Mikey... The Market Shadow: February 2011

Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, February 28, 2011

DJIA 1226.34 +95.89 SPX 1327.22 +7.31 NASDAQ 2782.27 +1.22
Russell 2000 823.45 +1.50 DJT 5084.90 24.53 DJU 415.61 +4.73 VIX 18.35 -.87
US Gov rates: 6 mo .152% 2 yr .7156% 10 yr 3.41 -.05 30 yr 4.49 -.05
IEF (US 10 YR) 93.33 -.08 TLT (US 20+) 92.21 -.07 MUB (LT Natl Muni) -.04
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.36 +.12 HYG (High Yield) 92.50 +.46
Gold 1409.90 +.60 Silver 33.80 +.90 Copper 4.49 +.06 Platinum 1809.20 +5.80
Oil 96.97 -.91 RBOB 2.89 +.16 Nat Gas 4.04 +.04
Aussie 101.81 -.0026 EURO 1.3747 +.0049 Pound 1.6157 +.0139
USD Index 76.92 -.38 DBC 29.69 +.02
Days to option expiration: 15

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Bottoming : Current trend Neutral
Stocks: At 2 year highs...... Current trend up
Gold: Primary top forming ..... Current trend up
Silver: Blow out top....Current trend up
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up ..Slowing

China: Accident waitng to happen.. Current trend down
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets, US Stocks.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 1-21 (DJI 11871) The caution light is on for this uptrend :
IBD : Uptrend resumes 2-1

Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17 UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .87
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).84   10 day average .78
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .67     10 day ave .60
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.15
Williams %R 12 day 38.45 weekly 15.91
Bulls 53.3  Bears 18.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.82 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 4 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) 12, -5
DJIA MACD 98.92 Falling/Negative Cross 2-22
NYSE New Highs 266 (12/7 429)  New Lows 14
NASDAQ New Highs 144 (12-7 352) New Lows 21
NYSE Advance-Decline +1074 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -8
Mikey A/D line (2/18 24526). NYSE +24216 NASDAQ ( 2-18, 10095 ) +8917
NYSE % above 200 day ave  78%

Support: 1190 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1313 SPX; 13136 DJIA
Downside reversal 1270 SPX, DJIA 11800, NASDAQ 2679

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
1-5 Gold sell signal
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmed by AD Line.
1-12 Dollar sell signal
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-24 Oil sell signal
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..over hall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross

Moving Averages

5 day 12150 Rising/Price above
20 day 12175 Rising/Price above
50 day 11893 Rising/Price above
90 day 11601 Rising/Price above
200 day 10941  Rising/Price above
20 week 11583 Rising/Price above
50 week 10937 Rising/Price above
90 week 10421 Rising/Price above
200 week 10893 Rising/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 51
DJIA 60, Canada 59 Latin Amer 57 Mexico 41 Brazil 61
Europe 65 UK 58 Germany 68 Spain 74  Russia 50
China 40 Japan 52 Korea 13, Singapore 34, Taiwan 38 India 44 Australia 56
Emer Mkts 53 Total World market Index 53

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 50, Nat Gas 23, Gasoline 87
Gold 70 Copper 41 Silver 77, Platinum 31
Grains 33 DBC 70

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 39  Aussie 66 Euro 66 , Brit Pd 61, Yuan 63, Yen 50

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score  55
6 up, 28 Neutral, 1 Downtrend  Score -+5

Homebuilders (XHB) 42, Real Estate (IYR) 69, Finance (XLF) 55, Regional Banks (IAT) 48 Insurance (IAK) 59 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 55, Retail (XRT) 56, Consumer Disc (XLY) 59, Telecom (IYZ) 50, Consumer Staple (XLP) 58, Health (XLV) 59, Pharma (IHE) 52, Biotech (PBE ) 45, Transports (IYT) 48 Aerospace (ITA) 50, Shipping (SEA) 45, Airlines ($XAL) 36, ,Utilities (XLU) 58 , Metals and Mining( XME) 56, Copper (COPX) 50, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 74, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 69 Oil Service (OIH) 66,  Coal (KOL) 56, Energy (XLE) 70, Gold Miners (GDX) 61 Steel (SLX) 49, Basic Mat (XLB) 52, Timber (Wood) 51 AgriBusiness (MOO) 52, Tech (XLK) 53, Semiconductors (SMH) 59, Software (SWH) 57 Networking (PXQ) 56, Internet (FDN) 47

Bonds (Relative Strength)

(6 up, 0 down, 6 neutral) Score +6
MUB (Natl Muni) 60 NCA(Ca Muni) 48

BND (Total Bond Index) 62 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 66, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 48 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 60, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 56, PFF (US preferred) 62, HYG (High Yield) 63

Friday, February 25, 2011

DJIA 12130 +61.95 SPX 1319.88 +13.78 NASDAQ 2781.05 +43.15
Russell 2000 821.95 +17.77 DJT 5060.37 +51.92 DJU 410.88 +2.58 VIX 19.22
US Gov rates: 6 mo .152% 2 yr .7156% 10 yr 3.41 -.05 30 yr 4.49 -.05
Gold 1409.30 -6.30 Silver 32.89 -.27 Copper 4.43 +.10 Platinum 1803.40 +16.60
Oil 97.88 +.60 RBOB 2.73 +.02 Nat Gas 4.00 +.13
Aussie 1.0205 +.0079 EURO 1.3689 -.0058 Pound 1.6018 -.0023
USD Index 77.30 +.21 DBC 29.68 +.65
Days to option expiration: 16
Long Term Opinions:

US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up ..Slowing

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .83
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS)..83   10 day average .78
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .74     10 day ave .58
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.15
Williams %R 12 day -63.8 weekly 24.30
Bulls 53.3  Bears 18.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.82 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 4 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) 12, -5
DJIA MACD 101.31 Falling/Negative Cross 2-22
NYSE New Highs 141 (12/7 429)  New Lows 11
NASDAQ New Highs 88 (12-7 352) New Lows 17
NYSE Advance-Decline +1673 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +1584
Mikey A/D line (2/18 24526). NYSE +23142 NASDAQ ( 2-18, 10095 ) +8925
NYSE % above 200 day ave  77%

Support: 1190 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1313 SPX; 13136 DJIA
Downside reversal 1270 SPX, DJIA 11800, NASDAQ 2679

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
1-5 Gold sell signal
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmed by AD Line.
1-12 Dollar sell signal
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-24 Oil sell signal
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..over hall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross

Moving Averages

5 day 12129 Falling/Price at
20 day 12154 Rising/ Price below
50 day 11877 Rising/Price above
90 day 11587 Rising/Price above
200 day 10934 Rising/Price above
20 week 11583 Rising/Price above
50 week 10937 Rising/Price above
90 week 10421 Rising/Price above
200 week 10893 Rising/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 49

DJIA 60, Canada 59 Latin Amer 51 Mexico 35 Brazil 54
Europe 59 UK 55 Germany 65 Spain 68  Russia 50
China 35 Japan 56 Korea 17, Singapore 37, Taiwan 36 India 44 Australia 58
Emer Mkts 47 Total World market Index 51

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 49, Nat Gas 18, Gasoline 88
Gold 71 Copper 42 Silver 76, Platinum 24
Grains 33 DBC 65

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 46  Aussie 66 Euro 57 , Brit Pd 52, Yuan 58, Yen 50

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score  47
6 up, 28 Neutral, 1 Downtrend  Score -+5
Homebuilders (XHB) 48, Real Estate (IYR) 61, Finance (XLF) 62, Regional Banks (IAT) 48 Insurance (IAK) 51 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 54, Retail (XRT) 56, Consumer Disc (XLY) 56, Telecom (IYZ) 46, Consumer Staple (XLP) 54, Health (XLV) 53, Pharma (IHE) 44, Biotech (PBE ) 46, Transports (IYT) 46 Aerospace (ITA) 52, Shipping (SEA) 45, Airlines ($XAL) 36, ,Utilities (XLU) 49 , Metals and Mining( XME) 53, Copper (COPX) 44, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 73, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 68 Oil Service (OIH) 64,  Coal (KOL) 52, Energy (XLE) 69, Gold Miners (GDX) 57 Steel (SLX) 46, Basic Mat (XLB) 49, Timber (Wood) 48 AgriBusiness (MOO) 48, Tech (XLK) 51, Semiconductors (SMH) 59, Software (SWH) 56 Networking (PXQ) 58, Internet (FDN) 50

Bonds (Relative Strength)

(3 up, 0 down, 6 neutral) Score +3
MUB (Natl Muni) 61 NCA(Ca Muni) 48

BND (Total Bond Index) 60 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 61, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 40 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 59, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 57, PFF (US preferred) 57, HYG (High Yield) 57

Thursday, February 24, 2011

DJI holds at 12000 above 50 day remains in an uptrend

DJIA 12068.50 -37.28 SPX 1301.49 -5.91 NASDAQ 2725.97 +2.98
Russell 2000 800.27 +.62 DJT 5008.45 +22.45 DJU  408.32 -1.05 VIX 22.12
US Gov rates: 6 mo .147%  2 yr .7393% 10 yr 3.46 -.02 30 yr 4.54 -.04
Gold 1415.80 +1.80  Silver 33.16 -.14 Copper 4.33 +.05 Platinum 1786.80 +10.10
Oil 97.28 -.82 RBOB 2.71 -.01 Nat Gas 3.87 -.03
Aussie 1.0126 +.0084 EURO 1.3747 +.0056 Pound 1.6041 -.0070
USD Index 77.09 -.35 DBC 29.03 -.26
Days to option expiration: 17

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Bottoming : Current trend down
Stocks: At 2 year highs...... Current trend up
Gold: Primary top forming ..... Current trend up
Silver: Blow out top....Current trend up
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .71
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS)..92   10 day average .77
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .75     10 day ave .57
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.15
Williams %R 12 day -79.10 weekly 30.40
Bulls 53.3  Bears 18.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.82 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 2 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max) 9, -5
DJIA MACD 113.45 Falling/Negative Cross 2-22
NYSE New Highs 81 (12/7 429)  New Lows 17
NASDAQ New Highs 48 (12-7 352) New Lows 37
NYSE Advance-Decline +204 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +542
Mikey A/D line (2/18 24526). NYSE +21469 NASDAQ ( 2-18, 10095 ) +7341
NYSE % above 200 day ave  75%

Support: 1190 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1313 SPX; 13136 DJIA
Downside reversal 1270 SPX, DJIA 11800, NASDAQ 2679

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
1-5 Gold sell signal
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmed by AD Line.
1-12 Dollar sell signal
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-24 Oil sell signal
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..over hall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross

Moving Averages

5 day 12263 Falling/Price below
20 day 12219 Rising/ Price below
50 day 11864 Rising/Price above
90 day 11576 Rising/Price above
200 day 10928 Rising/Price above
20 week 11583 Rising/Price above
50 week 10937 Rising/Price above
90 week 10421 Rising/Price above
200 week 10893 Rising/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 46
DJIA 60, Canada 59 Latin Amer 44 Mexico 24 Brazil 48
Europe 54 UK 57 Germany 62 Spain 57  Russia 45
China 31 Japan 58 Korea 13, Singapore 33, Taiwan 31 India 47 Australia 58
Emer Mkts 42 Total World market Index 46

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 45, Nat Gas 11, Gasoline 67
Gold 72 Copper 38 Silver 76, Platinum 19
Grains 25 DBC 59

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 47  Aussie 66 Euro 54 , Brit Pd 52, Yuan 57, Yen 45

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score  47
2 up, 27 Neutral, 6 Downtrend  Score -4
Homebuilders (XHB) 43, Real Estate (IYR) 51, Finance (XLF) 47, Regional Banks (IAT) 43 Insurance (IAK) 50 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 48, Retail (XRT) 51, Consumer Disc (XLY) 51, Telecom (IYZ) 42, Consumer Staple (XLP) 49, Health (XLV) 47, Pharma (IHE) 34, Biotech (PBE ) 38, Transports (IYT) 42 Aerospace (ITA) 47, Shipping (SEA) 31, Airlines ($XAL) 34, ,Utilities (XLU) 43 , Metals and Mining( XME) 49, Copper (COPX) 35, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 66, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 58 Oil Service (OIH) 58,  Coal (KOL) 46, Energy (XLE) 65, Gold Miners (GDX) 53 Steel (SLX) 42, Basic Mat (XLB) 43, Timber (Wood) 41 AgriBusiness (MOO) 43, Tech (XLK) 43, Semiconductors (SMH) 49, Software (SWH) 52 Networking (PXQ) 47, Internet (FDN) 39

Bonds (Relative Strength)

(1 up, 2 down, 6 neutral) Score -1

MUB (Natl Muni) 60 NCA(Ca Muni) 44

BND (Total Bond Index) 55 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 61, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 37 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 57, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 54, PFF (US preferred) 54, HYG (High Yield) 53

DJI holds near 20 day rest of market at 50 day

DJIA 12015.78 -107.01 SPX 1307.40 -8.04 NASDAQ 2722.99 -33.43
Russell 2000 799.65 -13.31 .86 DJT 4986.21 -107.22 DJU 409.37 -.97 VIX 22.13
US Gov rates: 6 mo .142% 2 yr .7472% 10 yr 3.48 +.01 30 yr 4.58 -.02
Gold 1414 +13.90 Silver 33.30 +.43 Copper 4.28 -.06 Platinum 1776.70 -8.60
Oil 98.10 +4.53 RBOB 2.72 +.12 Nat Gas 3.90 +.02
Aussie 1.0042 +.0036 EURO 1.3691 +.0093 Pound 1.6115 +.0075
USD Index 77.44 -.19 DBC 29.29 +.64
Days to option expiration: 18
Long Term Opinions:

US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .71
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS)..85   10 day average .77
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .72     10 day ave .55
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.15
Williams %R 12 day -86.26 weekly 26.57
Bulls 53.3  Bears 18.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.82 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 1 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max) 8, -6
DJIA MACD 133.81 Falling/Negative Cross 2-22
NYSE New Highs 60 (12/7 429)  New Lows 27
NASDAQ New Highs 43 (12-7 352) New Lows 44 (3 month high)
NYSE Advance-Decline -897 NASDAQ Advance-Decline --1367
Mikey A/D line (2/18 24526). NYSE +21625 NASDAQ ( 2-18, 10095 ) +6799
NYSE % above 200 day ave  75%

Support: 1190 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1313 SPX; 13136 DJIA
Downside reversal 1270 SPX, DJIA 11800, NASDAQ 2679

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
1-5 Gold sell signal
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmed by AD Line.
1-12 Dollar sell signal
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-24 Oil sell signal
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..over hall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross

Moving Averages

5 day 12263 Falling/Price below
20 day 12143 Rising/ Price below
50 day 11851 Rising/Price above
200 day 10921Rising/Price above
20 week 11452 Rising/Price above
50 week 10908 Rising/Price above
90 week 10385 Rising/Price above
200 week 10898 Rising/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 48
DJIA 68, Canada 59 Latin Amer 45 Mexico 32 Brazil 42
Europe 55 UK 61 Germany 63 Spain 51  Russia 45
China 36 Japan 62 Korea 19, Singapore 36, Taiwan 36 India 48 Australia 53
Emer Mkts 43 Total World market Index 51

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 51, Nat Gas 17, Gasoline 78
Gold 76 Copper 39 Silver 86, Platinum 38
Grains 33 DBC 57

Note: Grains and Copper go red

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 40  Aussie 62 Euro 45 , Brit Pd 59, Yuan 63, Yen 40

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score  47
5 up, 29 Neutral, Downtrend 5 Score +0

Homebuilders (XHB) 43, Real Estate (IYR) 55, Finance (XLF) 47, Regional Banks (IAT) 45 Insurance (IAK) 53 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 48, Retail (XRT) 49, Consumer Disc (XLY) 48, Telecom (IYZ) 34, Consumer Staple (XLP) 53, Health (XLV) 44, Pharma (IHE) 37, Biotech (PBE ) 35, Transports (IYT) 40 Aerospace (ITA) 43, Shipping (SEA) 40, Airlines ($XAL) 29, ,Utilities (XLU) 46 , Metals and Mining( XME) 48, Copper (COPX) 35, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 69, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 67 Oil Service (OIH) 65,  Coal (KOL) 45, Energy (XLE) 73, Gold Miners (GDX) 63 Steel (SLX) 41/, Basic Mat (XLB) 45, Timber (Wood) 41 AgriBusiness (MOO) 41, Tech (XLK) 41, Semiconductors (SMH) 48, Software (SWH) 50 Networking (PXQ) 47, Internet (FDN) 40

Bonds (Relative Strength)

(1 up, 2 down, 6 neutral) Score -1

MUB (Natl Muni) 56 NCA(Ca Muni) 42

BND (Total Bond Index) 53 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 60, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 30 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 54, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 52, PFF (US preferred) 55, HYG (High Yield) 52

Oils are holding the averages up especially the DJI. Most stocks have made a quick trip to the 50 day so the most published average is not showing the kind of weakness that the overall market is showing. The end game always has the oils showing relative strength and you can see by the industry groups that is the case here. You can get a clearer picture by watching the industry group rotation.

Mikey

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

A very big down day

DJIA 12212.79 -178.46 SPX 1315.44 -27.57 NASDAQ 2746.42 -77.53
Russell 2000 812.96 -21.86 DJT 5093.23 -202.97 DJU 410.84 -.79 VIX 20.80
US Gov rates: 6 mo .142% 2 yr .7472% 10 yr 3.47 -.11 30 yr 4.60 -.09
Gold 1400.10 Silver 32.87 +.58 Copper 4.34 -.14 Platinum 1785.30 -59.30
Oil 93.57 +7.37 RBOB 2.60 +.05 Nat Gas 3.88 +.01
Aussie 1.0006 -.0164 EURO 1.3598 -.0034 Pound 1.6036 -.0101
USD Index 77.636 -.06 DBC 28.65 -.04
Days to option expiration: 19

Long Term Opinions:

US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .77
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS)..95   10 day average .75
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .56     10 day ave .53
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.15
Williams %R 12 day -48.83 weekly .16.71
Bulls 53.4 Bears 23.3 Bull/Bear ratio 2.29 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 5 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) 13, -3
DJIA MACD 153.56   Falling/Negative Cross 2-22
NYSE New Highs 132 (12/7 429)  New Lows 15
NASDAQ New Highs 83 (12-7 352) New Lows 35
NYSE Advance-Decline -2364 ( 8 to 1) NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1929 (6 TO 1)
Mikey A/D line (2/18 24526). NYSE 22162 NASDAQ ( 2-18, 10095 ) +8166
NYSE % above 200 day ave  77%

Support: 1190 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1313 SPX; 13136 DJIA
Downside reversal 1270 SPX, DJIA 11800, NASDAQ 2679

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
1-5 Gold sell signal
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmed by AD Line.
1-12 Dollar sell signal
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-24 Oil sell signal
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..over hall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-16 Gold buy signal
2-18 options expire
2-21 Consumer confidence strong
2-22 IBD Uptrend under pressure 12212
2-22 MACD negative cross

Moving Averages

5 day 12287 Falling/Price below
20 day 12137 Rising/ Price above
50 day 11837 Rising/Price above
200 day 10915 Rising/Price above
20 week 11452 Rising/Price above
50 week 10908 Rising/Price above
90 week 10385 Rising/Price above
200 week 10898 Rising/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 51
DJIA 74, Canada 66
Latin Amer 47 Mexico 32 Brazil 45
Europe 65 UK 67 Germany 66 Spain 51  Russia 37
China 39 Japan 66 Korea 33, Singapore 39, Taiwan 40 India 51 Australia 56
Emer Mkts 46 Total World market Index 54

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 39, Nat Gas 10, Gasoline 73
Gold 67 Copper 38 Silver 74, Platinum 41
Grains 32 DBC 48

Note: Grains and Copper go red

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 52 Aussie 64 Euro 39 , Brit Pd 52, Yuan 69, Yen 34

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score  50
3 up, 29 Neutral, Downtrend 3 Score +0

Homebuilders (XHB) 47, Real Estate (IYR) 61, Finance (XLF) 49, Regional Banks (IAT) 49 Insurance (IAK) 56 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 51, Retail (XRT) 57, Consumer Disc (XLY) 56, Telecom (IYZ) 41, Consumer Staple (XLP) 56, Health (XLV) 57, Pharma (IHE) 45, Biotech (PBE ) 42, Transports (IYT) 46 Aerospace (ITA) 49, Shipping (SEA) 38, Airlines ($XAL) 34, ,Utilities (XLU) 48 , Metals and Mining( XME) 48, Copper (COPX) 37, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 59, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 57 Oil Service (OIH) 63,  Coal (KOL) 41, Energy (XLE) 68, Gold Miners (GDX) 59 Steel (SLX) 58/, Basic Mat (XLB) 44, Timber (Wood) 47 AgriBusiness (MOO) 42, Tech (XLK) 43, Semiconductors (SMH) 55, Software (SWH) 54 Networking (PXQ) 52, Internet (FDN) 47

Note: 1 day turns industry groups neutral

Bonds (Relative Strength)

(1 up, 2 down, 6 neutral) Score -1

MUB (Natl Muni) 54 NCA(Ca Muni) 39

BND (Total Bond Index) 53 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 60, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 31 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 52, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 54, PFF (US preferred) 56, HYG (High Yield) 51

Note: Strength in US LT bonds weakness in High Yield and Preferred

Still too early to call... lets see if there is a follow through. Usually these sell off produce a sell signal that then produces a bounce back. A trip below the 50 day would be the first step. The 50 day is at 11850 now. The last breakout was at 11500. Somewhere between the 2 would be support for the first sell off. Watch for the red numbers in the industry groups. IBD went to uptrend under pressure today on the close the 3rd time since 1/20

Mikey

Housing prices and consumer surveys

Single-family home prices fell for the sixth month in a row in December, bringing them closer to the low seen in 2009.The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.4 percent in December from November on a seasonally adjusted basis. For the year 2010, prices fell 2.4 percent.

While the composite held above its 2009 low, 11 cities hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007. Unadjusted for seasonal impact, home prices fell 1 percent for the month, leaving them just 2.3 percent above their April 2009 lows. Eighteen of the 20 cities showed annual price declines in December and 19 out of 20 saw monthly price drops.During the fourth quarter, home prices declined 3.9 percent from the previous quarter and were down 4.1 percent compared to the fourth quarter 2009

In related news U.S. consumer confidence rose in February to a three-year high amid improved optimism about the economy and income prospects, according the conference board.

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 70.4 in February from a revised 64.8 in January. It was the highest level since February 2008. January was originally reported as 60.6. The Conference Board revised January's figure to 65.6 earlier in the month to reflect newly included data collected by the Nielsen Co that will now be part of the survey.

The expectations index rose to 95.1, its highest level since December 2006, from 87.3, while consumer expectations for inflation in the coming 12 months rose to 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent the month before. Inflation expectations were at their highest since June 2009.

I guess the people surveyed were short their houses.

Mikey

Monday, February 21, 2011

Thr risk trade and its implications

The risk trade that has driven equities and commodity prices since the Federal Reserve started talking about the second round of quantitative easing last year is under threat from inflation

"The turning point in the markets last year was at the end of August when Ben Bernanke started talking about QE2 "Interest rates shot up and the 'risk move started which drove up more risky assets like equities, emerging markets, commodities and commodity currencies like the Aussie dollar "This move happened in the most correlated way I have ever seen in the markets and was provoked by the Fed putting liquidity in the system.

The change from deflation worries to soaring inflation is behind the crisis in the Middle-East and will have big implications for the market as the year progresses."Remember that hunger starves civilization, food price inflation has clearly been a big driver for the turmoil in the Middle-East."

The Fed still thinks that inflation expectations in the US are too low, focusing on the weak labor markets and keeping quantitative easing going, . "This inflates everything everywhere else and is provoking a policy response in emerging markets in general and China in particular. This is potentially dangerous for our economies and our markets.

"We should be given the debt situation and a lot of other characteristics of a deflationary period. However, we see inflation popping up. So in fact in fighting deflation, the Fed may be creation inflation.
On the surface, growth conditions look good but a lot of this growth is artificial because it has been driven by an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. "QE2 changed the rules of the game. Markets will be vulnerable once that the liquidity flow dries up or reverses but the timing of this is difficult.

Commodities, a traditional inflation hedge, may have some way to run but this current manipulation by the Fed was created before the economy was rebuilt. The result is that assets other than financial assets have not appreciated and job growth did not recover. That means that the inflation is built on a shaky foundation. A foundation that cannot be supported by the current economy.

"We should remember that in the long run returns of commodities corrected for inflation are quite low, eventually there is always a supply reaction." The troubles occurring in the Middle East are just one problem that has been created. The net result will be what should have happened in the beginning of this crisis, a deflationary collapse.

Mikey

Friday, February 18, 2011

Opions expire at market highs

DJIA 12391.25 +73.11 SPX 1343.01 +2.58 NASDAQ 2833.95 +2.37
Russell 2000 834.82+.80 DJT 5296.20 -1.90 DJU  411.13 -.10 VIX 16.43
US Gov rates: 6 mo .137%  2 yr .751% 10 yr 3.58 -.01 30 yr 4.69 -.01
Gold 1388.60 +3.50 Silver32.29 +.72 Copper 4.48 uch Platinum 1844
Oil 86.20 -.16    RBOB 2.55 +.03 Nat Gas 3.87 +.01
Aussie 1.0170 +.0036 EURO 1.3632 +.0079 Pound 1.6137 +.0065
USD Index 77.72 -.34 DBC 28.69 -.03
Days to option expiration: 1

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Bottoming : Current trend down
Stocks: At 2 year highs...... Current trend up
Gold: Primary top forming ..... Current trend up
Silver: Blow out top....Current trend up
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend Neutral
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down
US Economy: Proped up with debt.....Current trend up

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .94 Overbought
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS)..80       10 day average .72
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .49      10 day ave .54
Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.15
Williams %R 12 day -000 weekly .06
Bulls 53.4 Bears 23.3 Bull/Bear ratio 2.29 Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 20, -1 ...At the top
DJIA MACD 165.89 Rising/Positive cross 1-18
NYSE New Highs 352(12/7 429)  New Lows 7
NASDAQ New Highs 247 (12-7 352) New Lows 14
NYSE Advance-Decline +446 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +62
Mikey A/D line (2/18 24526). NYSE +24526 NASDAQ ( 2-18, 10095 ) +10095
NYSE % above 200 day ave  80%

Support: 1190 SPX, 11200 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1313 SPX; 13136 DJIA
Downside reversal 1270 SPX, DJIA 11800, NASDAQ 2679

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmd by AD Line.
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..overhall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure
2-1 IBD uptrend resumes (3 rd change in past month)
2-3 Cramer says Gold decline over
2-4 DJI 4 th closing high in a row, NASDAQ closes at a new high, Transports 4% off highs
NASDAQ AD line lagging
2-18 options expire

Moving Averages

5 day 12298 Rising/Price below
20 day 12125 Rising/ Price above
50 day 10385 Rising/Price above
200 day 10906 Rising/Price above
20 week 11452 Rising/Price above
50 week 10908 Rising/Price above
90 week 10385 Rising/Price above
200 week 10898 Rising/Price above

Trends Green up, Red Down, Black neutral

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 61

DJIA 74, Canada 68
Latin Amer 53 Mexico 34 Brazil 48
Europe 71 UK 71 Germany 73 Spain 60  Russia 52
China 44 Japan 62 Korea 32, Singapore 39, Taiwan 37 India 51 Australia 49
Emer Mkts 49 Total World market Index 65

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 45, Nat Gas 17, Gasoline 67
Gold 67 Copper 55 Silver 85, Platinum 48
Grains 49 DBC 58

Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 36 Aussie 73 Euro 56 , Brit Pd 65, Yuan 74, Yen 39

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score  63
24 up, 11Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +24
Homebuilders (XHB) 62, Real Estate (IYR) 71, Finance (XLF) 68, Regional Banks (IAT) 61 Insurance (IAK) 69 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 71, Retail (XRT) 68, Consumer Disc (XLY) 74, Telecom (IYZ) 56, Consumer Staple (XLP) 64, Health (XLV) 68, Pharma (IHE) 58, Biotech (PBE ) 52, Transports (IYT) 65 Aerospace (ITA) 73, Shipping (SEA) 55, Airlines ($XAL) 45, ,Utilities (XLU) 52 , Metals and Mining( XME) 61, Copper (COPX) 46, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 67, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 71 Oil Service (OIH) 72,  Coal (KOL) 51, Energy (XLE) 74, Gold Miners (GDX) 62 Steel (SLX) 58/, Basic Mat (XLB) 61, Timber (Wood) 62 AgriBusiness (MOO) 55, Tech (XLK) 67, Semiconductors (SMH) 73, Software (SWH) 71 Networking (PXQ) 66, Internet (FDN) 55

Bonds (Relative Strength)

(2 up, 1 down, 6 neutral) Score +1

MUB (Natl Muni) 58 NCA(Ca Muni) 48

BND (Total Bond Index) 47 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 59, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 34 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 44, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 45, PFF (US preferred) 72, HYG (High Yield) 64

Posting Times

Monday, February 28, 2011

Friday, February 25, 2011

Thursday, February 24, 2011

DJI holds at 12000 above 50 day remains in an uptrend

DJI holds near 20 day rest of market at 50 day

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

A very big down day

Housing prices and consumer surveys

Monday, February 21, 2011

Thr risk trade and its implications

Friday, February 18, 2011

Opions expire at market highs