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Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Bouncing off the 50 again

DJIA 12266.75 +65.16 SPX 1312.62 +7.48 NASDAQ 2744.97 +9.59
Russell 2000 823.01 +1.50 DJT 5238.75 +26.94 DJU 412.48 -.02 VIX 15.83 
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1170 %  2 yr .6689% 10 yr 3.38 +.01 30 yr 4.45 -.01 
IEF(US10 yr) 93.76 +.12 TLT (US LT) 93.08 +.20 MUB (LT Natl Muni)100.75 +.23
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.52 +.12   HYG (High Yield) 91.75 +.25
Gold 1495.10 +3.80 Silver 43.92 +.97 Copper 4.23 -.03 Platinum 1771.30 -11.50
Oil 108.28 +1.16 RBOB 3.24 -.01 Nat Gas 4.26 +.12
Aussie 1.0541 +.0003 EURO 1.4278 +0.102 Pound 1.6215 +.0056
USD Index 75.24 -.49 DBC 31.00 +.02
Days to option expiration: 19

All Markets Current Trends

US Bonds: 4-15 Current trend up
Muni Markets: : 4-15 Current trend down
Stocks: 3-29  Current trend up
Gold: .2-17.  Current trend up
Silver: .2-08  Current trend up
Oil :2-23. Current trend up
Commodities: .9-21-10. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar:  .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. Current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24  current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-12 Uptrend under pressure


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 97
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .79 10 day average .85
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .86   10 day ave .70
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -51.58  weekly -27.84
Bulls 55.4   Bears 16.3  Bull/Bear ratio 3.39 Extremely Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 5 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max)12, -2
DJIA MACD +50.11  Falling/Negative Cross 4-12
Weekly MACD 347.47 Falling Negative Cross
NYSE New Highs 65 (12/7 429)  New Lows 25
NASDAQ New Highs 65 (12-7 352) New Lows 31
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1026 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +26Daily
Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+26290  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +4727
5 day AD NYSE +674 NASDAQ +26
NYSE % above 200 day ave  71 %

3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade

Moving Averages

5 day 12273 Falling /Price below
20 day 12301 Rising/Price below
50 day 12189 Rising/Price above
90 day 11985 Rising/Price above
200 day 11305 Rising/Price above
20 week 11940 Rising/Price above
50 week 11110 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10703 Rising/Price above
200 week 10848 Flat/Price above


We are bouncing off the 50 day for the DJI. The put numbers are slightly elevated and so is the put premium although today the put call fell to .79. I put some shorts on today as noted in the right column of my blog. I do think that this one goes through. The DJI has not given a sell yet but the S and P and the NASDAQ have. The AD line and the new highs and lows are running weak for the small caps, much weaker than the NYSE.
The Fed stepped on the dollar today to pump things up again but I think it is just a rear guard action. Gold and Silver is drawing alot of attention and appears to have not top but that is what happens at a top when everyone piles in.

Mikey
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