Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, December 17, 2010

DJIA 11491.91 -7.34 SPX  1243.91 +1.04  NASDAQ 2642.97 +5.66
IBD 292.26 +1.23 DJT 5051.32 -35.98 DJU 401.66 +1.15 VIX 16.11
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1776%  2 yr .609% 10 yr 3.34 -.14 30yr 4.44 -.12
Gold 1376 +5.00  Silver 29.22 +.45 Copper 4.17 +.06 -Platinum 1697.30 -1.20
Oil 88.21 -.41 RBOB2.32 +.01 Nat Gas 4.06 -.16
Aussie .9906 -.0003 EURO 1.3132 -.0056 Pound 1.5462 -.0086
USD Index 80.73 +.18 CRB Futures 320.62 +3.28 
Days to option expiration 1 Day 19 of December Expiration 12-17

Long Term Opinions:

Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up stalled
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend up stalled
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up stalled
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down
US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current trend up
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated
Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Economy:
Case/Schiller home price index fell .8% in Sept Prices +.6% from 1 year ago
12-2 jobless claims rose 26000 to 436000 presented as a positive
November same store sales rose 5.3% vs a year ago presented as a positive for a nice Xmas for retailers
12-3 Non-farm payrolls rose 39000 in November a 10 month low. Jobless rate at 9.8%
Goods producers trimmed 15000 jobs Builders cut 5000 workers. Retailers cut 28000, government cut 14000. Service firms added 65000
Underemployment rate was 17%
ISM service sector rose .7% to 55
Analysts stuck to their view that the economy is recovering at a modest pace.
Proposed by Obama: 2 Yr extension of Bush tax cuts, Div and payroll tax remain at 15%, 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, 2% cut in payroll taxes for 1 year, 1 yr cut in SS taxes, estates taxes 35% with 5 million exemption. Estimated cost: 450 to 600 bil over 2 years
12-10 Trade deficit fell 13.2% in Oct to 38.7 bil
12-13 Retail Sales +.8% in Nov x Autos +1.2%
Autos fell .8% Building Materials fell .1%
Producer Prices +.8% core +.35 Gasoline +4.7%
Business inventories +.7% to 1.42 trillion highest since Feb 2009

Noteable:
China PMI at a 7 month high
Iran and N. Korea defiant on Nukes
China to be aggressive on monetary controls
Treasury to sell all of its shares (2.4 billion) in CITI at public offering
Goldman Sacs forecasts 25% gain for stocks next year.,1650 for Gold, advises shorting the dollar
China increased bank reserves for 3rd time in a month to 18.5%
China trade deficit with US fell 8.3%
China inflation expected to be 5.1%
Nasdaq rose for 8th day in a row to new highs
12- 17 Tax cuts extended. Tea party defeats appropriation spending bill.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 .11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
IBD : 12-15 Market under pressure 11458

Short Term Trading Indicators


Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .96 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).73
10 day average .64
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium . (extremes .60/ 1.54) .64
Put Premium 10 day average .60
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.37
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.24
Williams %R 12 day -10.3, Weekly -2.44
% Advisory Service Bulls 56.8 Bears 20.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.77
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 18,-1
DJIA MACD 96.11 Rising/ Positive  cross 12-3
NYSE New Highs 181 New Lows 22 
NASDAQ New Highs 210 New Lows 31
NYSE Advance-Decline +343 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +139
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE +11858   NASDAQ +6757
NYSE % above 200 day ave:  69%

Support: 1130 SPX, 10720 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1220 SPX; 11200 DJIA
IBD 100 index Breakout  9/2 242.87

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs non confirm new high in DJIA,
options expire

Moving Averages

5 day 11470 Rising/Price above 
20 day 11299 Flat/ Price above 
50 day 11217Rising/Price above
200 day 10696 Rising/Price above
20 week 10903 Rising/Price above
50 week 10625 Rising/Price above
90 week 10019 Rising/Price above
200 week 10924 Falling/Price above


World Markets, Commodities, Currencies

DJIA 81 Emer Mkts 65 China 47, Brazil 53 Europe 57 Russia 76 
Japan 63, Korea 67, India 78, Australia 62  Germany 25, Spain 55, UK 72
Oil 66, Nat Gas 33, Gasoline 55,
Gold 61, Copper 72,  Silver 58, Platinum 68
USD 56, Aussie 54, Euro 62, Brit Pd 37, Yuan 52, Yen 46
Grains 52, DBC 66

US Industry Groups (relative strength)
(Uptrend , Downtrend , Neutral )
 12 up, 7 Neutral, Downtrend 0 Score +12
Homebuilders(XHB) 61 Basic Mat (XLB) 66, Energy (XLE) 63 Finance (XLF) 60, Tech (XLK) 61, Retail (XRT) 64 Health (XLV) 60, . Consumer Disc(XLY) 60, Consumer Staple (XLP) 63, Metals and Mining(XME) 65, IYT (Transports) 63, ITA (Aerospace) 62, SEA (Shipping) 40, PKB ( Building and Construction) 49, Airlines ($XAL) 42, Gold Miners (GDX) 49 Real Estate IYR) 46, Transports ($DJT) 44,  Utilities (XLU) 53 

Bonds (Relative Strength)
 (0 up, 7 down, 2 neutral) Score -7
MUB (Natl Muni) 43 NCA(Ca Muni) 40 
BND (Total Bond Index) 39 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 39, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 25
TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 43, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 38, PFF (US preferred) 37, HYG (High Yield) 50,

2X ETF  Short Score 720
(1 up, 7 Neutral, 10 down) Score -6
DXD 34, SDS 32, DZZ 51, ZSL 36, DUG 32  EEV 48, FXP 60, SMN 32, CMD 37, SKF 39, SRS 54 SZK 26, QID 35, SCO 40, RXD 32 TBT 55, SDP 42, REW 35
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

Legend:
DXD =UltraShort DJIA,.SDS= Ultra short S&P 500, DZZ= UltraShort Gold, ZSL =UltraShort Silver, DUG =UltraShort Oil index,EEV=UltraShort Emerg Mkts,FXP= Ultrashort China25, SMN=UltraShort Basic Mat, CMD= Ultrashort Commodities, SKF=UltraShort Financials, SRS=UltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShortltraShortSZK=UltraShort Consumer Goods, QID =UltraShort NASDAQ 100, SCO=Ultrashort oil, RXD=UltraShort Health Index,TBT=UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries, SDP=UltraShort Utilities REW=UltraShort Technology

2x Long ETF SCORE 1049 
(10 up 6 neutral 1  down) Score +10

DDM 66 SSO 67, UGL 46 AGQ 57, DIG 67 ,EET 49 XPP 38, UYM 66 UCD 60, UYG 58, URE 46 UGE 77 QLD 65, UCO 60  RXL 69, ROM 62 UBT 43 UPW 53
Green=up, Red= down, Black = neutral

Legend:
DDM =Ultra DJIA, SSO=Ultra S&P 500, UGL=Ultra Gold, AGQ=Ultra Silver, DIG=Ultra Oil index, EET=Ultra Emerging Mkts, XPP =Ultra China25, UYM Ultra Basic Mat, UCD=Ultra Commodities, UYG=Ultra Financials, URE=Ulta Real Estate, UGE=UltraConsumer Goods, QLD Ultra Nasdaq 100, UCO=Ultra Crude Oil, RXL=Ultra Healthcare, UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas, UPW=Ultra Utilities, ROM=Ultra Technology


Total Score (uptrend is positive) +329 uptrend
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)