Russell 2000 846.77 +3.22 DJT 5370.47 +70.58 DJU 415.30 +2.74 VIX 17.40
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1526% 2 yr .7976% 10 yr 3.44 uc 30 yr 4.49 -.03
IEF(US10 yr) 92.94 -.07 TLT (US LT)92.14 +.01 MUB (LT Natl Muni)99.56 +.11
BND (Total Bond Mkt)79.93 -.09 HYG (High Yield)91.31 -.65
Gold 1428.90 +5.10 Silver 37.73 +.22 Copper 4.26 -.01 Platinum 1774.90 +3.50
Oil 107.94 +3.67 RBOB 3.15 +.09 Nat Gas 4.36 +.01
Aussie 1.0392 .0011 EURO 1.4183 +.0067 Pound 1.6015 +.0062
USD Index 76.08 -.19 DBC 30.76 +.25
Days to option expiration: 10
Current Trends
US Bonds: Current trend up
Muni Markets: : Current trend Neutral
Stocks: Current trend up
Gold: .. Current trend up
Silver: ...Current trend up
Oil : ..... Current trend up
Commodities: .. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
Muni Markets: : Current trend Neutral
Stocks: Current trend up
Gold: .. Current trend up
Silver: ...Current trend up
Oil : ..... Current trend up
Commodities: .. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar: .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .. Current trend downUS Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
Emerging Markets: ... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: .. Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds
Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : IBD: 3-29 Market in confirmed uptrend 12279
Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17 UUP 23.52
Short Term Trading Indicators
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 90
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .86 10 day average .78
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .57 10 day ave .71
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.15
Williams %R 12 day 5.86 weekly -5.46
Bulls 51.6 Bears 23.1 Bull/Bear ratio 2.23 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, 0
DJIA MACD +71.54 Rising/Positive Cross 3-24
NYSE New Highs 389 (12/7 429) New Lows 13
NASDAQ New Highs 246(12-7 352) New Lows 25
NYSE Advance-Decline +1156 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +303
Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-1 28682)+28682 (New High) NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +8416
NYSE % above 200 day ave 77%
Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1330 SPX; 12258 DJIA
Comments:
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day which is neutral to oversold.
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
Moving Averages
5 day -12303 Rising/Price above
20 day 12084 Rising/Price below
50 day 12107 Flat/Price below
90 day 11839 Rising/Price above
200 day 11168 Rising/Price above
20 week 11822 Rising/Price above
50 week 11061 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10627 Rising/Price above
200 week 10860 Flat/Price above
Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral
World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 60
DJIA 75 Canada 70 Latin Amer 58 Mexico 74 Brazil 65
Europe 38 UK 56 Germany 31 Spain 55 Russia 59
China 66 Japan 30 Korea 63
Singapore 72 Taiwan 54 India 78 Australia 74
Emer Mkts 75 Total World market Index 57
Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 67 Nat Gas 62, Gasoline 77
Gold 53 Copper 42 Silver 65 Platinum 54
Grains 52 DBC 82
Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 43 Aussie 58 Euro 55 Brit Pd 48 Yuan 60 Yen 51
US Industry Sectors (relative strength) Ave Score 60...(Updated 4-1)
(20 up, 15 Neutral, 0 Downtrend)Score 20
Homebuilders (XHB) 57, Real Estate (IYR) 59, Finance (XLF) 53 Regional Banks (IAT) 53 Insurance
(IAK) 59, Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 60, Retail (XRT) 65 Consumer Disc (XLY) 57 Telecom (IYZ) 66 Consumer Staple (XLP) 63 Health (XLV)65, Pharma (IHE) 69, Biotech (PBE ) 67, Transports (IYT) 66 Aerospace (ITA) 62, Shipping (SEA) 53, Airlines ($XAL) 47, ,Utilities (XLU) 58, Metals and Mining( XME) 64, Copper (COPX) 59, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 70, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 66 Oil Service (OIH) 60, Coal (KOL) 68, Energy (XLE) 64, Gold Miners (GDX) 56 Steel (SLX) 58 Basic Mat (XLB) 63 Timber (Wood) 70 AgriBusiness (MOO) 63, Tech (XLK) 53 Semiconductors (SMH) 46, Software (SWH) 63 Networking (PXQ) 51 Internet (FDN) 64
Bonds (Relative Strength)
(2 up, 0 down, 8 neutral) Score 2
MUB (Natl Muni) 47 NCA(Ca Muni) 62 BND (Total Bond Index) 42 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 52, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 62 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 51, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 45, PFF (US preferred) 58 HYG (High Yield) 46
The charts all look the same except the dollar which is the inverse of all of them. The quarter ended with assets as kings and the dollar being tossed by the wayside. The industry group charts all look the same, the currencies all look the same, the commodities all look the same, the country charts all look the same. the funny thing is that fundamentally they are all disasters. Europe, a debt disaster has the following charts.
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| The European 350 index |
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| Euro |
 |
| DJ Industrial |
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| Gold |
 |
| Oil |
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| Dollar |
It is clear that the dollar is being used to pump up asset values. This is a trade that has been working for some time now and the trades at this point are just literally printing money with it. There is no one on the other side of this trade because they have been trampled to death. Notice that the dollar made a low in Novemeber and returned to its low in March. Take note of the movemet in Oil and Stocks and Europe as the dollar sank.
They have used the dollar to prop up evrything but chicken feathers. The trade off is a spiking oil price. Everytime the market starts to sell off they catch it with a lower dollar. The higher oil price is the price they pay and at some point that price will be great enough to bring down the economy.
You can see by the green in the industry groups that the market is getting overbought. The Put/call ratio however, is still showing that the players have not fully embraced this rally yet. On the other hand, the Mikey is OB at 90 which is a high reading. I would suspect that we need to move a little higher in the short term to seal the deal. I think at this point the traders would buy any pull back now.
The current trend is up but the market is starting to shake violently now and the traders will get tired of being whipsawed and just take a side. I think that side will most certainly be the long side. The quarterly statements to the pensions and 401K plans will look real good after this latest rally and that should bring in more money for the insiders as April 15 approaches.
Mikey
They have used the dollar to prop up evrything but chicken feathers. The trade off is a spiking oil price. Everytime the market starts to sell off they catch it with a lower dollar. The higher oil price is the price they pay and at some point that price will be great enough to bring down the economy.
You can see by the green in the industry groups that the market is getting overbought. The Put/call ratio however, is still showing that the players have not fully embraced this rally yet. On the other hand, the Mikey is OB at 90 which is a high reading. I would suspect that we need to move a little higher in the short term to seal the deal. I think at this point the traders would buy any pull back now.
The current trend is up but the market is starting to shake violently now and the traders will get tired of being whipsawed and just take a side. I think that side will most certainly be the long side. The quarterly statements to the pensions and 401K plans will look real good after this latest rally and that should bring in more money for the insiders as April 15 approaches.
Mikey
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