Reversal day ?????

DJIA 11911.80 +20.43 SPX  1270.20 -1.69 NASDAQ  2681.75 -10.27
DJT 5139 -35.93 DJU 408.52 +1.94 VIX 17.38
US Gov rates: 6 mo .167%  2 yr .60.91% 10 yr 3.32 -.02  30yr 4.40-
Gold 1378.80 -44.10 Silver 29.73 -1.77 Copper 4.46 +.04 Platinum 1747.40 -39.00
Oil 89.38 -2.17 RBOB 2.41 -.02  Nat Gas 4.66 +.01
Aussie 1.0063 -.0106  EURO 1.3245 -.0052 Pound 1.5498 +.0106
USD Index 79.70 +.42 DBC 27.30 -.37
Days to option expiration 9 Day 12 of Jan Expiration 1-15

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up  extended
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral Stalled
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:

Noteable:

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52
(Prices trading below these breakouts are considered trend reversals)

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .90 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).60
10 day average .65
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .51
Put Premium 10 day average .57
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.11
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.22
Daily-Weekly= -.11
Williams %R 12 day -7.88, Weekly -2.67
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 19,-1
DJIA MACD 108.80 Rising/Positive cross 1-3
NYSE New Highs 188 New Lows 9
NASDAQ New Highs 143 New Lows 3
NYSE Advance-Decline -886 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -961
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +15414 NASDAQ +7329
NYSE % above 200 day ave: 76 %

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
Downside reversal 1207 SPX, DJIA 11276, NASDAQ 2550

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging
12-31 Negative MACD cross
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up

Moving Averages

5 day 11599 Rising/Price above 
20 day 11511 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11329 Rising/Price above
200 day 10746 Rising/Price above
20 week 11081 Rising/Price above
50 week 11307 Rising/Price above
90 week 10691 Rising/Price above
200 week 10912 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies (Power Numbers)

DJIA 83 Emer Mkts 56 China 36, Brazil 62 Europe 59  Russia 76 
Japan 57, Korea 84, India 52, Australia 51  Germany 24, Spain 16 UK 63

Oil 57, Nat Gas 49, Gasoline 51,
Gold 48, Copper 58,  Silver 50, Platinum 57
Grains 60 DBC 59
Possible reversal in progress in commodities

USD 63, Aussie 53, Euro 30 , Brit Pd 42, Yuan 42, Yen 67
Dollar holds at 50 day and turns up
US Industry Groups (relative strength)
 20 up, 10 Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +21

Homebuilders (XHB) 68,  Real Estate (IYR) 55, Finance (XLF) 71, Insirance (IAK) 65 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 62, Retail (XRT) 52, Consumer Disc (XLY) 59, Consumer Staple (XLP) 55, Health (XLV) 65, Pharma (IHE) 59, Biotech (PBE ) 53, Transports (IYT) 62 Aerospace (ITA) 63, Shipping (SEA) 59, Airlines ($XAL) 54, ,Utilities (XLU) 60  , Metals and Mining( XME) 69, Copper (COPX) 64, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 65,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 70, Oil Service (OIH) 55,  Coal (KOL) 77,  Energy (XLE) 70, Gold Miners (GDX) 42, Steel  (SLX) 69, Basic Mat (XLB) 68, Tech (XLK) 70, Semiconductors (SMH) 60, Software (SWH) 66, Networking (PXQ) 65

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (2 up, 1 down, 6 neutral) Score +1
MUB (Natl Muni) 53 NCA(Ca Muni) 50 

BND (Total Bond Index) 39 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 60, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 55 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 47, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 50, PFF (US preferred) 44, HYG (High Yield) 63,

The dollar held its short term uptrend on the 50 day average and turned up. The commodities market lead by Gold got the message and tanked today. This may be the start of a least a correction in the commodities market if not the start of something much bigger. The number to keep an eye on is 81.17 on the dollar index. which was the breakdown in Sept when the "risk" QE2 trade first surfaced.

The DJIA was up for the day but there were 886 net declines on the NYSE and 961 declines on the NASDAQ on higher volume.The only way to describe today was ugly. There is still no reversal of ant breakouts and I do not have a sell signal yet but this looks interesting. Keep an eye on my industry groups. They are green now watch for red.

Mikey