Ebenezer Scrooge continues Corporate welfare rally ..Tiny Tim's parents are still "underemployed"

DJIA 11533.16  +55.03 SPX  1254.60 +7.52 NASDAQ 2667.81 +18.05
IBD 293.09 +.83 DJT 5095.13 +53.06 DJU 403.43 -.32 VIX 16.49
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1957%  2 yr .618% 10 yr 3.33 +.03 30yr 4.43 -
Gold 1388.80 +1.70  Silver 29.39 +.04 Copper 4.28 +.07 Platinum 1723
Oil 89.82 +.45 RBOB 2.41 +.09 Nat Gas 4.06 -.18
Aussie .9989 -.0025 EURO 1.3055 -.0018 Pound 1.5375 -0047
USD Index 81.06 +.09 DBC 28.66 +.17
Days to option expiration 20 Day 2 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up

US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009
12-20 New home sales edge up to a very low 300,000, existing home sales 4.65 mil rate
Case Schuller (20 city index) Sept housing index show home prices fell .8%  a new low


Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.
12-20 State deficits and decling Federal money to hurt economy
South Korea artillery driis ..no respone from the north

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-21 Market in confirmed uptrend 11478

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .94 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).47
10 day average .60
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .61
Put Premium 10 day average 57
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.08
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.17
Williams %R 12 day -21.43 , Weekly -5.06
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 8 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 18,-2
DJIA MACD 92.50 Falling / Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 256 New Lows 40 
NASDAQ New Highs 210 New Lows 24
NYSE Advance-Decline +1133 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +798
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +12939 NASDAQ +7445
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  73%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
New highs in DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ

Moving Averages

5 day 11480 Rising/Price above 
20 day 11312 Flat/ Price above 
50 day 11227 Rising/Price above
200 day 10700 Rising/Price above
20 week 10944 Rising/Price above
50 week 10642 Rising/Price above
90 week 10057 Rising/Price above
200 week 10918 Falling/Price above

World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 89 Emer Mkts 60 China 35, Brazil 44 Europe 62 Russia 77 
Japan 60, Korea 77, India 62, Australia 64  Germany 36, Spain 46, UK 83
Oil 65, Nat Gas 38, Gasoline 53,
Gold 55, Copper 70,  Silver 52, Platinum 71
USD 54, Aussie 61, Euro 58, Brit Pd 40, Yuan 39, Yen 52
Grains 53, DBC 68

Ebenezer Scrooge (Ben Bernanke & the US administration and Congress) have kept the rally alive by giving to the rich and passing out the crumbs to the poor. The 600 billion QE2 and extension of unemployment benefits have kept this "recovery" going. The recovery is alive and well for corporate America. The averages hit new recovery highs again today.

Year end forecasts all say that market will rise between 20 to 25% next year. Employment still has not budged and all they are going to do is extend what they did this year. That includes extending the Bush tax cuts and extending unemployment. They are also going to cut withholding but that is just a tax deferral that will all come due in 2012. This is at the expense of an exploding US deficit which does not seem to matter.

In the meantime, Tiny Tim will have to eat the crumbs that fall from the corporate table. Such is the state of the US economy at the end of 2010 This game of corporate welfare is keeping  poor Tiny Tim's parents out of work. They are seeing their house fall in value, interest rates rising and are having to scrounge for the extra cost of a lump of coal as commodity price rise.  Meanwhile, Corporations feast of the bloated government deficit as Tim's parents get what the cash rich corporations will pay.
Consider the following:

Fed Has Aided Stocks, Not Rates or Jobs: CNBC Survey


The Federal Reserve’s policy to purchase $600 billion of bonds in a program widely known as QE2 has been mostly ineffective at lowering interest rates and will do little to improve the unemployment rate, according to the exclusive CNBC Fed Survey in December.

The survey of 76 economists, bond and stock traders, and analysts, found 63 percent saying the Fed’s program has been ineffective at lowering interest rates. A similar percentage believes the program will not help lower the unemployment rate.“I see QE2 as mainly pushing on a string,” wrote Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo [WFC 31.1725 0.3525 (+1.14%) ] Advisors. But respondents to the survey say the Fed program has played an important part in raising stock and commodity prices. In fact, nearly three-quarters of the group say the Fed’s bond purchase program has helped raise stock prices, while 63 percent see it as a reason why commodity prices are higher.

As a result, some see QE2 as a success for pushing up inflation expectations and the stock market. “Those that say the asset-purchase program is a failure are too narrowly focused on the yield on the 10-year Treasury note,’’ wrote Tony Crescenzi, senior vice-president, strategist, portfolio manager of Pimco.
“A substantial effect of the asset-purchase program is that it has led investors to believe that short-term rates will be kept low for an extended extended period. This compels investors to take risk, buoying risk assets,” said Crescenzi.


Mikey