Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Desperate times calls for desperate action...

DJIA 12453.54 +186.79 SPX 1330.36 +17.74 NASDAQ 2802.51 +57.54
Russell 2000 839.45 +16.44 DJT 5258.76 +20.01 DJU 417.70 +5.22 VIX 15.07
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1116 %  2 yr .6725% 10 yr 3.41 +.03 30 yr 4.47 +.02
IEF(US10 yr) 93.39 -.37 TLT (US LT) 92.69 -.59 MUB (LT Natl Muni)100.80 +.05
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.40 -.09 HYG (High Yield) 92.20 +.36
Gold 1498.90 +3.80 Silver 44.46 +.54 Copper 4.33 +.10 Platinum 1802.80 +31.30
Oil 111.45 +3.17 RBOB 3.28 +.04 Nat Gas 4.31 +.05
Aussie 1.0711 +.0170 EURO 1.4468 +.0193 Pound 1.6298 +.0090
USD Index 74.56 -.68 DBC 31.48 +.49
Days to option expiration: 18

All Markets Current Trends

US Bonds: 4-15 Current trend up
Muni Markets: : 4-15 Current trend down
Stocks: 3-29  Current trend up
Gold: .2-17.  Current trend up
Silver: .2-08  Current trend up
Oil :2-23. Current trend up
Commodities: .9-21-10. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar:  .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. Current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24  current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 1.00
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .77 10 day average .86
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .77   10 day ave .86
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -5.66 weekly -20.56
Bulls 44.8   Bears 26.4  Bull/Bear ratio 1.70
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max)17, +1
DJIA MACD +40.22 Falling/Negative Cross 4-12
Weekly MACD +352.68 Falling Negative Cross 4-18
NYSE New Highs 195 (12/7 429)  New Lows 15
NASDAQ New Highs 133 (12-7 352) New Lows 28
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1978 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +1375
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+28268  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +6102
5 day AD NYSE +2491 NASDAQ +973
NYSE % above 200 day ave  74 %

3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
Moving Averages

5 day 12309 Rising/Price above
20 day 12301 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12194Rising/Price above
90 day 11987 Rising/Price above
200 day 11317 Rising/Price above
20 week 11940 Rising/Price above
50 week 11110 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10703 Rising/Price above
200 week 10848 Flat/Price above


To say this market move is a farce is an understatement. The authorities have to proven that everything is OK so they jack up stocks and I am sure it is being done with extreme leverage. The leverage of a lower dollar. The lower dollar is going to kill the economy or they are going to back off. This whole thing feels like a major major bottom in the dollar and a major top in the commodities. It just has that feel to it. The trend are up now on all markets but I have a divergence in my MACD and the new highs are well off their previous highs. I don't believe this rally but will not short it until I get a sell signal.  The big move in the NASDAQ was the big name stocks. The small caps are lagging. IBD went to market resumes uptrend today.

I will be adding to my ZSL trade tomorrow and will post the price when I do. Purchase UNG today for 11.27 as I have a buy signal on it resistance is at around 12.80

Mikey
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