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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Fed taking foot off of the Gas???

DJIA 12393.90 -6.13 SPX 1332.63 -.24 NASDAQ 2791 +2.00  
Russell 2000 853.31 +3.95 DJT 5342.92 -36.04 DJU 413.88 -1.28 VIX 17.50  
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1475%  2 yr .8177% 10 yr 3.48 +.03 30 yr 4.51 +.02
IEF(US10 yr) 92.69 -..48 TLT (US LT)92.04 -.25 MUB (LT Natl Muni)99.60 uc
BND (Total Bond Mkt)79.81 -.18 HYG (High Yield)91.74 -.10
Gold 1452.50 +19.50 Silver 39.18 +.69 Copper 4.31 +.06 Platinum 1796.80 +13.40
Oil 108.34 -.13 RBOB 3.19 +.03 Nat Gas 4.23 -.05
Aussie 1.0335 -.0034 .0011 EURO 1.4167 +.0004  Pound 1.6176 +.0151
USD Index 76.11 -.05 DBC 31.03 +.03  
Days to option expiration: 8


Current Trends

US Bonds: Current trend up
Muni Markets: : Current trend Neutral
Stocks:  Current trend up
Gold: ..  Current trend up
Silver: ...Current trend up
Oil : ..... Current trend up
Commodities: .. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar:  .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .. Current trend up
Emerging Markets: ... current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: .. Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : IBD: 3-29 Market in confirmed uptrend 12279


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 90
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .38 10 day average .75
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .58    10 day ave .65
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.15   
Williams %R 12 day 7.65 weekly -2.43
Bulls 51.6   Bears 23.1 Bull/Bear ratio 2.23 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)18,-1
DJIA MACD +96.41 Rising/Positive Cross  3-24
NYSE New Highs 273 (12/7 429)  New Lows 13
NASDAQ New Highs 199(12-7 352) New Lows 13
NYSE Advance-Decline +317 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +58
Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-5 29257)+29257 (New High) NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +8631
NYSE % above 200 day ave  77%

Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1330 SPX; 12258 DJIA

Comments:
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day which is neutral to oversold.
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals

Moving Averages

5 day 12368 Rising/Price above
20 day 12109 Rising/Price below
50 day 12126 Flat/Price below
90 day 11867 Rising/Price above
200 day 11188 Rising/Price above
20 week 11822 Rising/Price above
50 week 11061 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10627 Rising/Price above
200 week 10860 Flat/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

Holding at the highs and momentum us running lower. Still in an uptrend.
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