Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, March 24, 2011

The Fed should declare victory and let the air out of this windbag

DJIA 12170.56 +84.54 SPX 1309.66 +12.12 NASDAQ 2736.42 +38.12
Russell 2000 817.10 +5.86 DJT5165.88 +69.30  DJU 407.84 +1.80 VIX 18.00

US Gov rates: 6 mo .1573%  2 yr .6905% 10 yr 3.39 +.06  30 yr 4.47 +.04
IEF(US10 yr) 93.42 -.48 TLT (US LT)92.40 -.70 MUB (LT Natl Muni)99.86 -.14
BND (Total Bond Mkt)80.29 -.13 HYG (High Yield)91.78 +.08

Gold 1434.90 -3.10 Silver 37.37 +.17 Copper 4.42 uc Platinum 1760 uc
Oil 105.60 -.15 RBOB 3.05 +.03 Nat Gas 4.24 -.10
Aussie 102.48 +.0083 EURO 1.4113 +.0067 Pound 1.6076 -.0132
USD Index 75.89 -.17 DBC 30.24 +.12
Days to option expiration: 16

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend up
Muni Markets: Bottoming : Current trend Neutral
Stocks: .....  Current trend down
Gold: Primary top forming .....  Current trend up
Silver: Blow out top....Current trend up
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Propped up with debt.....Current trend up ..Slowing
China: Accident waiting to happen.. Current trend down
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down 3-14 11855
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-15 Current trend down: 11855
IBD : IBD: 3-7 MARKET IN CORRECTION  12090


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 88
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .81 10 day average .86
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .76    10 day ave .84
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.15   
Williams %R 12 day --12.42 weekly --26.26
Bulls 50.6   Bears 22.4 Bull/Bear ratio 2.26 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max)16, +2
DJIA MACD -14.46 (below 0 line) Rising/Positive Cross  3-24
NYSE New Highs 135 (12/7 429)  New Lows 12
NASDAQ New Highs 108(12-7 352) New Lows 20
NYSE Advance-Decline +934 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +748
Mikey A/D line NYSE (3/3 25358)+24087 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +5797
NYSE % above 200 day ave  73%

Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1330 SPX; 12258 DJIA

Comments:
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration

Moving Averages

5 day 12034 Rising/Price above
20 day 12043 Flat/Price below
50 day 12047  Rising/Price below
90 day 11761 Rising/Price above
200 day 11109  Rising/Price above
20 week 11724 Rising/Price above
50 week 11010 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10536 Rising/Price above
200 week 10873 Flat/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score  46
DJIA 56 Canada 59 Latin Amer 39 Mexico 56 Brazil 54
Europe 34 UK 28 Germany 25 Spain 57 Russia 47
China 60 Japan 24 Korea 49
Singapore 40 Taiwan 44 India 56  Australia 49
Emer Mkts 66 Total World market Index 37

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 59 Nat Gas 67, Gasoline 57
Gold 63 Copper 38 Silver 73 Platinum 46
Grains 30 DBC 66

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 39 Aussie 49 Euro 59 , Brit Pd 54 Yuan 40 Yen 64  

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 54
(3 up, 32 Neutral, 0 Downtrend)Score 3
Homebuilders (XHB) 54, Real Estate (IYR) 49, Finance (XLF) 47  Regional Banks (IAT) 42 Insurance
(IAK) 46 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 48, Retail (XRT) 57 Consumer Disc (XLY) 53  Telecom (IYZ) 54 Consumer Staple (XLP) 56 Health (XLV)54, Pharma (IHE) 54, Biotech (PBE ) 52, Transports (IYT) 55 Aerospace (ITA) 55, Shipping (SEA) 48, Airlines ($XAL) 45, ,Utilities (XLU) 45, Metals and Mining( XME) 60, Copper (COPX) 55, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 65, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 61 Oil Service (OIH) 55, Coal (KOL) 63, Energy (XLE) 58, Gold Miners (GDX) 58 Steel (SLX) 53 Basic Mat (XLB) 55 Timber (Wood) 57 AgriBusiness (MOO) 53, Tech (XLK) 47 Semiconductors (SMH) 46, Software (SWH) 53 Networking (PXQ) 49 Internet (FDN) 56


Bonds (Relative Strength)
(1 up, 0 down, 8 neutral) Score 1

MUB (Natl Muni) 49 NCA(Ca Muni) 49 BND (Total Bond Index) 52 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 65, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 55 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 56, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 50, PFF (US preferred) 57 HYG (High Yield) 54

Let's be honest. The economy is bad, housing is bad consumers are struggling and money is only available to those who have it. The stock market is not a reflection of the economy but a fiction created by the Fed to give the illusion that everything is OK. They are manufacturing higher prices in the market at the expense of the dollar. That in turn is sending oil and food prices that the real consumer has to deal with into orbit. Meanwhile prices sink and the jobs market sinks. The jobs numbers like so many of the government economic statistics are pure fiction.

 The lies continue and the FED and investment banks continue to get away with whatever they can to keep this farce going.  It looks to me that whatever is funding this mess has gone about as far as they can push it. The Fed should put an end to this windbag and let the air out so at least the public can get some relief from high oil prices and rising interest rates.

Mikey
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