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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, April 21, 2011

US and world markets party on falling dollar

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12505.99 +52.45 SPX 1337.38 +7.02 NASDAQ 2820.16 +17.65
Russell 2000 845.64 +6.19 DJT 5290.72 +31.96 DJU 418.37 +.67
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1116 %  2 yr .6603% 10 yr 3.40 -.01 30 yr 4.47 uc
IEF(US10 yr) 93.52 +.13  TLT (US LT) 92.53 -.15 MUB (LT Natl Muni)100.90 -.10
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.39 uc HYG (High Yield) 92.35 +.16  PFF(Preferred) 39.67 +.09
Commodities
Gold 1503.80 +4.90  Silver 46.05 +1.60 Copper 4.40 +.06 Platinum 1820.90 +18.10  
Oil 112.29 +.84 RBOB 3.30 +.03 Nat Gas 4.41 +.10  DBC 31.71 +.23
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0778 +.65 Euro 1.4494 +.0037 Pound 1.6411 +.0113 Yen 1.2070 -.0008 Can$ 1.0491
USD Index 74.18 -.38
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.44 +.39 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.51 -.01 IBND(Intl Corp Bond)34.88 +.16

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-11 current trend neutral

Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton 4-18 current trend neutral
Livestock 4-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-19 current trend up
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up
Jap Yen 3-31  current trend down
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up
Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 14.69
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 1.01
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .84 10 day average .86
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .70   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -.19 weekly -.08
Bulls 44.8   Bears 26.4  Bull/Bear ratio 1.70
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, 0
DJIA MACD +70.75 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +371.62 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 225 (12/7 429)  New Lows 10
NASDAQ New Highs 141 (12-7 352) New Lows 20
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +938 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +492
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+29206  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +6594
5 day AD NYSE +3187 NASDAQ +1131
NYSE % above 200 day ave  75 %
Days to option expiration: 20

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 

Moving Averages

5 day 12353 Rising/Price above
20 day 12336 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12199 Rising/Price above
90 day 12009 Rising/Price above
200 day 11329 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27


The markets partied hearty on the dollar weakness this week. The party is at the stage where the party goers are about to overdose. That means that something bad is going to happen. You can only misbehave for so long and this has been going on for way too long now.The DJI closed at a new high going into Easter. All trends are up and there is no market tomorrow. UNG entered an uptrend this week and I added it to my buy list based on technical action. I also added to my ZSL position on Friday at 15.40. ZSL is double short silver and silver is a rocket ship to the moon right now. Obviously, I am going against a strong trend. This is not smart but the breakout at 30 in Feb will be filled. There is another unfilled break out at 18 in August 2010. These breakouts will be filled at some point.

Natural Gas
ZSL (Double short Silver)
Silver
Silver 3 year 

Mikey
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