DJIA 11569.71 -15.67 SPX  1257.88 -1.90 NASDAQ  2662.98 -3.95
IBD 292.63 -.59 DJT 5108.60 +4.14 DJU 404.7 -.90 VIX 17.52
US Gov rates: 6 mo .188%  2 yr .6447% 10 yr 3.36 +.01 30yr 4.42 -.01
Gold 1405.90 -7.60 Silver 30.51 -.19 Copper 4.36 +.05 Platinum 749.30 -10.90
Oil 89.84 -1.28 RBOB 2.39 -.01 Nat Gas 4.34 +.05
Aussie 1.0209 -.0004 EURO 1.3235 +.0065 Pound 1.5335 -.0076
USD Index 79.79 -.31 DBC 27.04 -.33
Days to option expiration 13 Day 9 of Jan Expiration 1-15

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-27 Retail sales +4.8% week ended 12-25 vs a year ago

Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
12-27 Weak bond auction bonds sell off
Nigerian pipeline blasts give reason for higher oil
Experts saying 100 oil near

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .90 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).83
10 day average .57
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .59
Put Premium 10 day average .59
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.42
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.16
Daily-Weekly= +.26
Williams %R 12 day -27.14 , Weekly -5.57
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 7 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 17,-3
DJIA MACD 102.68 Falling Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 150 New Lows 7
ASDAQ New Highs 124 New Lows 16
NYSE Advance-Decline +45 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -177
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +14610 NASDAQ +7312
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  75%

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging

Moving Averages

5 day 11571 Rising/Price at 
20 day 11470 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11298 Rising/Price above
200 day 10733 Rising/Price above
20 week 10852 Rising/Price above
50 week 10663 Rising/Price above
90 week 10097 Rising/Price above
200 week 10916 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies (Power Numbers)

DJIA 87 Emer Mkts 55 China 33, Brazil 54 Europe 54  Russia 74 
Japan 58, Korea 83, India 53, Australia 65  Germany 32, Spain 31 UK 60

Oil 64, Nat Gas 31, Gasoline 47,
Gold 59, Copper 61,  Silver 63, Platinum 61
Grains 62 DBC 64USD 54, Aussie 77, Euro 34 , Brit Pd 38, Yuan 53, Yen 78

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
 17 up, 13 Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +17

Homebuilders (XHB) 68,  Real Estate (IYR) 56, Finance (XLF) 58, Insirance (IAK) 56 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 63, Retail (XRT) 68, Consumer Disc (XLY) 60, Consumer Staple (XLP) 58, Health (XLV) 59, Pharma (IHE) 57, Biotech (PBE )74, Transports (IYT) 61 Aerospace (ITA) 58, SEA (Shipping) 46, Airlines ($XAL) 45, ,Utilities (XLU) 52  , Metals and Mining( XME) 69, Copper (COPX) 67, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 72,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 74, Oil Service (OIH) 66,  Coal (KOL) 71,  Energy (XLE) 73, Gold Miners (GDX) 52, Steel  (SLX) 62, Basic Mat (XLB) 65, Tech (XLK) 59, Semiconductors (SMH) 73, Software (SWH) 58, Networking (PXQ) 66

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (0 up, 3 down, 6 neutral) Score -3

MUB (Natl Muni) 40 NCA(Ca Muni) 37 
BND (Total Bond Index) 39 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 49, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 35TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 45, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 42, PFF (US preferred) 41, HYG (High Yield) 55,

DJIA 11585.38 +9.84 SPX  1259.78 +1.27 NASDAQ 2666.93 +4.05
IBD 293.22 +.66 DJT 5104.46 +4.03 DJU 405.55 -1.37 VIX 17.28
US Gov rates: 6 mo .195%  2 yr .6486% 10 yr 3.35 -.10 30yr 4.43 -.06
Gold 1413.50 +8.10  Silver 30.70 +.38 Copper 4.31 -.01 Platinum 1760.20 +8.90
Oil 91.12 -.17 RBOB 2.40  Nat Gas 4.29 +.01
Aussie 1.0231 +.0087 EURO 1.3171 +.0104 Pound 1.5411 +.0113
USD Index 80.10 -.57 DBC 27.37 +.01
Days to option expiration 14 Day 8 of Jan Expiration 1-15

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-27 Retail sales +4.8% week ended 12-25 vs a year ago

Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
12-27 Weak bond auction bonds sell off
Nigerian pipeline blasts give reason for higher oil
Experts saying 100 oil near

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .91 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).
10 day average .
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .
Put Premium 10 day average .
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =
Williams %R 12 day -7.14, Weekly -5.22
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 19,-1
DJIA MACD 105.22 flat  Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 191 New Lows 20
NASDAQ New Highs 135 New Lows 15
NYSE Advance-Decline +831 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +247
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +14565 NASDAQ +7489
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  75%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging

Moving Averages

5 day 11570 Rising/Price at 
20 day 11454 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11277 Rising/Price above
200 day 10729 Rising/Price above
20 week 10852 Rising/Price above
50 week 10663 Rising/Price above
90 week 10097 Rising/Price above
200 week 10916 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 84 Emer Mkts 49 China 30, Brazil 46 Europe 60 Russia 66 
Japan 46, Korea 76, India 47, Australia 59  Germany 28, Spain 36 UK 56
Oil 63, Nat Gas 33, Gasoline 51,
Gold 54, Copper 63,  Silver 56, Platinum 65
USD 59, Aussie 74, Euro 30 , Brit Pd 42, Yuan 50, Yen 69
Grains 61  DBC 64

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
(Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )
 24 up, 6 Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +24

Homebuilders (XHB) 63,  Real Estate (IYR) 60, Finance (XLF) 66, Insirance 61 (IAK), Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 65, Retail (XRT) 65, Consumer Disc (XLY) 60, Consumer Staple (XLP) 59, Health (XLV) 59, Pharma (IHE) 61, Biotech (PBE )75, Transports (IYT) 61 Aerospace (ITA) 61, SEA (Shipping) 47, Airlines ($XAL) 46, ,Utilities (XLU) 54  , Metals and Mining( XME) 68 Copper (COPX) 67, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 71,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 74, Oil Service (OIH) 66   Coal (KOL) 69 Energy (XLE) 72, Gold Miners (GDX) 55, Steel  (SLX) 60, Basic Mat (XLB) 73, Tech (XLK) 64, Semiconductors (SMH) 60, Software (SWH) 68, Networking (PXQ) 63


Bonds (Relative Strength)
 (0 up, 4 down, 5 neutral) Score -4

MUB (Natl Muni) 40 NCA(Ca Muni) 37 
BND (Total Bond Index) 39 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 48, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 31
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 45, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 42, PFF (US preferred) 39, HYG (High Yield) 55,

DJIA closes at new high

DJIA 11575.54 +20.51  SPX  1258.51 +.97 NASDAQ 2662.88 -4.39 
IBD 292.36 -1.65 DJT 5090.43 -5.26 DJU 406.92 +1.06 VIX 17.52
US Gov rates: 6 mo .188%  2 yr .7354% 10 yr 3.45 +.11 30yr 4.49 +.08 
Gold 1405.60 +22.70  Silver 30.32 +1.06 Copper 4.32 +.04 Platinum 1751.30 +16.00
Oil 91.29 +.29 RBOB 2.40  Nat Gas 4.28 +.17
Aussie 1.0126 +.0056 EURO 1.3067 -.0041 Pound 1.5298 -.0023
USD Index 80.67 DBC 27.36 +.29
Days to option expiration 15 Day 7 of Jan Expiration 1-15

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-27 Retail sales +4.8% week ended 12-25 vs a year ago

Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
12-27 Weak bond auction bonds sell off
Nigerian pipeline blasts give reason for higher oil
Experts saying 100 oil near

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .90 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).45
10 day average .57
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .58
Put Premium 10 day average .58
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.03
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.15
Williams %R 12 day -4.62, Weekly -1.59%
Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 20,0
DJIA MACD 105.52Rising/ Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 136 New Lows 17 
NASDAQ New Highs 130 New Lows 9
NYSE Advance-Decline -103 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -466
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +13734  NASDAQ +7242
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  75%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging

Moving Averages

5 day 11560 Rising/Price at 
20 day 11425 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11277 Rising/Price above
200 day 10724 Rising/Price above
20 week 10852 Rising/Price above
50 week 10663 Rising/Price above
90 week 10097 Rising/Price above
200 week 10916 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 85 Emer Mkts 52 China 32, Brazil 40 Europe 61 Russia 68 
Japan 44, Korea 76, India 47, Australia 61  Germany 29, Spain 36 UK 61
Oil 60, Nat Gas 28, Gasoline 51,
Gold 46, Copper 69,  Silver 44, Platinum 63
USD 63, Aussie 69, Euro 35 , Brit Pd 42, Yuan 53, Yen 55
Grains 66, DBC 63

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
(Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )
 22 up, 10 Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +22
Homebuilders (XHB) 62,  Real Estate (IYR) 58, Finance (XLF) 68, Insirance 61 (IAK), Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 69, Retail (XRT) 62, Consumer Disc (XLY) 58, Consumer Staple (XLP) 59, Health (XLV) 58, Pharma (IHE) 62, Biotech (PBE )76, Transports (IYT) 60 Aerospace (ITA) 62, SEA (Shipping) 41, Airlines ($XAL) 41, ,Utilities (XLU) 56  , Metals and Mining( XME) 66 Copper (COPX) 68, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 69,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 70, Oil Service (OIH) 60   Coal (KOL) 65 Energy (XLE) 69, Gold Miners (GDX) 54, Steel  (SLX) 58, Basic Mat (XLB) 72, Tech (XLK) 63, Semiconductors (SMH) 58, Software (SWH) 67, Networking (PXQ) 62


Bonds (Relative Strength)
 (0 up, 6 down, 3 neutral) Score -6

MUB (Natl Muni) 40 NCA(Ca Muni) 33 
BND (Total Bond Index) 30 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 47, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 32
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 39, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 33, PFF (US preferred) 33, HYG (High Yield) 51,

I am seeing experts appearing on the major networks talking about 5.00 gasoline now. Full court press on commodities now. They are taking money out of the consumers pocket and saying how great retail sales are. The emerging markets and China have been selling off as this process goes on. Those commodity prices are what is hurting China. This is so much like 2007

China

2007 replayed

DJIA 11555.03 -18.46 SPX  1257.54 +1.67 NASDAQ 2667.27 +1.67
IBD 294.01 unch DJT 5095.69 +16.77  DJU 405.86 +.13 VIX 17.67  
US Gov rates: 6 mo .193%  2 yr .6392% 10 yr 3.34 30yr 4.41
Gold 1382.90 Silver 29.26 Copper 4.28 Platinum 1735.50
Oil 91.00 RBOB 2.40  Nat Gas 4.11
Aussie 1.0070 -.0008 EURO 1.3167 +1.00 Pound 1.5328 -.0026
USD Index 80.67 DBC 27.11 -.01
Days to option expiration 16 Day 6 of December Expiration 1-15

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009

Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .89 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).67
10 day average .57
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .56
Put Premium 10 day average .57
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.23
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.14
Williams %R 12 day -9.92, Weekly -3.71
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 19,-1
DJIA MACD 104.84 Rising/ Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 112 New Lows 11 
NASDAQ New Highs 144 New Lows 12
NYSE Advance-Decline +330 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +431
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +13837  NASDAQ +7708
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  75%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging
Moving Averages

5 day 11555 Rising/Price at 
20 day 11540 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11267 Rising/Price above
200 day 11720 Rising/Price above
20 week 10852 Rising/Price above
50 week 10663 Rising/Price above
90 week 10097 Rising/Price above
200 week 10916 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 85 Emer Mkts 53 China 32, Brazil 35 Europe 55 Russia 69 
Japan 47, Korea 69, India 51, Australia 56  Germany 29, Spain 32 UK 73
Oil 61, Nat Gas 28, Gasoline 55,
Gold 47, Copper 69,  Silver 49, Platinum 57
USD 67, Aussie 66, Euro 33 , Brit Pd 40, Yuan 44, Yen 50
Grains 61, DBC 65

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
(Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )
 23 up, 9 Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +23

Homebuilders (XHB) 70,  Real Estate (IYR) 59, Finance (XLF) 70, Insirance 64 (IAK), Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 71, Retail (XRT) 63, Consumer Disc (XLY) 62, Consumer Staple (XLP) 58, Health (XLV) 59, Pharma (IHE) 63, Biotech (PBE )83, Transports (IYT) 61 Aerospace (ITA) 61, SEA (Shipping) 47, Airlines ($XAL) 41, ,Utilities (XLU) 55  , Metals and Mining( XME) 68 Copper (COPX) 64, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 71,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 73, Oil Service (OIH) 62   Coal (KOL) 66 Energy (XLE) 70, Gold Miners (GDX) 48, Steel  (SLX) 61, Basic Mat (XLB) 73, Tech (XLK) 67, Semiconductors (SMH) 64, Software (SWH) 71, Networking (PXQ) 68



Bonds (Relative Strength)
 (0 up, 3 down, 2 neutral) Score -3
MUB (Natl Muni) 41 NCA(Ca Muni) 34 
BND (Total Bond Index) 35 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 43, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 32
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 45, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 40, PFF (US preferred) 36, HYG (High Yield) 55,


I feel I am watching an old movie. The stock market complete with emerging market growth, commodities, rising oil prices gold, the falling dollar and falling housing prices are back. Correct me if I am wrong, but I saw this movie in 2007. I remember in the Spring of 2007 oil prices were going up on pipeline shutdowns in Nigeria. I also China was raisings rates to cool off their economy and that even that would not stop oil prices.

This was on CNBC today.

The hot commodities trade had cooled Monday morning on news of an interest rate hike out of China. China’s central bank raised the one-year Yuan lending rate by 0.25 percentage points on Saturday in another attempt to slow inflation, which hit a 28-month high of 5.1% in November. Investor bets that China’s latest effort to reign in prices would prove successful sent futures for agricultural products and crude lower Monday.

Commodities investor and Fast Money Contributor Dennis Gartman was betting that the sell-off was a knee-jerk reaction and wouldn’t last, particularly for crude [CLC1 91.13 -0.38 (-0.42%) ].   Gartman believes crude is set to skyrocket and that the case for higher oil is much stronger than China’s ability to pressure prices. “Oil is not going down very far,” said Gartman, author of the renowned Gartman Letter.

Gartman highlighted supply chain threats from the bombings in Nigeria as evidence that oil would rise. Three of Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries were shut down after a pipeline attack earlier this month. Deadly bombings on Christmas Eve had intensified violence in the country, leading to riots Monday morning.

The trend in stocks commodities, oil, and gold are up but this is what happened in the end game in 2007.
In my wildest imagination I did not think they could play this movie again so quickly. We know the outcome of this movie because we saw it in 2007.  They are using the same script  and it is a bad grade B movie. How long can it go on? Keep reading my blog I will have the signal when it happens

Mikey

Merry Christmas

DJIA 11573.49 +14.00 SPX 1256.77 -2.07 NASDAQ 2665.60 -5.88
IBD 294.01 -.77 DJT 5078.92 -19.90 DJU 405.73 +.33 VIX 16.47
US Gov rates: 6 mo .183%  2 yr .6595% 10 yr 3.38 30yr 4.47 +.02 
Gold 1380.40 -6.10  Silver 29.31 -.06 Copper 4.26 -.01 Platinum 1723 -7.90   
Oil 92.16 +1.66 RBOB 2.44 +.03 Nat Gas 4.08 -.07
Aussie 1.0078 +.0044 EURO 1.3067 +.0020 Pound 1.5354 +.0054
USD Index 81.06 - DBC 27.01 +.13
Days to option expiration 20 Day 2 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-20 New home sales edge up to a very low 300,000, existing home sales 4.65 mil rate
Case Schuller (20 city index) Sept housing index show home prices fell .8%  a new low


Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
South Korea artillery driis ..no respone from the north

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .98 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).88
10 day average .59
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .56
Put Premium 10 day average .57
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.44
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.16
Williams %R 12 day -2.41  Weekly -.70
% Advisory Service Bulls 58.8 Bears 20.6  Bull/Bear ratio 2.85
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 20,-0
DJIA MACD 105.40 Rising / Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 150 New Lows 11 
NASDAQ New Highs 127 New Lows 12
NYSE Advance-Decline -107 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -305
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +13507 NASDAQ 7277
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  75%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46..bounced off of 50 day
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
New highs in DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ.on low volume, confirmed by A/D line non confirm by NH
12-21 New high in all indexes on low volume,  confirmed by A/D line not confirmed by NH
Gold bouncing just above 50 day average
12-23 Sentiment indicators one sided. extremely overbought. Puts are extremly cheap
Mikey O/B O/S is at 98. 10 ave Put/call .57 10 day ave Put/call premuim .87
DJI New high unconfirmed by NH

Moving Averages

5 day 11527 Rising/Price above 
20 day 11376 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11257 Rising/Price above
200 day 10715 Rising/Price above
20 week 10944 Rising/Price above
50 week 10642 Rising/Price above
90 week 10057 Rising/Price above
200 week 10918 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 88 Emer Mkts 58 China 31, Brazil 40 Europe 62 Russia 75 
Japan 51, Korea 75, India 56, Australia 61  Germany 32, Spain 40, UK 77
Oil 68, Nat Gas 32, Gasoline 62,
Gold 50, Copper 69,  Silver 51, Platinum 63
USD 81.07, Aussie 70, Euro 44, Brit Pd 44, Yuan 46, Yen 55
Grains 61, DBC 72


Merry Christmas!!!!
Mikey

2011 a great year for equities they all agree

DJIA 11559.49 +26.33 SPX1258.84 +4.24 NASDAQ 2671.48 +3.87
IBD 294.78 -.75 DJT 5098.82 +3.69 DJU 405.40 +1.97 VIX 15.45
US Gov rates: 6 mo .195%  2 yr .6341% 10 yr 3.35 +.02 30yr 4.45 +.02 
Gold 1387.40 -1.40   Silver 29.38 -.01 Copper 4.27 -.01 Platinum 1730.90 +7.90  
Oil 90.48 +.66 RBOB 2.41 -Nat Gas 4.15 +.09
Aussie 1.0034 +.0045 EURO 1.3047 +.0003 Pound 1.5300 -.0075
USD Index 81.06 - DBC 27.01 +.13
Days to option expiration 20 Day 2 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-20 New home sales edge up to a very low 300,000, existing home sales 4.65 mil rate
Case Schuller (20 city index) Sept housing index show home prices fell .8%  a new low


Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
South Korea artillery driis ..no respone from the north

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .98 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).46
10 day average .57
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .55
Put Premium 10 day average 57
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.01
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.14
Williams %R 12 day --3.13, Weekly --.89
% Advisory Service Bulls 58.8 Bears 20.6  Bull/Bear ratio 2.85
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 18,-0
DJIA MACD 102.40 Rising / Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 223 New Lows 18 
NASDAQ New Highs 208 New Lows 26
NYSE Advance-Decline +675 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +137
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +13614 NASDAQ +7582
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  75%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46..bounced off of 50 day
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
New highs in DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ.on low volume, confirmed by A/D line non confirm by NH
12-21 New high in all indexes on low volume,  confirmed by A/D line not confirmed by NH
Gold bouncing just above 50 day average
12-23 Sentiment indicators one sided. extremely overbought. Puts are extremly cheap
Mikey O/B O/S is at 98. 10 ave Put/call .57 10 day ave Put/call premuim .87

Moving Averages

5 day 11512 Rising/Price above 
20 day 11356 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11248 Rising/Price above
200 day 10710 Rising/Price above
20 week 10944 Rising/Price above
50 week 10642 Rising/Price above
90 week 10057 Rising/Price above
200 week 10918 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 89 Emer Mkts 64 China 44, Brazil 43 Europe 67 Russia 80 
Japan 58, Korea 80, India 63, Australia 63  Germany 36, Spain 45, UK 77
Oil 68, Nat Gas 34, Gasoline 64,
Gold 56, Copper 74,  Silver 55, Platinum 72
USD 57, Aussie 64, Euro 54, Brit Pd 38, Yuan 40, Yen 56
Grains 60, DBC 73

Jesse Livermore, legendary trader of the early Twentieth century, had a rule: The stock market is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time. We may be in fool territory.

According to the most widely followed sentiment measure on Wall Street, the number of stock market bulls out there is eerily approaching the highest level since October 2007, the month the stock market hit an all-time high and the worst financial credit crisis since The Great Depression ensued.

The number of bulls rose to 58.8 percent this week, the highest since the 62 percent reading three years ago, according to the long running survey of financial newsletter writers conducted by research firm Investors Intelligence.

The velocity of the conversion from bull to bear is impressive, notes Investor Intelligence, as bulls numbered just 29 percent at the end of August.

“I know of not one bear for 2011,” said Peter Boockvar, chief equity strategist for Miller Tabak. “With the European problems still very much alive, a mini earthquake in the U.S. bond market over the past few weeks, and the likelihood of higher interest rates in Asia and Latin America too, the bulls better be a bit more careful here.”

Those that have turned bullish since August have been rewarded. The S&P 500 is up 23 percent from its 2010 low posted in July as a second round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, improving employment figures, and a tax compromise in Washington fueled further gains.

But now, with so many bulls out there, which bears are left to convert into buyers and take the market even higher, contrarian investors said.

The "USA Today" ran an interview this week with five Wall Street strategists, including Blackrock’s Bob Doll, Goldman Sach’s Abby Joseph Cohen and Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s David Bianco. The headline screamed — Experts Agree: Get Over Your Fear and Get Back Into Stocks.

“I have to admit that as a contrarian, I love articles like this,” wrote David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist for Canada’s Gluskin Sheff, in a note this week. “The article concludes that ‘each panelist predicted double-digit gains in 2011.’ Now that is what I would refer to as groupthink!”

Rosenberg made a name for himself for his bearishness ahead of the credit crisis despite the fact that he was employed by a firm at the very heart of the problem, Merrill Lynch. This year at Gluskin Sheff, he’s come under fire for remaining bearish during this second half rally in stocks, saying that we’ve yet to pay the price for the housing market collapse and the subsequent bailouts.

That brings us to the one problem with going against the herd to soon. The herd can be right for a long time, traders said.

“This is where it gets slightly complicated because I always wanted to trade along the line of least resistance, so I was generally moving along with the crowd, the herd, most of the time,” said Livermore, according to a 2001 biography entitled, ‘Jesse Livermore, World’s Greatest Stock Trader’. “It was when the change in trend started to appear, the change in market direction, that was the most difficult change to catch and act upon. So I was always ready to separate myself from the popular thinking, the group thinking.

The readings I am getting all all one sided now. Indicators are flashing da strong danger signal. at the end of 2010. .

Mikey

Ebenezer Scrooge continues Corporate welfare rally ..Tiny Tim's parents are still "underemployed"

DJIA 11533.16  +55.03 SPX  1254.60 +7.52 NASDAQ 2667.81 +18.05
IBD 293.09 +.83 DJT 5095.13 +53.06 DJU 403.43 -.32 VIX 16.49
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1957%  2 yr .618% 10 yr 3.33 +.03 30yr 4.43 -
Gold 1388.80 +1.70  Silver 29.39 +.04 Copper 4.28 +.07 Platinum 1723
Oil 89.82 +.45 RBOB 2.41 +.09 Nat Gas 4.06 -.18
Aussie .9989 -.0025 EURO 1.3055 -.0018 Pound 1.5375 -0047
USD Index 81.06 +.09 DBC 28.66 +.17
Days to option expiration 20 Day 2 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-20 New home sales edge up to a very low 300,000, existing home sales 4.65 mil rate
Case Schuller (20 city index) Sept housing index show home prices fell .8%  a new low


Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
South Korea artillery driis ..no respone from the north

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .94 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).47
10 day average .60
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .61
Put Premium 10 day average 57
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.08
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.17
Williams %R 12 day -21.43 , Weekly -5.06
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 8 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 18,-2
DJIA MACD 92.50 Falling / Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 256 New Lows 40 
NASDAQ New Highs 210 New Lows 24
NYSE Advance-Decline +1133 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +798
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +12939 NASDAQ +7445
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  73%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
New highs in DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ

Moving Averages

5 day 11480 Rising/Price above 
20 day 11312 Flat/ Price above 
50 day 11227 Rising/Price above
200 day 10700 Rising/Price above
20 week 10944 Rising/Price above
50 week 10642 Rising/Price above
90 week 10057 Rising/Price above
200 week 10918 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 89 Emer Mkts 60 China 35, Brazil 44 Europe 62 Russia 77 
Japan 60, Korea 77, India 62, Australia 64  Germany 36, Spain 46, UK 83
Oil 65, Nat Gas 38, Gasoline 53,
Gold 55, Copper 70,  Silver 52, Platinum 71
USD 54, Aussie 61, Euro 58, Brit Pd 40, Yuan 39, Yen 52
Grains 53, DBC 68

Ebenezer Scrooge (Ben Bernanke & the US administration and Congress) have kept the rally alive by giving to the rich and passing out the crumbs to the poor. The 600 billion QE2 and extension of unemployment benefits have kept this "recovery" going. The recovery is alive and well for corporate America. The averages hit new recovery highs again today.

Year end forecasts all say that market will rise between 20 to 25% next year. Employment still has not budged and all they are going to do is extend what they did this year. That includes extending the Bush tax cuts and extending unemployment. They are also going to cut withholding but that is just a tax deferral that will all come due in 2012. This is at the expense of an exploding US deficit which does not seem to matter.

In the meantime, Tiny Tim will have to eat the crumbs that fall from the corporate table. Such is the state of the US economy at the end of 2010 This game of corporate welfare is keeping  poor Tiny Tim's parents out of work. They are seeing their house fall in value, interest rates rising and are having to scrounge for the extra cost of a lump of coal as commodity price rise.  Meanwhile, Corporations feast of the bloated government deficit as Tim's parents get what the cash rich corporations will pay.
Consider the following:

Fed Has Aided Stocks, Not Rates or Jobs: CNBC Survey


The Federal Reserve’s policy to purchase $600 billion of bonds in a program widely known as QE2 has been mostly ineffective at lowering interest rates and will do little to improve the unemployment rate, according to the exclusive CNBC Fed Survey in December.

The survey of 76 economists, bond and stock traders, and analysts, found 63 percent saying the Fed’s program has been ineffective at lowering interest rates. A similar percentage believes the program will not help lower the unemployment rate.“I see QE2 as mainly pushing on a string,” wrote Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo [WFC 31.1725 0.3525 (+1.14%) ] Advisors. But respondents to the survey say the Fed program has played an important part in raising stock and commodity prices. In fact, nearly three-quarters of the group say the Fed’s bond purchase program has helped raise stock prices, while 63 percent see it as a reason why commodity prices are higher.

As a result, some see QE2 as a success for pushing up inflation expectations and the stock market. “Those that say the asset-purchase program is a failure are too narrowly focused on the yield on the 10-year Treasury note,’’ wrote Tony Crescenzi, senior vice-president, strategist, portfolio manager of Pimco.
“A substantial effect of the asset-purchase program is that it has led investors to believe that short-term rates will be kept low for an extended extended period. This compels investors to take risk, buoying risk assets,” said Crescenzi.


Mikey