my QLD position and am looking to establish shorts on that sell signal.

Mikey
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