Jobs Data weak

DJIA 10653.56 -21.42 VIX 21.74 -.36 10year 2.8183 -.0846 30year 3.994 -.0591 Gold 1205.30 Oil 80.70 -1.31 USD 80.37 -.44
Days to option expiration 11

Economic Conditions: Negative -10.7

Mikey OB/OS index High 97 Low 0 (80=OB 20=OS)---73

Mikey Confidence Index (Traders: confident = 100) 70

Mikey Power Index (MPI)
BUY >60 SELL<50 Short <40

Stocks 50 Oil 67 Gold 34 Bonds 49 Emerging Mkts 65
USD 45 Aussie 74 Euro 56 Brit Pd 59

Short ETF SCORE 563
DXD 53 DZZ 57 ZSL 40 DUG 33 EDZ 32 SMN 35 SKF 40 SRS 42 SZK 46
QID 43 SCO 29 RXD 74 TBT 55 SDP 38

Long ETF SCORE 809
DDM 46 UGL 37 AGQ 55 DIG 60 EDC 73 UYM 70 UYG 63 URE 62 UGE 70 QLD 57 UCO 74 RXL 48 UBT 35 UPW 46

Power Index +246

Non-farm payrolls fell 131,000, while private employment, considered a better gauge of labor market health, rose 71,000 after increasing 31,000 in June. Analysts had expected a much better report, with overall employment falling 65,000 and private-sector hiring increasing 90,000.

The jobless rate held steady at 9.5 percent, defying expectations for a slight increase, but that was only because thousands more people dropped out of the labor force.

Companies cut back on temporary hires, a segment normally considered a harbinger of future hiring. Government jobs dried up much faster than anticipated and not just because it saw the end of short-term census jobs.

Temporary jobs dropped by 5,600, reversing a streak of strong gains that economists had viewed as a hopeful sign that hiring would pick up.

Normally, companies load up on temps at the beginning of a recovery when they are waiting for confirmation that growth is gaining momentum. This recovery has been unusual in that temporary hiring did not herald a jump in private hiring.

Private hiring totaled a lackluster 71,000 in July, below expectations for 90,000 in a Reuters poll. June's tally was revised down to just 31,000 from an initially reported 83,000.

Government hiring was another worrisome sign. The loss of 202,000 positions reflected the loss of 143,000 temporary Census jobs.

The total also included 38,000 jobs lost in local government. For most municipalities, the fiscal year began on July 1, and government associations have been warning that huge budget gaps would force aggressive job and spending cuts. July's report suggests local governments got a quick start.

There were a few positive signs buried among the bad news. The average work week edged up to 34.2 hours from 34.1, suggesting companies were squeezing more out of existing workers and may soon need more. Earnings also rose slightly, adding to consumers' spending power.

The jobless recovery continues. This reminds me late 2007 when everyone believed the Fed could navigate us into a soft landing in the face of a credit collapse. Well guess what the indicators are all down there is no jobs growth. Credit has not been repaired to the average guy and no one sees a recession coming. Through it all they tell us the recession is not coming and the stock market parties.

Maybe next week Apple will report great sales of their IPad and the market will rally 200 points because some "expert" on CNBC and in Investors Daily will say that there has never been a recession with great IPAD sales. That may happen but it still does not change what is happening to the economy and the average guy out there.

Notes: APPL 258.25 is right on the 50 day for the 4th time in the last 2 weeks.The stock is still below the high of 265 hit on its earnings day. The 20 week average is at 249.50 and the 200 day is at 227. I keep expecting the stock to be at 227 every day I wake up in the morning. A close below 258 would be a start. A close below 249.50 would do the trick. What would happen then is that 60 analysts would all recommend the stock as being cheap.

Mikey