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Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Bernanke: the Roger Goodell of the Financial markets

DJIA 12018.63 -17.90 SPX 1293.77 -4.61 NASDAQ 2683.87 -8.22
Russell 2000 808.66 -4.36 DJT 5099.93 -66.90 DJU 406.35 +.12 VIX 20.21
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1573%  2 yr .6412% 10 yr 3.31 -.02  30 yr 4.43 -.02
IEF(US10 yr) 94.02 +.05 TLT (US LT)93.58 +.67 MUB (LT Natl Muni)99.85 -.38
BND (Total Bond Mkt)80.45 -.03  HYG (High Yield)91.77 +.03
Gold 1427.60 +1.30 Silver 36.27 +.27 Copper 4.31 +.02 Platinum 1739.40 -8.50
Oil 104.97 +2.64 RBOB 3.02 +.02 Nat Gas 4.26 +.11
Aussie 1.0131 +.0057 EURO 1.4137 -.0027 Pound 1.6275 +.0063
USD Index 75.67 +.01   DBC 30.10 +.24
Days to option expiration: 19
Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend up
Muni Markets: Bottoming : Current trend Neutral
Stocks: At 2 year highs......  Current trend down
Gold: Primary top forming .....  Current trend up
Silver: Blow out top....Current trend up
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up ..Slowing
China: Accident waitng to happen.. Current trend down
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.
Notes: trend change in stocks and Bonds
Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down 3-14 11855
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-15 Current trend down: 11855
IBD : IBD: 3-7 MARKET IN CORRECTION  12090


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 78
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .79 10 day average .87
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .81     10 day ave .83
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.15   
Williams %R 12 day -32.96  weekly -42.58
Bulls 52.2   Bears 22.3 Bull/Bear ratio 2.34 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 7 Weekly 6 (1 low, 10 max)13, +1
DJIA MACD -43.46 (below 0 line) Rising/Negative Cross  2-22
NYSE New Highs 101(12/7 429)  New Lows 11
NASDAQ New Highs 70(12-7 352) New Lows 31
NYSE Advance-Decline -441 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -488
Mikey A/D line NYSE (3/3 25358)+22843 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +4881
NYSE % above 200 day ave  72%

Support: 1182 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1300 SPX; 12000 DJIA

Comments:
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross
3-1 Reversal day big distribution day 3rd in month
IBD Uptrend under pressure 12058
3-2 Weak bounce
3-8 IBD Market in correction
3-11 DJI Hits 50 day NASDAQ breaks 50 day at Jan lows
3-12 bounces off 50 day
3-14 Hard break of 50 day. Mikey trend change ..down
3-16 US long bonds uptrend
3-17 Snap back rally
3-18 options expire as mkt rallies

Moving Averages

5 day 11860 Rising/Price above
20 day 12038 Falling/Price below
50 day 12028  Rising/Price below
90 day 11742 Rising/Price above
200 day 11087  Rising/Price above
20 week 11724 Rising/Price above
50 week 11010 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10536 Rising/Price above
200 week 10873 Flat/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score  42
DJIA 51 Canada 56 Latin Amer 51 Mexico 46 Brazil 55
Europe 51 UK 49 Germany 48 Spain 56 Russia 54
China 56 Japan 47 Korea 54
Singapore 49 Taiwan 42 India 48  Australia 48
Emer Mkts 52 Total World market Index 49

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 62 Nat Gas 62, Gasoline 61
Gold 59 Copper 47 Silver 66, Platinum 42
Grains 47 DBC 60

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 33 Aussie 54 Euro 67 , Brit Pd 62 Yuan 44 Yen 56  

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 49
(1 up, 34 Neutral, 1 Downtrend)Score 0
Homebuilders (XHB) 50, Real Estate (IYR) 50, Finance (XLF) 45 Regional Banks (IAT) 43 Insurance (IAK) 48 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 45, Retail (XRT) 48 Consumer Disc (XLY) 43  Telecom (IYZ) 47Consumer Staple (XLP)49 Health (XLV)47, Pharma (IHE) 48, Biotech (PBE ) 46, Transports (IYT) 1 Aerospace (ITA) 52, Shipping (SEA) 48, Airlines ($XAL) 43, ,Utilities (XLU) 42, Metals and Mining( XME) 54, Copper (COPX) 46, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 64, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 54 Oil Service (OIH) 54, Coal (KOL) 58, Energy (XLE) 57, Gold Miners (GDX) 52 Steel (SLX) 48 Basic Mat (XLB) 49 Timber (Wood) 52 AgriBusiness (MOO) 47, Tech (XLK) 41, Semiconductors (SMH) 42, Software (SWH) 45 Networking (PXQ) 39 Internet (FDN) 45

Bonds (Relative Strength)
(4 up,  down, 5 neutral) Score 4

MUB (Natl Muni) 49 NCA(Ca Muni) 49 BND (Total Bond Index) 56 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 66, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 51 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 58, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 57, PFF (US preferred) 56, HYG (High Yield) 54

The analogy is that in the NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell represents all the owners and all of the players equally. He has the interests of both at heart. He wants a fair deal for both sides. If that is true why are the players so unhappy with him?

Now old Ben says that he has the interests of the owners (the corporations) and the players (you and me) at heart. He would never lie to one side to take advantage of the other. In fact, the congress (the owners attorneys), our elected representatives, have given him everything he wanted and then some. Why then does no one but the investment bankers and analysts believe that there is a recovery going on as Ben is telling us?

In his most recent take on the economy he says that 100 oil won't hurt the economy. This is the guy who said that sub prime loans would not hurt the economy or real estate. That should have been enough to get him plain flat run out of office. This most recent debacle of high oil prices and food prices is going to bring the whole world economy down. Every recession I can remember started with high oil prices. Ben is supposed to be a student of economic history. Maybe he over looked this or maybe he is just an outright liar and the owners like high oil prices. I know the players do not.

The banks and the corporations (owners) are increasing dividends and the recovery is on track, according to commissioner Ben. He says that the banks do not even need a stress test because they are in such good shape.  Meanwhile, you and me (the players) can't get a loan and are watching the value of or homes decline and the cost of food and gasoline skyrocket.  We  are also watching as congress balloons our debt. Who got the money? The players or the owners? How about it commissioner? Now that's a recovery that an owner can be proud of.

Mikey
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