Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Waiting for the Jobs numbers

DJIA 12319.73 -30.88 SPX 1325.83 -2.43 NASDAQ 2781.07 +4.28
Russell 2000 843.55 +3.18 DJT 5299.89 +23.14 DJU 413.06 -1.19 VIX 17.74
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1806%  2 yr .8373% 10 yr 3.47 +.03 30 yr 4.50 -.02
IEF(US10 yr) 93.01 -.24 TLT (US LT)92.13 -.19 MUB (LT Natl Muni)99.45 -.15
BND (Total Bond Mkt)80.02 -.09 HYG (High Yield)91.96 -.05
Gold 1439.90 +16.10 Silver 37.89 +.38 Copper 4.30 +.03 Platinum 1779.30 +7.90
Oil 106.72 +2.45 RBOB 3.11 Nat Gas 4.38 +.03
Aussie 1.0381 +.0022 EURO 1.4116 +.0047 Pound 1.5952 -.0030
USD Index 76.27  DBC 30.51 +.47 Days to option expiration: 11
Current Trends

US Bonds: Current trend up
Muni Markets: : Current trend Neutral
Stocks:  Current trend up
Gold: ..  Current trend up
Silver: ...Current trend up
Oil : ..... Current trend up
Commodities: .. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar:  .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .. Current trend down
Emerging Markets: ... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: .. Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : IBD: 3-29 Market in confirmed uptrend


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 89
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .86 10 day average .79
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .57    10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.15   
Williams %R 12 day 3.96 weekly -4.86
Bulls 51.6   Bears 23.1 Bull/Bear ratio 2.23 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, 0
DJIA MACD +48.16 Rising/Positive Cross  3-24
NYSE New Highs 242 (12/7 429)  New Lows 13
NASDAQ New Highs 191(12-7 352) New Lows 31
NYSE Advance-Decline +505 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +377
Mikey A/D line NYSE (3-30 27021)+27526 (New High) NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +8113
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76%

Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1330 SPX; 12258 DJIA

Comments:
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day which is neutral to oversold.
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals

Moving Averages

5 day 12243 Rising/Price above
20 day 12071 Rising/Price below
50 day 12086 Flat/Price below
90 day 11813 Rising/Price above
200 day 11149 Rising/Price above
20 week 11724 Rising/Price above
50 week 11010 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10536 Rising/Price above
200 week 10873 Flat/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score  47
DJIA 70 Canada 61 Latin Amer 49 Mexico 74 Brazil 65
Europe 37 UK 41 Germany 28 Spain 60 Russia 56
China 56 Japan 29 Korea 53
Singapore 62 Taiwan 47 India 76  Australia 68
Emer Mkts 75 Total World market Index 52

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 67 Nat Gas 71, Gasoline 75
Gold 57 Copper 44 Silver 68 Platinum 57
Grains 38 DBC 79

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 41 Aussie 54 Euro 54 Brit Pd 55 Yuan 55 Yen 55  

US Industry Sectors (relative strength) Ave Score 52...(Not updated today)
(16 up, 30 Neutral, 0 Downtrend)Score 16

Homebuilders (XHB) 55, Real Estate (IYR) 54, Finance (XLF) 51  Regional Banks (IAT) 49 Insurance
(IAK) 53, Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 51, Retail (XRT) 66 Consumer Disc (XLY) 57  Telecom (IYZ) 64 Consumer Staple (XLP) 62 Health (XLV)62, Pharma (IHE) 66, Biotech (PBE ) 63, Transports (IYT) 60 Aerospace (ITA) 57, Shipping (SEA) 53, Airlines ($XAL) 51, ,Utilities (XLU) 56, Metals and Mining( XME) 62, Copper (COPX) 55, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 68, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 66 Oil Service (OIH) 61, Coal (KOL) 64, Energy (XLE) 65, Gold Miners (GDX) 56 Steel (SLX) 59 Basic Mat (XLB) 61 Timber (Wood) 65 AgriBusiness (MOO) 57, Tech (XLK) 55 Semiconductors (SMH) 53, Software (SWH) 58 Networking (PXQ) 54 Internet (FDN) 62


Bonds (Relative Strength)
(2 up, 0 down, 8 neutral) Score 2
MUB (Natl Muni) 43 NCA(Ca Muni) 69 BND (Total Bond Index) 40 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 48, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 50 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 55, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 61, PFF (US preferred) 63 HYG (High Yield) 57
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