Markets are at a crossroad

DJIA 11006.-46.47 SPX 1180.55 -7.21 NASDAQ 2498.23 -26.99 
DJT 4855.78 -40.46 DJU 391.40 +.05 IBD 100 286.00 -.89 VIX 23.54
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1674%  2 yr .4685% 10 yr 2.81  yr 4.12 -.01
Gold 1385 +19.00 Silver 28.18 +1.03 Copper 3.82 -.06
Oil 84.31 -1.32 RBOB 2.19 -.03 Nat Gas 4.18 -.02 DBC 25.07 -.24
USD Index 81.28 +.38 Aussie ..957 -.0024 EURO 1.30 +.0013
Pound 1.558 +.0016 Yen 83.61 -.04
Days to option expiration 15 Day 5 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend down
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend correcting
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend down

Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend neutral
Real Estate: Bottoming no uptrend..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Economy:
11-24 Durable goods fell 3.3%
Jobless claims fell 34000 last week to 407000
Personal spending +.4% in Oct
U of Mich Consumer sentiment 71.6% highest since June
ECRI Nov 19th -3.1%
New home sales fell 8.1%, ave price of a home fell 13.9% in August
11-30 Chicago PMI 62.5
Consumer confidence 54.1
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago

Noteable:
Texas jury convicted ex- republican house leader Tom Delay of illegally funneling 190000 of corp donations to Texas GOP candidates in 2002. He was once the most powerful Republican in Congress.
North Korea attacks South Korea
US carrier ordered to Korea for war games with S Korea on Sunday.
Deere beats but outlook weak
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term trend: ...11-16. market correction 11023
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : Market under pressure@ 11192 on 11-13 Market in Correction 11-17 11201

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .65
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS). 84
10 day average .78
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium . (OB .53/ OS 1.54) .72
Put Premium 10 day average .72
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.56
Williams %R 12 day -77.00( uptrend OB:-1.00, downtrend OS -99): Weekly -44.63
% Advisory Service Bulls 55.7 Bears 21.6  Bull/Bear ratio 2.57 Advisors bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 2 Weekly 6 (1 low, 10 max) -4
DJIA MACD 1.41  Falling/ Negative  cross 11-12 (second cross)
NYSE New Highs 80 New Lows 30
NASDAQ New Highs 80 New Lows 70
NYSE Advance-Decline -954 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -927
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +7873  NASDAQ +2053
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  66%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
Mikey power index on DJIA peaked on 9/22 at 88
MACD  First negative cross 10/19 MACD peaked on 10/14 @160.92
11-2 .52 Put/call reading
11-4 DJIA breaks out above 11258 April 26 high DJIA at 11200 resistance level
11-5 Indicators overbought all trends up
P/C and premium total a very low 1.09
MCD positive cross  market at new high MACD below 10-14 high possible divergence
Mikey OB/OS @ 87
Put Premiums .48
11-8 Extremely low put activity and premiums
11-11 Market is selling off Put premiums and P/C ratios NOT expanding meaning there is no concern about this sell off.
11-12 Market reverses 11258 breakout of 11-4
11-15 GLD reverses closes below 133.07
11-16 DJIA reverses closes below 11143 hits 50 day average
Muni market hits 52 week low inter day down 4.6% in last 4 sessions ..That was quick
11-17 Bounce off of sell signal
11-23 Dollar in uptrend
11-24 Sharp pre-Thanksgiving rally on low volume
11-30 Retesting 11-16 low just below 50 day average. MACD at zero line : Challenging intermediate term uptrend. Dollar at 200 day resistance
Conclusions: Challenging intermediate term uptrend.

Moving Averages

DJIA 5 day 11075 Falling/Price below
DJIA 20 day 11202 Falling/Price below
DJIA 50 day 11068  Rising/Price above
DJIA 200 day 10630 Rising/Price above

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
(Uptrend = +, Downtrend = -, Neutral = 0)

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 26, Emer Mkts 28 China 24, Brazil 31, Europe 21, Russia 27 Japan 38, Korea 43, India 45, Australia 24, Germany 24, Spain 31, UK31
Oil 37, Nat Gas 60, Gasoline 44 Gold 32, Copper 41,  Silver 57, Platinum 52, DBC 35,
USD 79, Aussie 18, Euro 28, Brit Pd 17, Yuan 46, Yen 33

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
(Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )

Homebuilders(XHB) 47, Basic Mat (XLB) 52, Energy (XLE) 57 Finance (XLF) 43, Tech (XLK) 44, Retail (XRT) 70, Health (XLV) 38, Airlines ($XAL) 58, Utilities (XLU) 36 ,Gold Miners (GDX) 54,
Real Estate (IYR) 46. Consumer Disc(XLY) 56, Consumer Staple(XLP) 42, Metals and Mining(XME) 58 

Bonds

MUB (Natl Muni) 42,  NCA(Ca Muni) 46
BND (Total Bond Index) 46, BWX (International Treas Bonds) 27,
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 51, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 47,
PFF (US preferred) 39, HYG (High Yield) 44

2X ETF Short (12 up, 6 Neutral, 0 down) Score 1192
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DXD 76, SDS 81, DZZ 72, ZSL 47, DUG 45  EEV 80, FXP 75, SMN 59, CMD 53, SKF 69, SRS 75 SZK 74, QID 80, SCO 71, RXD 54, TBT 50, SDP 57, REW 73
Legend:
DXD =UltraShort DJIA,.SDS= Ultra short S&P 500, DZZ= UltraShort Gold, ZSL =UltraShort Silver, DUG =UltraShort Oil index,EEV=UltraShort Emerg Mkts,FXP= Ultrashort China25, SMN=UltraShort Basic Mat, CMD= Ultrashort Commodities, SKF=UltraShort Financials, SRS=UltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShortltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShort Utilities REW=UltraShort Technology

2x Long ETF SCORE 530 (0 up 5 neutral 13  down)
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DDM 21 SSO 15, UGL 34 AGQ 53, DIG 55, EET 20 XPP 21, UYM 44, UCD 32, UYG 24, URE 16 UGE 18 QLD 20, UCO 33  RXL 21, UBT 53, UPW 30, ROM 21
Legend:
DDM =Ultra DJIA, SSO=Ultra S&P 500, UGL=Ultra Gold, AGQ=Ultra Silver, DIG=Ultra Oil index, EET=Ultra Emerging Mkts, XPP =Ultra China25, UYM Ultra Basic Mat, UCD=Ultra Commodities, UYG=Ultra Financials, URE=Ulta Real Estate, UGE=UltraConsumer Goods, QLD Ultra Nasdaq 100, UCO=Ultra Crude Oil, RXL=Ultra Healthcare, UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas, UPW=Ultra Utilities, ROM=Ultra Technology


Total Score (uptrend is positive) -662 Correction

The market is at a crossroads now. It is at the 50 day average and has corrected to this point with out any major concerns by the traders. The dollar index has made broken above the 50 day and is close to its 200 day. The experts say don't believe the rally in the dollar. They also say don't fear this market sell off. The whole story is wrapped around the Fed printing and supporting the economy. I think the real story is not in the US but overseas. The rest of the world will catch up to our recession. That story is not being told.

I visualize that the dollar rally will be presented in some kind of flight to safety. This will bury the Fed is printing story and leave the the public holding the get out of the dollar trade. The transition of this move may be happening now. I will continue to post trend changes and monitor the story in this blog.

Mikey

Dollar reversing Sept breakdown?

Holding at the 50 day

DJIA 11052.49 -39.51 SPX 1187.76 -1.64 NASDAQ 2525.22 -9.34
DJT 4896.24 +16.99 DJU 391.35 -1.29 IBD 100 286.00 -.89 VIX 21.53
US Gov rates: 6 mo .198%  2 yr .5039% 10 yr 2.81 -.06  yr 4.13 -.08
Gold 1366 +3.00  Silver 27.15 +.48 Copper 3.76 +.02 
Oil 85.73 +1.87  RBOB 2.22 +.06  Nat Gas 4.20 -.21 DBC 25.31 +.05
USD Index 80.90+.47  Aussie .9665 -.0006 EURO 1.307 -.00128
Pound 1.5491-.34 Yen 83.13 -.96
Days to option expiration 15 Day 5 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend down
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend correcting
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend down

Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend neutral
Real Estate: Bottoming no uptrend..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Economy:
11-24 Durable goods fell 3.3%
Jobless claims fell 34000 last week to 407000
Personal spending +.4% in Oct
U of Mich Consumer sentiment 71.6% highest since June
ECRI Nov 19th -3.1%
New home sales fell 8.1%, ave price of a home fell 13.9% in August

Noteable:
Texas jury convicted ex- republican house leader Tom Delay of illegally funneling 190000 of corp donations to Texas GOP candidates in 2002. He was once the most powerful Republican in Congress.
North Korea attacks South Korea
US carrier ordered to Korea for war games with S Korea on Sunday.
Deere beats but outlook weak

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term trend: ...11-16. market correction 11023
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : Market under pressure@ 11192 on 11-13 Market in Correction 11-17 11201

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .74
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .87
10 day average .75
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium . (OB .53/ OS 1.54) .72
Put Premium 10 day average .71
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.59
Williams %R 12 day -68.7.( uptrend OB:-1.00, downtrend OS -99): Weekly -40.5
% Advisory Service Bulls 55.7 Bears 21.6  Bull/Bear ratio 2.57 Advisors bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 3 Weekly 6 (1 low, 10 max) -3
DJIA MACD 13.21 Falling/ Negative  cross 11-12 (second cross)
NYSE New Highs 69 New Lows 26
NASDAQ New Highs 83 New Lows 49
NYSE Advance-Decline -463 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -264
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +8527  NASDAQ +2980
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  68%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
Mikey power index on DJIA peaked on 9/22 at 88
MACD  First negative cross 10/19 MACD peaked on 10/14 @160.92
11-2 .52 Put/call reading
11-4 DJIA breaks out above 11258 April 26 high DJIA at 11200 resistance level
11-5 Indicators overbought all trends up
P/C and premium total a very low 1.09
MCD positive cross  market at new high MACD below 10-14 high possible divergence
Mikey OB/OS @ 87
Put Premiums .48
11-8 Extremely low put activity and premiums
11-11 Market is selling off Put premiums and P/C ratios NOT expanding meaning there is no concern about this sell off.
11-12 Market reverses 11258 breakout of 11-4
11-15 GLD reverses closes below 133.07
11-16 DJIA reverses closes below 11143 hits 50 day average
Muni market hits 52 week low inter day down 4.6% in last 4 sessions ..That was quick
11-17 Bounce off of sell signal
11-23 Dollar in uptrend
11-24 Sharp pre-Thanksgiving rally on low volume
Conclusions: Still correcting an intermediate term uptrend.

Moving Averages

DJIA 5 day 11109 Falling/Price below
DJIA 20 day 11207 Falling/Price below
DJIA 50 day 11063  Rising/Price above
DJIA 200 day 10626 Rising/Price above

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
(Uptrend = +, Downtrend = -, Neutral = 0)

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 26, Emer Mkts 28 China 28, Brazil 24, Europe 21, Russia 27 Japan 43, Korea 38, India 39, Australia 24, Germany 27, Spain 30, UK 32
Oil 34, Nat Gas 56, Gasoline 48
Gold 32, Copper 34,  Silver 57, Platinum 51, DBC 41,
USD 78, Aussie 23, Euro 28, Brit Pd 17, Yuan 41, Yen 33

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
(Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )

Homebuilders(XHB) 46, Basic Mat (XLB) 51, Energy (XLE) 58 Finance (XLF) 46, Tech (XLK) 50, Retail (XRT) 69, Health (XLV) 42, Airlines ($XAL) 58, Utilities (XLU) 36 ,Gold Miners (GDX) 51,
Real Estate (IYR) 48. Consumer Disc(XLY) 57, Consumer Staple(XLP) 46, Metals and Mining(XME) 58 

Bonds

MUB (Natl Muni) 36,  NCA(Ca Muni) 30
BND (Total Bond Index) 47, BWX (International Treas Bonds) 21,
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 49, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 31,
PFF (US preferred) 43, HYG (High Yield) 43
2X ETF Short (12 up, 6 Neutral, 0 down) Score 1203
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DXD 75, SDS 81, DZZ 72, ZSL 48, DUG 45  EEV 78, FXP 72, SMN 60, CMD 52, SKF 69, SRS 75 SZK 69, QID 76, SCO 71, RXD 70, TBT 52, SDP 68, REW 70
Legend:
DXD =UltraShort DJIA,.SDS= Ultra short S&P 500, DZZ= UltraShort Gold, ZSL =UltraShort Silver, DUG =UltraShort Oil index,EEV=UltraShort Emerg Mkts,FXP= Ultrashort China25, SMN=UltraShort Basic Mat, CMD= Ultrashort Commodities, SKF=UltraShort Financials, SRS=UltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShortltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShort Utilities REW=UltraShort Technology

2x Long ETF SCORE 557 (0 up 5 neutral 13  down)
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DDM 21 SSO 15, UGL 34 AGQ 53, DIG 54, EET 21 XPP 24, UYM 41, UCD 38, UYG 24, URE 16 UGE 21 QLD 21, UCO 34  RXL 21, UBT 52, UPW 40, ROM 27
Legend:
DDM =Ultra DJIA, SSO=Ultra S&P 500, UGL=Ultra Gold, AGQ=Ultra Silver, DIG=Ultra Oil index, EET=Ultra Emerging Mkts, XPP =Ultra China25, UYM Ultra Basic Mat, UCD=Ultra Commodities, UYG=Ultra Financials, URE=Ulta Real Estate, UGE=UltraConsumer Goods, QLD Ultra Nasdaq 100, UCO=Ultra Crude Oil, RXL=Ultra Healthcare, UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas, UPW=Ultra Utilities, ROM=Ultra Technology


Total Score (uptrend is positive) -646 Correction

The DJIA broke the 50 day mid day but rallied back to close just under it. Power numbers stil very negative and sentiment still bullish.

Mikey

Here is the main line concensus opinion

Dollar's Rally on Euro Jitters Could Be Short-Lived: Pros

Fears over Europe's latest debt crisis may have triggered a higher dollar and a pullback in the stock market, but market pros don't see any long-term strength in the dollar or major threat to US stocks.

With the Federal Reserve flooding the market with money and the International Monetary Fund at the ready with a nearly $1 trillion bailout package, many remain convinced that the trend for the US currency remains lower.The weaker greenback has been considered pivotal in the Fed's strategy to kickstart the slumbering US economy by cheapening assets and lowering interest rates, thus triggering risk-taking.

"In the short run, who knows? Over the intermediate term, greed is going to take investors away from this crisis because I don't think it's a game-changer," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "This is more about market reaction than it is fundamentals in Europe."

Stocks lately seem to be in throwback mode and could stay that way through at least the end of this year.
The US market has declined more than 3.5 percent since fears have grown over European debt, primarily in Ireland—for now—but likely reverberating onto other euro zone economies including perhaps Spain. Stocks lost more than 1 percent Monday but rebounded later in the afternoon.

Simultaneously, the euro [EUR=X 1.3122 -0.0161 (-1.21%) ] has tumbled from its recent high of 1.414 against the dollar to near 1.31 on Monday, a fall of about 7 percent in less than four weeks. The move resembles a similar pattern to April, when fears over Greek debt defaults triggered a soft patch for the market that lasted through most of the summer.

While many market pros remain fairly sanguine about US stocks, there remains fear that the euro has a ways to fall yet. Hedge fund manager Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter investment guide, wrote that the euro is "in the process of breaking down" and likely will slide to 1.265-1.275 in the near term.
"These are tectonic plates shifting very, very slowly but doing so inexorably," he wrote. He echoed those comments in an interview on CNBC.
So if the dollar does continue to weaken, that could present some headwinds for stocks. At the same time, conventional wisdom would be that commodities would suffer, too. Yet Monday trading actually saw price increases for items such as gold [US@GC.1 1367.9 5.50 (+0.4%) ], oil [US@CL.1 85.6 1.84 (+2.2%) ] and silver. Dollar-denominated assets generally do well when the greenback is falling in value as that makes them cheaper to purchase with foreign currencies.

What to Watch for in EuropeDeficits Threaten MarketsAre Gains Done for Year?
The activity could be a sign that some commodities could be losing their sensitivity to dollar movements and trading more strongly on underlying fundamentals. "We are convinced, as we have been for months," Gartman wrote, "that the driving force behind gold's strength is not inflation nor dollar devaluation but the simple notion that gold has become the world's 3rd most popular 'reservable currency' and that it will soon move past that of the EUR into 2nd place."

But even if the European situation continues to roil markets, gold remains a solid safety investment, said Philip Silverman, managing partner at commodity trading advisor Kingsview Management in New York.
"A flight to safety would be having exposure to gold," Silverman said. "Now, commodities can get soft here based upon the strengthening of the dollar and economic activity. But we're finding that gold can be viewed a commodity and inflation hedge as well as a currency substitute."

Oil prices also are continuing to head higher, which Gartman sees as reflective of global uncertainty in the energy markets—most recently the damage done to relations with Mideast nations following another round of Wikileaks disclosures.

Conversely, Paulsen sees stock prices continuing to rise despite global turmoil such as the European debt situation. He said credit spreads and interest rates are well off the highs experienced in April, indicating that investors are not as nervous as they were when the crisis first broke.

"We're finishing up the second year of what is likely to be double-digit gains in the stock market and up 80 percent from the March 2009 lows," he said. "Yet the whole time it has been going up we've been worrying about one crisis after another. Has it done investors any good to focus on any of these crises, or has it been better to focus on underlying stability?"

Yet much of those gains have been underwritten by loose monetary policy that at some point will have to end to stave off the accompanying inflation from all that money printing.

Weak-dollar policies tend to prevail during economic downturns as a way to ignite an economy by cheapening its goods in world markets. But it is an ultimately unsustainable policy due to the threat of inflation and global trade wars. So at some point, whether it comes from a flight from the euro or fundamental economic strength, the market will have to show it can justify a stronger dollar.

"The government gifts of stimulus are driving the stock market. There's been an impression that if the economy stays weak the government will keep throwing money in," said Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors in Sacramento, Calif. "In the long term a strong stock market has to rely on the strong economy—getting people back to work, which means a stronger dollar. Eventually that's what's going to happen."

The message is simple.

1) Dollar will go lower
2) Gold is a sure thing
3) You need to be invested because you just missed an 80% rally off of the lows.

I disagree with all of these ideas but this is what the pros are saying. The big surprise is that China will slow way down. That will trump any printing that the Fed does. I am saying is that on a relative basis the US economy will be stronger than the Chinese economy and that will be the big surprise that flips this consensus upside down. The dollar rallies and the commodities and gold tank. In the meantime, the intermediate trend are going their way so I do not have a trend to stand on. The short term is going my direction but it is early.
Mikey

Korean distraction masks dollar rally, asset sell off

DJIA 11091.87 -95.41 SPX 1189.40 -8.95 NASDAQ 2534.56 -8.56
DJT 4879.25 -32.13 DJU 392.64 -2.61 IBD 100 286.89 -.38 VIX 22.22
US Gov rates: 6 mo .2081%  2 yr .516% 10 yr 2.87 -.04 yr 4.21 -.07
Gold 1363.50 -9.50 Silver 26.67 -.85 Copper 3.74
Oil 83.86 - RBOB 2.16 +.01   Nat Gas 4.41 +.02  DBC 25.03 -.11
USD Index 80.43 +.49 Aussie .9670 -0171 EURO 1.3170 -.0106
Pound 1.5526-.0166 Yen 84.09 +.73
Days to option expiration 16 Day 4 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend down
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend correcting
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend down

Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend neutral
Real Estate: Bottoming no uptrend..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Economy:
11-24 Durable goods fell 3.3%
Jobless claims fell 34000 last week to 407000
Personal spending +.4% in Oct
U of Mich Consumer sentiment 71.6% highest since June
ECRI Nov 19th -3.1%
New home sales fell 8.1%, ave price of a home fell 13.9% in August

Noteable:
Texas jury convicted ex- republican house leader Tom Delay of illegally funneling 190000 of corp donations to Texas GOP candidates in 2002. He was once the most powerful Republican in Congress.
North Korea attacks South Korea
US carrier ordered to Korea for war games with S Korea on Sunday.
Deere beats but outlook weak

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term trend: ...11-16. market correction 11023
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : Market under pressure@ 11192 on 11-13 Market in Correction 11-17 11201

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .71
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .47
10 day average .74
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium . (OB .53/ OS 1.54) .72
Put Premium 10 day average .68
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.19
Williams %R 12 day -70.83.( uptrend OB:-1.00, downtrend OS -99): Weekly -32.13
% Advisory Service Bulls 55.7 Bears 21.6  Bull/Bear ratio 2.57 Advisors bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 3 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max) -4
DJIA MACD 23.08 Falling/ Negative  cross 11-12 (second cross)
NYSE New Highs 71 New Lows 16
NASDAQ New Highs 112 New Lows 36
NYSE Advance-Decline -1012 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -679
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +8990  NASDAQ +3244
NYSE % above 200 day ave: %

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
Mikey power index on DJIA peaked on 9/22 at 88
MACD  First negative cross 10/19 MACD peaked on 10/14 @160.92
11-2 .52 Put/call reading
11-4 DJIA breaks out above 11258 April 26 high DJIA at 11200 resistance level
11-5 Indicators overbought all trends up
P/C and premium total a very low 1.09
MCD positive cross  market at new high MACD below 10-14 high possible divergence
Mikey OB/OS @ 87
Put Premiums .48
11-8 Extremely low put activity and premiums
11-11 Market is selling off Put premiums and P/C ratios NOT expanding meaning there is no concern about this sell off.
11-12 Market reverses 11258 breakout of 11-4
11-15 GLD reverses closes below 133.07
11-16 DJIA reverses closes below 11143 hits 50 day average
Muni market hits 52 week low inter day down 4.6% in last 4 sessions ..That was quick
11-17 Bounce off of sell signal
11-23 Dollar in uptrend
11-24 Sharp pre-Thanksgiving rally on low volume
Conclusions: Still correcting an intermediate term uptrend.

Moving Averages

DJIA 5 day 11139 Falling/Price below
DJIA 20 day 11211 Flat/Price below
DJIA 50 day 11054  Rising/Price above
DJIA 200 day 10621 Rising/Price above

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
(Uptrend = +, Downtrend = -, Neutral = 0)

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 33, Emer Mkts 27 China 23, Brazil 24, Europe 24, Russia 34 Japan 24, Korea 39, India 42, Australia 24, Germany 37, Spain 29, UK 30
Oil 36, Nat Gas 72, Gasoline 45
Gold 34, Copper 37,  Silver 58, Platinum 53, DBC 43,
USD 78, Aussie 23, Euro 28, Brit Pd 16, Yuan 35, Yen 32

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
(Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )

Homebuilders(XHB) 34, Basic Mat (XLB) 45, Energy (XLE) 60 Finance (XLF) 28, Tech (XLK) 35, Retail (XRT) 63, Health (XLV) 21, Airlines ($XAL) 61, Utilities (XLU) 22 ,Gold Miners (GDX) 41,
Real Estate (IYR) 34. Consumer Disc(XLY) 52, Consumer Staple(XLP) 19, Metals and Mining(XME) 54 

Bonds

MUB (Natl Muni) 39,  NCA(Ca Muni) 29
BND (Total Bond Index) 41, BWX (International Treas Bonds) 21,
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 43, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 26,
PFF (US preferred) 44, HYG (High Yield) 34

2X ETF Short (9 up, 9 Neutral, 0 down) Score 1152
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DXD 68, SDS75, DZZ 69, ZSL 48, DUG 40, EEV 72, FXP 75, SMN 53, CMD 54, SKF 59, SRS 69 SZK 59, QID 75, SCO 71, RXD 69, TBT 58, SDP 62, REW 68

Legend:
DXD =UltraShort DJIA,.SDS= Ultra short S&P 500, DZZ= UltraShort Gold, ZSL =UltraShort Silver, DUG =UltraShort Oil index,EEV=UltraShort Emerg Mkts,FXP= Ultrashort China25, SMN=UltraShort Basic Mat, CMD= Ultrashort Commodities, SKF=UltraShort Financials, SRS=UltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShortltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShort Utilities REW=UltraShort Technology

2x Long ETF SCORE 600 (1 up 4 neutral 13  down)
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DDM 27 SSO 21, UGL 36 AGQ 53, DIG 63, EET 26 XPP 23, UYM 47, UCD 42, UYG 26, URE 24 UGE 23 QLD 21, UCO 33  RXL 21, UBT 42, UPW 39 ROM 33

Legend:
DDM =Ultra DJIA, SSO=Ultra S&P 500, UGL=Ultra Gold, AGQ=Ultra Silver, DIG=Ultra Oil index, EET=Ultra Emerging Mkts, XPP =Ultra China25, UYM Ultra Basic Mat, UCD=Ultra Commodities, UYG=Ultra Financials, URE=Ulta Real Estate, UGE=UltraConsumer Goods, QLD Ultra Nasdaq 100, UCO=Ultra Crude Oil, RXL=Ultra Healthcare, UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas, UPW=Ultra Utilities, ROM=Ultra Technology


Total Score (uptrend is positive) -552 Correction

War in Korea? What a great way mask the dollar rally. I'll bet no one even knows the dollar is in rally mode now. The news back drop is about the Fed printing remember? Gold was down 10 bucks today. The Gold bulls will never sell this move not with the Fed printing and a possible war in Korea. The truth is that on a relative basis the emerging countries and China are falling faster than that of the US now. That is the reason that the dollar is going up. This is not a concept that anyone will buy now. That makes it a perfect time for a dollar rally. In the meantime, the world economy is going to be in a lot of trouble.

Trends: Correction The daily MACD had a second negative cross on 11-12. The second cross usually signals a correction. The MACD is still above the zero line at 23.08 but could cross zero next week. The intermediate trend will still be in place as long as the MACD is above zero. The Mikey total score for double ETF's is a very negative -552. The daily Williams indicator, the Mikey daily thrust indicator and the Mikey power numbers are all saying we are in a correction. This holds true for all world stock markets all world currencies except the dollar, which is in an uptrend.

You will note that I am tracking the Yuan now and it is in a corrective move now. It appears that trading is becoming more active in this currency now. In the commodities, the power numbers say that gold, copper, and oil are in a correction. The commodity index (DBC) is close to a sell signal and could do so next week. Natural gas is the only commodity in a rally phase. Natural gas seems to tag along with the dollar.

Sentiment: Bullish The advisers are 2.57 to 1 bullish, the Put call ratio is a mild 74 with a .47 registered on Friday. The 10 day Put/call premium is a lowish .68 and is holding around .72  for this sell off. The Mikey O/B index is an almost overbought 72.

Summary: Correction continues The world markets, world currencies, and commodities are in a corrective phase. The dollar and Natural gas are in a rally phase. This corrective behavior has not changed the intermediate trends on either. The sentiment of the advisers and the traders during this correction is bullish. There does not seem to be any concern about this correction.

Mikey

Stocks rise on errr good economic news

DJIA 11187.28 +150.97 SPX 1198.35 +17.62 NASDAQ 2543.12 +48.17
DJT 4911.38 +132.38 DJU 395.25 +1.50 IBD 100 287.27 +6.15 VIX 19.56
US Gov rates: 6 mo .2019%  2 yr .5390% 10 yr 2.91 +.12 30 yr 4.28 +.09
Gold 1373 -4.30 Silver 27.52 -.04 Copper 3.74 -.05
Oil 83.86 +2.36 RBOB 2.15 +.06  Nat Gas 4.39 +.13
USD Index 79.94 +.15 DBC 25.14 +.46
Aussie ..977 -.0042 EURO 1.331 -.0016 Pound 1.576 -.0014 Yen 83.46 -.08
Days  to option expiration 17 Day 3 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up correcting
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up correcting
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend down

Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up correcting
Real Estate: Bottoming no uptrend..... Current trend neutral, weakening

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral, weakening
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend up..slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Economy:
11-24 Durable goods fell 3.3%
Jobless claims fell 34000 last week to 407000
Personal spending +.4% in Oct
U of Mich Consumer sentiment 71.6% highest since June
ECRI Nov 19th -3.1%
New home sales fell 8.1%, ave price of a home fell 13.9% in August

Noteable:
Texas jury covected ex- republican house leader Tom Delay of illegally funneling 190000 of corp donations to Texas GOP candidates in 2002. He was once the most powerful Republican in Congress.
US carrier orders to Korea for war games with S Korea on Sunday.
Deere beats but outlook weak

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term trend: ...11-16. market correction 11023
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : Market under pressure@ 11192 on 11-13 Market in Correction 11-17 11201

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index(80 OB 20 OS) .82
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .71
10 day average .77
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium . (OB .53/ OS 1.54) .72
Put Premium 10 day average .67
Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.43
Williams %R 12 day -52.69.( uptrend OB:-1.00, downtrend OS -99): Weekly -23.53
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.2 Bears 20.2  Bear/Bull ratio .35   Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 4 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) -4
DJIA MACD 31.40  Falling/ Negative  cross 11-12 (second cross)
NYSE New Highs 147 New Lows 10
NASDAQ New Highs 185 New Lows 41
NYSE Advance-Decline +1980 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +1533
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +10002  NASDAQ +3923
NYSE % above 200 day ave: 70%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
Mikey power index on DJIA peaked on 9/22 at 88
MACD  First negative cross 10/19 MACD peaked on 10/14 @160.92
11-2 .52 Put/call reading
11-4 DJIA breaks out above 11258 April 26 high DJIA at 11200 resistance level
11-5 Indicators overbought all trends up
P/C and premium total a very low 1.09
MCD positive cross  market at new high MACD below 10-14 high possible divergence
Mikey OB/OS @ 87
Put Premiums .48
11-8 Extremely low put activity and premiums
11-11 Market is selling off Put premiums and P/C ratios NOT expanding meaning there is no concern about this sell off.
11-12 Market reverses 11258 breakout of 11-4
11-15 GLD reverses closes below 133.07
11-16 DJIA reverses closes below 11143 hits 50 day average
Muni market hits 52 week low interday down 4.6% in last 4 sessions ..That was quick
11-17 Bounce off of sell signal
11-23 Dollar in uptrend
11-24 Sharp pre-Thanksgiving rally on low volume
Conclusions: Still correcting an intermediate term uptrend.

Moving Averages

DJIA 5 day 11157 Rising/Price sbove
DJIA 20 day 11212 Flat/Price below
DJIA 50 day 11044  Rising/Price above
DJIA 200 day 10616 Rising/Price above

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
 (Uptrend Above 60, Sell below 40)
 (Uptrend = +, Downtrend = -, Neutral = 0)

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 39, Emer Mkts 35 China 43, Brazil 31, Europe 28, Russia 42,
Japan 44, Korea 41, India 51, Austrailia 31, Germany 41, Spain 46, UK 41
Oil 39, Nat Gas 65, Gasoline 49
Gold 40, Copper 44, , Silver 61, Platinum 54, DBC 46,
USD 62, Aussie 27, Euro 37, Brit Pd 23, Yuan 41, Yen 38

US Industry Groups (relative strength)  (Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )

Homebuilders(XHB) 49, Basic Mat (XLB) 54, Energy (XLE) 62 Finance (XLF) 46, Tech (XLK) 55, Retail (XRT) 74, Health (XLV) 48, Airlines ($XAL) 64, Utilities (XLU) 41 ,Gold Miners (GDX) 55, Real Estate (IYR) 49. Consumer Disc(XLY) 62, Consumer Staple(XLP) 51, Metals and Mining(XME) 60 

Bonds

MUB (Natl Muni) 34,  NCA(Ca Muni) 51
BND (Total Bond Index) 38, BWX (International Treas Bonds) 33,
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 40, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 39,
PFF (US preferred) 44, HYG (High Yield) 37
Double ETF's

2X Short ETF Score  1052 (11 up  6 neutral  1 down) Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DXD 59, SDS 69, DZZ 61, ZSL 42, DUG 34, EEV 67, FXP 68, SMN 49, CMD 51, SKF 60, SRS 65 SZK 48, QID 69, SCO 65, RXD 66, TBT 62, SDP 54, REW 63

Legend:
DXD =UltraShort DJIA,.SDS= Ultra short S&P 500, DZZ= UltraShort Gold, ZSL =UltraShort Silver, DUG =UltraShort Oil index,EEV=UltraShort Emerg Mkts,FXP= Ultrashort China25, SMN=UltraShort Basic Mat, CMD= Ultrashort Commodities, SKF=UltraShort Financials, SRS=UltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShortltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShort Utilities REW=UltraShort Technology

2x Long ETF SCORE 687 (1 up 5 neutral 12 down) Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DDM 35 SSO 26, UGL 44 AGQ 57, DIG 67, EET 30 XPP 30, UYM 51, UCD 51, UYG 32, URE 31 UGE 24 QLD 29, UCO 35  RXL 31, UBT 32, UPW 44 ROM 38

Legend:
DDM =Ultra DJIA, SSO=Ultra S&P 500, UGL=Ultra Gold, AGQ=Ultra Silver, DIG=Ultra
Oil index, EET=Ultra Emerging Mkts, XPP =Ultra China25, UYM Ultra Basic Mat, UCD=Ultra Commodities, UYG=Ultra Financials, URE=Ulta Real Estate, UGE=UltraConsumer Goods, QLD UltaNasdaq 100, UCO=Ultra Crude Oil, RXL=Ultra Healthcare, UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas, UPW=Ultra Utilities, ROM=Ultra Technology


Total Score (uptrend is positive) -365 Correction

New orders for U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly fell in October to post their largest decline in nearly two years and business capital spending plans dropped, according to the Commerce Department that pointed to a slowdown in factory activity.

Consumer spending rose for a fourth straight month in October and a key inflation gauge was at a record low, according to the Commerce Department, strengthening the Fed's defense of its decision to loosen monetary policy further.

And consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since June on tentative signs of improved job conditions and early discounts from retailers.

Consumers increased spending in October while jobless claims hit a 2 year low. New claims for unemployment dropped by 34000 last week to 407000 the lowest level since July 2008. You remember July of 2008 don't you. That was when they told us that we were not going into a recession. The dollar was bottoming and the commodities, oil, and gold market were peaking.

The U of Mich consumer sentiment index came in at 71.6 the highest since June. The Fed lowered its 2011 growth forecast to 3 - 3.6 %. Durable goods fell 3.3% in October excluding transportation they fell 2.7%. Demand for non defense fell 4.5%. New home sales fell 8.1% in October to an annual rate of 283000 just above Augusts record low of 275000. Sept median price fell 13.9% from August to 193000.

You add all of this up and you can see why the consumer is as happy as a clam. He is ecstatic that his house only fell 14%, but he got to keep it.  He got to keep his job one more month, and if he bought a big ticket item it is going to be cheaper. Last month he busted out the credit cards and increased his spending. Now that is good news for the economy.
Mikey

North Korea gives Ben a boost

DJIA 11036.37 -142.21 SPX 1180.73 -17.11 NASDAQ 2494.95 -37.07
DJT 4779 +78.79 DJU 393.75 -4.66 IBD 100 281.12 -4.53 VIX 20.63
US Gov rates: 6 mo .193%  2 yr .4646 % 10 yr 2.796 -.01 30 yr 4.19 -.02
Gold 1377.60 +19.80 Silver 27.56 +.30 Copper 3.79 +.03
Oil 81.26 -.48 RBOB 2..09 -.01 Nat Gas 4.26 -.02
USD Index 79.75 +1.13 DBC 24.65 -.09
Aussie .9751 -.0165 EURO 1.3323 -.0248 Pound 1.5696 -.0192
Days  to option expiration 19 Day 2 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up correcting
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up correcting
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend down

Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up correcting
Real Estate: Bottoming no uptrend..... Current trend neutral, weakening

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral, weakening
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend up..slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term trend: ...11-16. market correction 11023
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : Market under pressure@ 11192 on 11-13 Market in Correction 11-17 11201

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index(80 OB 20 OS) .77
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .88
10 day average .75
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium . (OB .53/ OS 1.54) .72
Put Premium 10 day average .65
Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.60
Williams %R 12 day -86.70 .( uptrend OB:-1.00, downtrend OS -99): Weekly -36.70
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.2 Bears 20.2  Bear/Bull ratio .35   Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 1 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max) -6
DJIA MACD 32.05  Falling/ Negative  cross 11-12 (second cross)
NYSE New Highs 39 New Lows 31
NASDAQ New Highs 57 New Lows 59
NYSE Advance-Decline -1685 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1332
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +8122  NASDAQ +2390
NYSE % above 200 day ave: 66%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
Mikey power index on DJIA peaked on 9/22 at 88
MACD  First negative cross 10/19 MACD peaked on 10/14 @160.92
11-2 .52 Put/call reading
11-4 DJIA breaks out above 11258 April 26 high DJIA at 11200 resistance level
11-5 Indicators overbought all trends up
P/C and premium total a very low 1.09
MCD positive cross  market at new high MACD below 10-14 high possible divergence
Mikey OB/OS @ 87
Put Premiums .48
11-8 Extremely low put activity and premiums
11-11 Market is selling off Put premiums and P/C ratios NOT expanding meaning there is no concern about this sell off.
11-12 Market reverses 11258 breakout of 11-4
11-15 GLD reverses closes below 133.07
11-16 DJIA reverses closes below 11143 hits 50 day average
Muni market hits 52 week low interday down 4.6% in last 4 sessions ..That was quick
11-17 Bounce off of sell signal
11-23 Dollar in uptrend

Moving Averages

DJIA 5 day 11122 Falling/Price sbove
DJIA 20 day 11209 Falling/Price below
DJIA 50 day 11032  Rising/Price at
DJIA 200 day 10311 Rising/Price above

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
 (Uptrend Above 60, Sell below 40)
 (Uptrend = +, Downtrend = -, Neutral = 0)

Currencies, Commodities, World markets

DJIA  41, Emer Mkts 38 China 34, Brazil 27, Europe 29
Oil 41, Nat Gas 60, Gasoline 48
Gold 36, Copper 38, , Silver 59, Platinum 42,
DBC 50, USD 53, Aussie 27, Euro 46, Brit Pd 31
Note: Nat Gas verge of emerging, China, Brazil Emerging Markets correcting, Commodities verge of breaking

US Industry Groups (relative strength)  (Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )

Homebuilders(XHB) 40, Basic Mat (XLB) 48, Energy (XLE) 56 Finance (XLF) 40, Tech (XLK) 47, Retail (XRT) 70, Health (XLV) 42, Airlines ($XAL) 54, Utilities (XLU) 36 ,Gold Miners (GDX) 55, Real Estate (IYR) 41. Consumer Disc(XLY) 54, Consumer Staple(XLP) 46, Metals and Mining(XME) 57 

Bonds

MUB (Natl Muni) 35,  NCA(Ca Muni) 27
BND (Total Bond Index) 52, BWX (International Treas Bonds) 36,
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 35, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 36,
PFF (US preferred) 49, HYG (High Yield) 43

Double ETF's

2X Short ETF Score  1057 (11 up  6 neutral  1 down) Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DXD 65, SDS 65, DZZ 65, ZSL 45, DUG 30, EEV 64, FXP 67, SMN 55, CMD 49, SKF 56, SRS 66 SZK 49, QID 68, SCO 64, RXD 68, TBT 65, SDP 55, REW 63

Legend:
DXD =UltraShort DJIA,.SDS= Ultra short S&P 500, DZZ= UltraShort Gold, ZSL =UltraShort Silver, DUG =UltraShort Oil index,EEV=UltraShort Emerg Mkts,FXP= Ultrashort China25, SMN=UltraShort Basic Mat, CMD= Ultrashort Commodities, SKF=UltraShort Financials, SRS=UltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShortltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShort Utilities REW=UltraShort Technology

2x Long ETF SCORE 668 (1 up 5 neutral 12 down) Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DDM 34 SSO 29, UGL 41 AGQ 56, DIG 70, EET 30 XPP 32, UYM 46, UCD 49, UYG 34, URE 27 UGE 22 QLD 32, UCO 34  RXL 26, UBT 26, UPW 42 ROM 38

Legend:
DDM =Ultra DJIA, SSO=Ultra S&P 500, UGL=Ultra Gold, AGQ=Ultra Silver, DIG=Ultra
Oil index, EET=Ultra Emerging Mkts, XPP =Ultra China25, UYM Ultra Basic Mat, UCD=Ultra Commodities, UYG=Ultra Financials, URE=Ulta Real Estate, UGE=UltraConsumer Goods, QLD UltaNasdaq 100, UCO=Ultra Crude Oil, RXL=Ultra Healthcare, UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas, UPW=Ultra Utilities, ROM=Ultra Technology


Total Score (uptrend is positive) -389 Correction

The dollar emerged into an uptrend in a flight to safety brought on by one of Ben's closest friends...North Korea. All of this right after the G-20 meetings that failed to make an agreement on Ben's dollar bashing ways. Let's see Ben won't budge but the dollar goes up. This is a perfect senario for a great dollar rally.  
Now what about Israel and Iran, Ben?

Mikey

China and Brazil Emerging Markets correcting..Dollar strengthening

DJIA 11178.58 -24.97 S & P 500 1197.84 -1.89 NASDAQ 2532.02 +13.90
DJT 4857.79 -5.65  DJU 398.41 +.41 IBD 100 285.65 +4.77 VIX 18.37
US Gov rates: 6 mo .183%  2 yr .4602 % 10 yr 2.81 -.07  30 yr 4.21 -.04
Gold 1357.80 +4.80 Silver 27.26 +.43  Copper 3.76 -.07
Oil 81.74 -.68 RBOB 2.10 -.01 Nat Gas 4.28 +.11
USD Index 78.62 +.15 Aussie ..9916 +.0032 EURO 1.3571 +..13 Pound 1.5878 -.0030
Days  to option expiration 20 Day 1 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up correcting
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up correcting
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up

Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up correcting
Real Estate: Bottoming no uptrend..... Current trend neutral, weakening

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend down correcting
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral, weakening
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up correcting
World economy: Current trend up..slowing
World politcal environment: Tensions increasing

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term trend: ...11-16. market correction 11023
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : Market under pressure@ 11192 on 11-13 Market in Correction 11-17 11201

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index(80 OB 20 OS) .87
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .76
10 day average .75
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium . (OB .53/ OS 1.54) .72
Put Premium 10 day average .62
Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.47
Williams %R 12 day -57.97.( uptrend OB:-1.00, downtrend OS -99): Weekly -24.48
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.2 Bears 20.2  Bear/Bull ratio .35   Bullish
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 4 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) -4
DJIA MACD 53.0  Falling/ Negative  cross 11-12 (second cross)
NYSE New Highs 16 New Lows 19
NASDAQ New Highs 12 New Lows 48
NYSE Advance-Decline +67 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +33
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +9807  NASDAQ +3722
NYSE % above 200 day ave: 64%

Support: 1130 S & P, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 S & P; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
Mikey power index on DJIA peaked on 9/22 at 88
MACD  First negative cross 10/19 MACD peaked on 10/14 @160.92
11-2 .52 Put/call reading
11-4 DJIA breaks out above 11258 April 26 high DJIA at 11200 resistance level
11-5 Indicators overbought all trends up
P/C and premium total a very low 1.09
MCD positive cross  market at new high MACD below 10-14 high possible divergence
Mikey OB/OS @ 87
Put Premiums .48
11-8 Extremely low put activity and premiums
11-11 Market is selling off Put premiums and P/C ratios NOT expanding meaning there is no concern about this sell off.
11-12 Market reverses 11258 breakout of 11-4
11-15 GLD reverses closes below 133.07
11-16 DJIA reverses closes below 11143 hits 50 day average
Muni market hits 52 week low interday down 4.6% in last 4 sessions ..That was quick
11-17 Bounce off of sell signal

Moving Averages

DJIA 5 day 11118 Falling/Price sbove
DJIA 20 day 11215 Flat/Price below
DJIA 50 day 11021  Rising/Price above
DJIA 200 day 10606 Rising/Price above

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
 (Uptrend Above 60, Sell below 40)
 (Uptrend = +, Downtrend = -, Neutral = 0)

Currencies, Commodities, World markets

DJIA  46, Emer Mkts 43 China 38, Brazil 34, Europe 34
Oil 45, Nat Gas 54, Gasoline 54
Gold 35, Copper 42, , Silver 62, Platinum 46,
USD 46,  Aussie 33  Euro 51  Brit Pd 36
Notes: Nat Gas verge of emerging, China, Brazil Emerging Markets correcting,

US Industry Groups (relative strength)  (Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )

Homebuilders(XHB) 44, Basic Mat (XLB) 55, Energy (XLE) 66 Finance (XLF) 45, Tech (XLK) 55, Retail (XRT) 69, Health (XLV) 50, Airlines ($XAL) 63, Utilities (XLU) 45 ,Gold Miners (GDX) 57, Real Estate (IYR) 44. Consumer Disc(XLY) 64, Consumer Staple(XLP) 55, Metals and Mining(XME) 62  

Bonds

MUB (Natl Muni) 34,  NCA(Ca Muni) 47
BND (Total Bond Index) 52, BWX (International Treas Bonds) 45,
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 34, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 35,
PFF (US preferred) 51, HYG (High Yield) 50

Double ETF's

2X Short ETF Score  1009 (6 up  10 neutral  2 down) Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DXD 58, SDS 60, DZZ 65, ZSL 42, DUG 26, EEV 59, FXP 59, SMN 51, CMD 61, SKF 50, SRS 66 SZK 48, QID 62, SCO 59, RXD 67, TBT 66, SDP 51, REW 59

Legend:
DXD =UltraShort DJIA,.SDS= Ultra short S&P 500, DZZ= UltraShort Gold, ZSL =UltraShort Silver, DUG =UltraShort Oil index,EEV=UltraShort Emerg Mkts,FXP= Ultrashort China25, SMN=UltraShort Basic Mat, CMD= Ultrashort Commodities, SKF=UltraShort Financials, SRS=UltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShort Utilities REW=UltraShort Technology

2x Long ETF SCORE 734 (2 up 4 neutral 12 down) Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

DDM 34 SSO 34, UGL 38 AGQ 60, DIG 76, EET 35 XPP 36, UYM 52, UCD 57, UYG 38, URE 31 UGE 23 QLD 38, UCO 38  RXL 33, UBT 24, UPW 46 ROM 45

Legend:
DDM =Ultra DJIA, SSO=Ultra S&P 500, UGL=Ultra Gold, AGQ=Ultra Silver, DIG=Ultra
Oil index, EET=Ultra Emerging Mkts, XPP =Ultra China25, UYM Ultra Basic Mat, UCD=Ultra Commodities, UYG=Ultra Financials, URE=Ulta Real Estate, UGE=UltraConsumer Goods, QLD UltaNasdaq 100, UCO=Ultra Crude Oil, RXL=Ultra Healthcare, UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas, UPW=Ultra Utilities, ROM=Ultra Technology


Total Score (uptrend is positive) -375 Correction

The US is hurting and in the middle of this Ben is trying to pump enough money in to keep it going. This is going on while the rest of the world is getting nailed with inflation. The central banks in Asia are raising rates and taxes designed to stop money from flowing into their countries. The real estate situation is similar to the US in 2005. This will not only stop inflation but kill their economies. The action in recent weeks in the emerging markets, I believe, is reflecting this.

My technical numbers now reflect this. These numbers show that the dollar is strengthen and the emerging markets are weakening, The rest of the world is now going through what the US did in 2006. The hot money has been spent and now there is a price to be paid. On a relative basis then what should happen is that the economies in the rest of the world will be falling faster than the US, this causes the dollar to straighten which it is doing now. Every investment strategy in force today is based on a weaker dollar. There will be alot of unwinding to do if the dollar picks up steam.


Mikey