Fed implies a safety net...... assets rally and dollar falls

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12690 +95.59 SPX 1355.66 +8.42 NASDAQ 2869.88 +22.34
Russell 2000 858.31 +5.27 DJT 5445.91 +47.00 DJU 425.76 +2.90
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1119 %  2 yr .6526% 10 yr 3.36 +.04 30 yr 4.45 +.05
IEF(US10 yr) 93.92 -.27 TLT (US LT) 92.98 -98 MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.44 +.14
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.70 -.04 HYG (High Yield) 92.58 +.06  PFF(Preferred) 39.35 +.08
Commodities
Gold 1528.10 +24.60   Silver 48.72 +3.63 Copper 4.29 -.02 Platinum 1826.40 +10.40
Oil 113.40 +1.19 RBOB 3.45 +.10 Nat Gas 4.41 +.02  DBC 31.80 +.19
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0888 +.0075 Euro 1.4844 +.0142 Pound 1.6526 +.0154 Yen 1.2008 -.0101
Can$ 1.0458 +.0013 USD Index 72.93 -1.09
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.21 +.42  PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.59 +.08 IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.43 +.34
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Livestock 4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up (NEW) Downgraded by S&P 4-26
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.35
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 99
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .70 10 day average .81
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .73   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -3.42 weekly -1.73
Bulls 54.3   Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +99.75 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +370.15 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 284 (12/7 429)  New Lows 19
NASDAQ New Highs 146 (12-7 352) New Lows 23
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +891 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +662
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-27 31187)+31187  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +7747
5 day AD NYSE +4897 NASDAQ +3020
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76 %
Days to option expiration: 17
Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12526 Rising/Price above
20 day 12834 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12217 Rising/Price above
90 day 12045 Rising/Price above
200 day 11363 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27


Bernanke spoke today and gave the market what it wanted to hear. The problem is that what they have done so far has not worked. They can support the stocks and sell dollars all they want but higher commodity prices and lower housing prices with high chronic unemployment is not a good thing. The truth is that the market moves higher as the economy moves lower. This is happening worldwide. The disconnect is getting wider

Today was a statement day. The investment community feels safe and secure in the belief that the Fed is going to save everything and maybe they can. If there is a sell off they will be buying that pullback with out fear. This is not a good thing.

I see a number of commodities selling off. They include Lumber, Cotton, Meat and Sugar. This to me is evidence that demand is falling worldwide. Prices are hurting demand. The most visible commodities oil. gold and silver are exceptionally strong but so were all commodities just 1 month ago. Something different is going on now and it is important to monitor the trend regardless of the implied safety net the Fed is giving.  I believe that the Fed is in its exit strategy now it is sneaking out the back door as the economy weakens. They say they are buying bonds and it we have a weak economy that would be a great time for them to sell those bonds for a profit. Until then we stay follow the trends.

Mikey