Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Sunday, January 2, 2011

A year of dollar bashing comes to an end....But..you may be surprised if I told you that...

DJIA 11577.51 +7.50 SPX  1257.64 -.24 NASDAQ  2652.87 -10.11
IBD 292.63 -.59 DJT 5106.75 -1.85 DJU 404.99 +.24 VIX 17.75
US Gov rates: 6 mo .188%  2 yr .5855% 10 yr 3.29 -.07 30yr 4.33 -.09 
Gold 1421.40 +15.60 Silver 30.88 +.41 Copper 4.36 0 Platinum 1773 +29.00
Oil 91.39 +1.54 RBOB 2.45 +.06 Nat Gas 4.40 +.06
Aussie 1.0266 +.0062 EURO 1.3309 +.0074 Pound 1.5577 +.0242
USD Index 79.29 -.51 DBC 27.55 +1.51
Days to option expiration 11 Day 10 of Jan Expiration 1-15

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:

Noteable:

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .89 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).74
10 day average .57
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .58
Put Premium 10 day average .58
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.32
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.15
Daily-Weekly= +.17
Williams %R 12 day -27.31 , Weekly -6.71
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 7 Weekly 9 (1 low, 10 max) 16,-2
DJIA MACD 97.30 Falling/Negative cross 12-31
NYSE New Highs 110 New Lows 2
NASDAQ New Highs 82 New Lows 6
NYSE Advance-Decline +245 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -439
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +14855 NASDAQ +6873
NYSE % above 200 day ave: 76%

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging
12-31 Negative MACD cross
Moving Averages

5 day 11572 Rising/Price at 
20 day 11480 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11307 Rising/Price above
200 day 10737 Rising/Price above
20 week 11081 Rising/Price above
50 week 11307 Rising/Price above
90 week 10691 Rising/Price above
200 week 10912 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies (Power Numbers)


DJIA 80 Emer Mkts 61 China 31, Brazil 58 Europe 76  Russia 73 
Japan 62, Korea 82, India 61, Australia 58  Germany 25, Spain 28 UK 53

Oil 62, Nat Gas 56, Gasoline 70,
Gold 63, Copper 74,  Silver 70, Platinum 66
Grains 69 DBC 69

 USD 38, Aussie 70, Euro 54 , Brit Pd 52, Yuan 55, Yen 70

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
 18 up, 12 Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +18
Homebuilders (XHB) 62,  Real Estate (IYR) 60, Finance (XLF) 65, Insirance (IAK) 58 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 62, Retail (XRT) 61, Consumer Disc (XLY) 56, Consumer Staple (XLP) 58, Health (XLV) 55, Pharma (IHE) 55, Biotech (PBE )68, Transports (IYT) 62 Aerospace (ITA) 60, Shipping (SEA) 48, Airlines ($XAL) 44, ,Utilities (XLU) 53  , Metals and Mining( XME) 68, Copper (COPX) 70, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 72,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 75, Oil Service (OIH) 68,  Coal (KOL) 70,  Energy (XLE) 73, Gold Miners (GDX) 56, Steel  (SLX) 62, Basic Mat (XLB) 72, Tech (XLK) 58, Semiconductors (SMH) 58, Software (SWH) 63, Networking (PXQ) 62



Bonds (Relative Strength)
 (0 up, 2 down, 5 neutral) Score -2
MUB (Natl Muni) 43 NCA(Ca Muni) 48 
BND (Total Bond Index) 44 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 56, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 39 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 50, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 44, PFF (US preferred) 47, HYG (High Yield) 58,

I think that the single biggest theme of this year that shaped the world stock and commodity markets was that the Fed was destroying the dollar. You would have to be deaf, blind, or in a mental institution not to know that the dollar was being destroyed by the Fed.

If I was to ask you the question what did the dollar do in 2010, what would you say? The dollar index ended 2009 at 78.18. It ended 2010 at 79.29 or a gain of 1.1%. That is the power of the media and the financial press. They clearly misstated the value of the dollar in 2010. I would venture to say that 100% of the people thought the dollar declined in 2010.

I will say that prices that are based on a falling dollar are way out of whack. Next year will either see the dollar justify those prices or there will be a major readjustment . It should be a year where the chickens come home to roost.

Mikey

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)