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Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, March 28, 2011

Stalemate

DJIA 12197.88 -22.71 SPX 1310.19 -3.61 NASDAQ 2730.68 -12.38  
Russell 2000 821.77 -2.08 DJT 5229.08 +21.51 DJU 406.07 -2.07  VIX 19.44
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1725%  2 yr .8.18% 10 yr 3.43 uc 30 yr 4.49 uc
IEF(US10 yr) 93.20 +.03 TLT (US LT)92.30 +.13 MUB (LT Natl Muni)99.86 +.04
BND (Total Bond Mkt)80.11 -.07 HYG (High Yield)91.82+.03
Gold 1419.90 -6.30 Silver 37.09 +.04 Copper 4.34 -.07  Platinum 1747.80 +2.20
Oil 103.98 -1.42 RBOB 3.03 -.01 Nat Gas 4.37 -.03
Aussie 1.0287 +.02 EURO 1.4036 +.19 Pound 1.5894 -.21
USD Index 76.48 uc DBC 29.91 -.41
Days to option expiration: 14

Current Trends

US Bonds: Current trend up
Muni Markets: : Current trend Neutral
Stocks:  Current trend Neutral

Gold: ..  Current trend up
Silver: ...Current trend up
Oil : ..... Current trend up
Commodities: .. Current trend up
Real Estate: ... Current trend down
US Dollar:  .Current Trend down
US Economy: Current trend up ..Slowing
China: .. Current trend down
Emerging Markets: ... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: .. Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down 3-14 11855
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-28 Current trend Neutral: 12197
IBD : IBD: 3-7 MARKET IN CORRECTION  12090


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 82
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .61 10 day average .82
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .66    10 day ave .81
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.15   
Williams %R 12 day -9.93 weekly -22.69
Bulls 50.6   Bears 22.4 Bull/Bear ratio 2.26 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max)17, +1
DJIA MACD +14.95 Rising/Positive Cross  3-24
NYSE New Highs 123 (12/7 429)  New Lows 14
NASDAQ New Highs 104(12-7 352) New Lows 21
NYSE Advance-Decline -551 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -420
Mikey A/D line NYSE (3/3 25358)+24490 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +5797
NYSE % above 200 day ave  74%

Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1330 SPX; 12258 DJIA

Comments:
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day which is neutral to oversold.
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral

Moving Averages

5 day 12139 Rising/Price above
20 day 12046 Rising/Price below 20 day below 50
50 day 12066 Rising/Price below
90 day 11786 Rising/Price above
200 day 11129 Rising/Price above
20 week 11724 Rising/Price above
50 week 11010 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10536 Rising/Price above
200 week 10873 Flat/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score  47
DJIA 62 Canada 57 Latin Amer 34 Mexico 62 Brazil 54
Europe 37 UK 36 Germany 24 Spain 56 Russia 49
China 54 Japan 27 Korea 50
Singapore 46 Taiwan 451 India 46  Australia 61
Emer Mkts 66 Total World market Index 42

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 44 Nat Gas 72, Gasoline 59
Gold 50 Copper 34 Silver 59 Platinum 44
Grains 28 DBC 67

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 45 Aussie 53 Euro 54 Brit Pd 50 Yuan 43 Yen 61  

US Industry Sectors (relative strength) Ave Score 52
(5 up, 30 Neutral, 0 Downtrend)Score 3

Homebuilders (XHB) 54, Real Estate (IYR) 47, Finance (XLF) 46  Regional Banks (IAT) 44 Insurance
(IAK) 49, Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 46, Retail (XRT) 57 Consumer Disc (XLY) 49  Telecom (IYZ) 49 Consumer Staple (XLP) 56 Health (XLV)55, Pharma (IHE) 53, Biotech (PBE ) 51, Transports (IYT) 58 Aerospace (ITA) 54, Shipping (SEA) 46, Airlines ($XAL) 46, ,Utilities (XLU) 43, Metals and Mining( XME) 57, Copper (COPX) 51, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 63, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 60 Oil Service (OIH) 58, Coal (KOL) 58, Energy (XLE) 60, Gold Miners (GDX) 51 Steel (SLX) 52 Basic Mat (XLB) 54 Timber (Wood) 58 AgriBusiness (MOO) 52, Tech (XLK) 50 Semiconductors (SMH) 51, Software (SWH) 52 Networking (PXQ) 47 Internet (FDN) 52


Bonds (Relative Strength)
(0 up, 0 down, 8 neutral) Score 0
MUB (Natl Muni) 49 NCA(Ca Muni) 53 BND (Total Bond Index) 47 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 57, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 49 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 52, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 47, PFF (US preferred) 59 HYG (High Yield) 54

The market has rallied back to its breakdown and its new resistance level at 12220. The put call had a low .61 today but the ten day is still a moderate .82. I am showing green on my DJI which is either a signal to break up or an overbought signal. The dollar has returned it its break down of last week and we now await their decision. Are they going to punch this thing again with a lower dollar and send the markets and oil up again or are they going to back off and give the consumers a break. Who knows but we will keep our eyes on the technicals of the market and make the call.  As of this moment I favor a dollar reversal back up and a sell off in the commodities but that is an emotional decision at a level that they are not capable of.

Mikey
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