Fed freak show about to end.. GDP rises 1.8%

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12763.31 +72.95 SPX 1360.48 +4.82 NASDAQ 2872.53 +2.65
Russell 2000 861.55 +3.24 DJT 5510.06 +4.15 DJU 429.42 +2.66
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1043 %  2 yr .6211% 10 yr 3.31 30 yr 4.41 -.04
IEF(US10 yr) 94.28 +.36  TLT (US LT) 93.55 +0.66
MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.68 +.25 Calif Muni (NCA) 8.48 uc
HYG (High Yield) 92.63 +.05 PFF(Preferred) 39.96 +.06
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.85 +.15
Commodities
Commodities Index (DBC) 31.51 -.23
Gold 1531.20 +3.10 Silver 47.52 -1.20 Copper 4.24 -.05
Platinum 1839.80 +13.50 Lead (LD)62.64 -1.06  Nickel (JJN)39.39 -.01
Oil 112.86 -.54 RBOB 3.42 -.03 Nat Gas 4.57 +.16
Grains (JJG) 53.28 -2.17 Livestock (COW) 30.61 -.18
Cotton (BAL) 83.82 -.17 Agg complex(JJA) 63.11 -1.99
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0947 +.0042 Euro 1.4766 +.0025 Pound 1.6535 +.0009
Yen 1.2109 +.0073 Can$ 1.0457 -.0011 USD Index 73.30 +.37
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.51 +.30 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.61 +.01
IBND(Intl Corp Bond)34.41 -.02

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Lead 4-28 current trend down
Nickel  4-28 current trend neutral
Grain complex 4-28 Neutral -3.91% corn-4.50%
Sugar 2-23 current trend down -1.24% today
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 4-28 Neutral -3.05%
Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up (watch list neg 1.28% today
Japan 3-11 current trend down (watch list positive  +2.56% up today)
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up  Downgrade S&P 4-26
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
Mikey: 4-28 12763 Caution advisory..no long positions
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend


US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 14.62
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 1.01
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .79 10 day average .81
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .66   10 day ave .73
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -2.23 weekly -1.15
Bulls 54.3   Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +125.46  Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +392.69 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 358 (12/7 429)  New Lows 14
NASDAQ New Highs 168 (12-7 352) New Lows 25
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +694  NASDAQ Advance-Decline +308
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-28 31881)+31881   NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +8055
5 day AD NYSE +3613 NASDAQ +1953
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76 %
Days to option expiration: 16

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.
4-28 weakness in commodity rank and file spreading Corn -3.24%, Agg complex -3.05% , Lead -1.66%
Indicator off the charts overbought indicats almost no fear.
Mikey issues market overbought advisory...caution

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12607  Rising/Price above
20 day 12410 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12230 Rising/Price above
90 day 12060  Rising/Price above
200 day 11367 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27
4-27 Short JJC @ 56.58

GDP party line:

GDP grew at a 1.8% annual rate in Q1, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That’s far below Q4’s 3.1% pace but just above views for 1.7%. A day earlier, Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke predicted high gasoline prices and other factors weighing on the economy would prove “transitory.” The central bank sees better growth for the full year, but it should remain modest while unemployment stays high.

“There’s still a lot of negatives,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s. “It continues to be a half-speed recovery.” government slashed spending at a 5.2% annual rate, the second straight decline. Federal government spending sank at a 7.9% pace on a big drop in defense procurement. State and local governments, many facing big deficits, cut spending at a 3.3% clip.

Housing was a drag, as residential investment fell at a 4.1% rate after rising at a 3.3% pace in Q4. Pending home sales rose 5.1% in March, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Many of those signed contracts will close in April and May, but construction should stay depressed amid a glut of foreclosures.

Meanwhile, consumers boosted spending at a 2.7% pace in Q1, down from Q4’s 4% but still OK. High gas prices and severe winter storms deterred many shoppers. Spending on durable goods rose at a 10.6% rate, led by autos. manufacturing has helped power the economy along with business spending on equipment and software, which rose at an 11.6% annual pace in Q1.

Q1 inventories rose at an annualized $43.8 billion, up from Q4’s $16.2 billion, a sign companies expect demand to keep rising. But new jobless claims rose by 25,000 last week to 429,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, unexpectedly holding above 400,000 for a third straight week.
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The economy is losing steam and what these guys need is lower interest rates for the consumer who is giving it up in the first Qtr. The also need lower commodity prices and I think that this story is about to be told. That means that the government market is the place to be and the trend is up. Guess who has been buying bonds for the last 4 months. The Fed and its cronies have been selling stock into this riskiness dollar weak trade. I think the risk is very high now. Commodity weakness is spreading and the strenght in Gold silver and oil is masking the weakness. I think oil is about ready to join the parade down and I want a piece of the fall.

Mike