Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, March 17, 2011

The put kill

DJIA 1174.55 +161.29 SPX 1273.72 +16.84 NASDAQ 2636.05 +19.23
Russell 2000 785.52 +3.62 DJT 5019.24 +69.24 DJU 398.43 +1.21 VIX 26.37
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1424   2 yr .6007% 10 yr 3.29 +.10 30 yr 4.45 +.09
IEF(US10 yr) 94.56 -.25 TLT (US LT) 93.30 -.67 MUB (LT Natl Muni)100.76 -.13
BND (Total Bond Mkt)80.74 -.10 HYG (High Yield)90.75 +.97
Gold 1404.20 +8.10  Silver 34.26 -.21 Copper 4.35 +.16 Platinum 1706.90 +6.40
Oil 101.42 +3.44 RBOB 2.95 +.12 Nat Gas  4.15 +.10
Aussie .9815 -.0022 EURO 1.3964 +.0132 Pound 1.6040 +.0114
USD Index 76.44 -.54  DBC 29.55 +.89
Days to option expiration: 2
Notes: Strength in US treasuries, weakness in high yield bonds and assets

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend up
Muni Markets: Bottoming : Current trend Neutral
Stocks: At 2 year highs......  Current trend down
Gold: Primary top forming .....  Current trend up
Silver: Blow out top....Current trend up
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up ..Slowing
China: Accident waitng to happen.. Current trend down
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds
Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down 3-14 11855
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-15 Current trend down: 11855
IBD : IBD: 3-7 MARKET IN CORRECTION  12090


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 54
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .53 10 day average .87
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .89     10 day ave .76
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.15   
Williams %R 12 day -92.05 weekly -89.13
Bulls 52.2   Bears 22.3 Bull/Bear ratio 2.34 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 1 Weekly 1 (1 low, 10 max) 2, -0
DJIA MACD -96.22 (below 0 line) Falling/Negative Cross  2-22
NYSE New Highs 43 (12/7 429)  New Lows 48 (more new lows than highs)
NASDAQ New Highs 43 (12-7 352) New Lows 105 (new lows / new highs )
NYSE Advance-Decline +1392 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +568
Mikey A/D line NYSE (3/3 25358)+20065 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +2952
NYSE % above 200 day ave  67%

Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1300 SPX; 12000 DJIA

Comments:
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Put kill rally


Moving Averages

5 day 11737 Falling/Price below
20 day 12046 Falling/Price below
50 day 12007  Falling/Price below
90 day 11722  Rising/Price above
200 day 11049  Rising/Price above
20 week 11687 Rising/Price above
50 week 10991 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10498 Rising/Price above
200 week 10882 Flat/Price above

Options expire tomarrow DOA
Mikey
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