Merry Christmas

DJIA 11573.49 +14.00 SPX 1256.77 -2.07 NASDAQ 2665.60 -5.88
IBD 294.01 -.77 DJT 5078.92 -19.90 DJU 405.73 +.33 VIX 16.47
US Gov rates: 6 mo .183%  2 yr .6595% 10 yr 3.38 30yr 4.47 +.02 
Gold 1380.40 -6.10  Silver 29.31 -.06 Copper 4.26 -.01 Platinum 1723 -7.90   
Oil 92.16 +1.66 RBOB 2.44 +.03 Nat Gas 4.08 -.07
Aussie 1.0078 +.0044 EURO 1.3067 +.0020 Pound 1.5354 +.0054
USD Index 81.06 - DBC 27.01 +.13
Days to option expiration 20 Day 2 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-20 New home sales edge up to a very low 300,000, existing home sales 4.65 mil rate
Case Schuller (20 city index) Sept housing index show home prices fell .8%  a new low


Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
South Korea artillery driis ..no respone from the north

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .98 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).88
10 day average .59
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .56
Put Premium 10 day average .57
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.44
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.16
Williams %R 12 day -2.41  Weekly -.70
% Advisory Service Bulls 58.8 Bears 20.6  Bull/Bear ratio 2.85
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 20,-0
DJIA MACD 105.40 Rising / Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 150 New Lows 11 
NASDAQ New Highs 127 New Lows 12
NYSE Advance-Decline -107 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -305
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +13507 NASDAQ 7277
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  75%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46..bounced off of 50 day
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
New highs in DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ.on low volume, confirmed by A/D line non confirm by NH
12-21 New high in all indexes on low volume,  confirmed by A/D line not confirmed by NH
Gold bouncing just above 50 day average
12-23 Sentiment indicators one sided. extremely overbought. Puts are extremly cheap
Mikey O/B O/S is at 98. 10 ave Put/call .57 10 day ave Put/call premuim .87
DJI New high unconfirmed by NH

Moving Averages

5 day 11527 Rising/Price above 
20 day 11376 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11257 Rising/Price above
200 day 10715 Rising/Price above
20 week 10944 Rising/Price above
50 week 10642 Rising/Price above
90 week 10057 Rising/Price above
200 week 10918 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 88 Emer Mkts 58 China 31, Brazil 40 Europe 62 Russia 75 
Japan 51, Korea 75, India 56, Australia 61  Germany 32, Spain 40, UK 77
Oil 68, Nat Gas 32, Gasoline 62,
Gold 50, Copper 69,  Silver 51, Platinum 63
USD 81.07, Aussie 70, Euro 44, Brit Pd 44, Yuan 46, Yen 55
Grains 61, DBC 72


Merry Christmas!!!!
Mikey