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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Jobs Data Tomorrow..I Can Hardly wait!!

DJIA 10674.98 -5.45 VIX 22.10 -.11 year 2.9204 +.0175 30year 4.0618 +.0087 Gold 1199.20 Oil 82.01 -.46 USD 80.90 -.045
Days to option expiration 11

Economic Conditions: Negative -10.7

Mikey OB/OS index High 97 Low 0 (80=OB 20=OS)---72

Mikey Confidence Index (Traders: confident = 100) 57

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
BUY >60 SELL<50 Short <40

Stocks 51 Oil 74 Gold 36 Bonds 47 Emerging Mkts 68
USD 47 Aussie 66 Euro 59 Brit Pd 65

Short ETF SCORE 617
DXD 53 DZZ 57 ZSL 40 DUG 33 EDZ 32 SMN 35 SKF 40 SRS 42 SZK 46
QID 43 SCO 29 RXD 74 TBT 55 SDP 38

Long ETF SCORE 796
DDM 46 UGL 37 AGQ 55 DIG 60 EDC 73 UYM 70 UYG 63 URE 62 UGE 70 QLD 57 UCO 74 RXL 48 UBT 35 UPW 46

Many Retailers Post Weak July Sales, Short of Estimates

With few exceptions, retailers reported weak sales for the month of July, as consumers continue to rein in spending amid an uncertain employment outlook and continuing fears that the economic recovery is slowing. "The consumer has definitely taken a more cautious stance and retailers need to keep their inventories sharp in order to manage these prices and changes," said Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, in an interview on CNBC.

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, government data showed on Thursday, underscoring a weak labor market and the fragile economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 479,000 in the week ended July 31, the Labor Department said. That was the highest level in claims since early April.

The scarcity of jobs is putting a strain on the economy's fragile recovery from its longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Growth slowed to a 2.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter after expanding at a 3.7 percent pace in the first three months of this year.

Other data on Thursday showed several U.S. retailers posted July sales below analysts' expectations in the latest sign that skittishness about high unemployment and the economy in general are causing consumers to cut spending.

So far seven of the 11 retailers that reported sales have missed analysts' forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data. In the week ended July 24, a total of 4.54 million people were still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, down 34,000 from the prior week. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast so-called continuing claims slipping to 4.54 million.

The number of people on emergency benefits increased 60,993 to 3.31 million in the week ended July 17.

Tomorrow is the Jobs report and it is two weeks before options expiration. I wonder what is up their sneaky little sleeves?
Mikey
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