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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Saturday, July 24, 2010

TW3 Stock Market Parties as the Economy sinks

DJIA 10424.62 +102.32 VIX 23.51 -1.12 10 year 2.9871 +.04 30 year 4.0081 +.056 Gold 1184.80 -11.20 Oil 79.02 -.28 USD 82.66 -.122
Mikey OB/OS index (80=OB 20=OS) 66
Trends:
STOCKS:
ST: UP---IT: Neutral--- LT: Down--- Currency Flow: 69 Positive
MACD Positive no divergence
Fundamentals Negative -10 Falling

Gold ST:Down---IT: Up--- LT: Up--- Money Flow: 29
Oil ST:UP---IT:DOWN--- LT:DOWN:--- Money Flow: 68
Summary:Short term rally in a bear market on bad fundamentals. Market is mildly overbought. Gold is showing an outflow of money and is in a short term downtrend. Oil is a lay over to the market.


This week the stock market celebrated earnings and outlook. Just about every report contained better than expected earnings and a rosy outlook. Buried in all of this merriment was the economic news that continues to deteriorate. Chairman Ben downgraded his assessment of the economy at capital hill but said if things get worse we will keep money cheap and stop paying banks interest on money held at the Fed.

Ben said that even though the economy is "fragile" he does not see a double dip. I feel alot better now because Ben was there to "save us" for the first dip. He said that employment will take longer to recovery than expected. Congress agreed because they passed a bill extending benefits for the long term unemployed who were not receiving benefits.

Ben says that businesses are not hiring because they are hoarding cash. That is part of the problem in the jobs market. It appears that when the meltdown occurred they cut benefits and jobs and after this recovery started they decided that they could make more money without hiring anyone back. Jobs being scare with the workers that remained just increased productivity. That means working longer hours for less pay and benefits. That may explain why earnings are so good and the economy is bad.

The banks who pushed subprime loans down the public's throat are still receiving free money from the FED and benefits, spelled TARP, from the treasury. The treasury is still helping the banks in their time of need. That is good because we need the banks to continue to give the economy the loans it needs to keep this "recovery" going. You know the corporate recovery. The government reported that the projected deficit for the year will be 1.5 trillion. Where is the money going? That's right look at the earnings reports.

This week Congress passed the biggest financial legislation since the Great Depression, They seemed to be real proud of that and said the crooks will never be able to take advantage of the people again. Goldman Sac, one of the crooks, then settled over the phone for 500 million. That will teach them a lesson. It will take those guys a month to earn that back. No indictments were handed down and no one was named or took responsibility for anything that happen, however.

I have an idea maybe we could make 500 million from Chase. They bought Bears Sterns and Bear Sterns was knee deep in the derivatives markets. They had 14 trillion of those critters. How about looking at Bank of America they bought Merrill Lynch they were players in the scam too. What ever happened to the mess created by Lehman. Their trading operations were bought by Barkley's. Lets get 500 million from them.

Most importantly of all is not to pass meaningless laws that have no teeth to them. We need to lock up the people who continually abuse the system. This behaviors happens because they never punish anyone. The US treasury has been robbed. Now they are stealing by adding debt.

Goldman Sacs is an example of this. This group is the system manipulator. It is ruthless and will do anything for money. It is in bed with the government. Their CEO's become the Secretary of the treasury. They and the government are out of control and have no fear of punishment because they run the government. It is time to try something different. What they are doing does not work. Look at the national debt.

This week the congress passed an extension to the unemployment bill. This amounted to 33 billion dollars. There was much debate over this and it took weeks to pass. Hey, 20% of the country is out of work and Goldman reports paying compensation of 9.3billion dollars for the Quarter to a few select people and they debate over giving 300 bucks a week to guys who want a job.

Here are the crooks:

The US Treasury Department's pay czar Kenneth Feinberg called out 17 companies who took money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program and then handed out $1.6 billion in "ill-advised payments" to employees during the height of the financial crisis, reports CNBC's Mary Thompson on the Fast Money Halftime Report.

These payments were troubling, Feinberg said, because they were "way too excessive" where in a five-month window, some earned $10 million or more. Many times, the payments lacked "any kind of principle" and weren't performance-based. Most, he said, were severance packages for individuals "walking out the door."

Feinberg is not asking that the companies repay the money that was handed out during the financial crisis, reports Thompson. He is, however, requesting that they voluntarily adopt a "brake provision" that would allow companies to break pay contracts during future financial crises. When asked by Thompson if adopting such a policy would put businesses at a competitive disadvantage, Feinberg said no.

Feinberg listed these 17 companies as those, who handed out the lavish payments:

American International Group [AIG 36.77 0.28 (+0.77%) ]
American Express [AXP 44.79 1.60 (+3.7%) ]
Bank of America [BAC 13.74 0.08 (+0.59%) ]
Bank of New York Mellon [BK 25.82 0.12 (+0.47%) ]
Boston Private Financial Holdings [BPFH 7.03 0.18 (+2.63%) ]
Capital One Financial [COF 40.84 -1.24 (-2.95%) ]
CIT Group [CIT 37.76 0.56 (+1.51%) ]
Citigroup [C 4.02 -0.07 (-1.71%) ]
Goldman Sachs [GS 147.38 0.83 (+0.57%) ]
JPMorgan Chase [JPM 39.83 0.48 (+1.22%) ]
M&T Bank [MTB 89.56 2.88 (+3.32%) ]
Morgan Stanley [MS 26.89 0.10 (+0.37%) ]
PNC Financial Service Group [PNC 61.02 1.24 (+2.07%) ]
Regions Financial [RF 6.65 0.05 (+0.76%) ]
SunTrust Banks [STI 25.04 0.46 (+1.87%) ]
US Bancorp [USB 23.70 0.04 (+0.17%) ]
Wells Fargo [WFC 27.42 0.03 (+0.11%) ]


NOTICE HE IS NOT ASKING THEM TO PAY IT BACK BUT HE WANT TO PASS A LAW SO THEY WILL NEVER DO IT AGAIN. He is, however, requesting that they voluntarily adopt a "brake provision" that would allow companies to break pay contracts during future financial crises. Allow? What the hell does that mean. It means that we have a nice loop hole for you the next time you do it. The rub is that he is only talking about stealing the money that the government gave them after they created the problem. How greedy can you get. What about the mess they created.

Does this sound familiar? How about investigating them for how their banks were run. Then throwing them in jail. What they don't tell you is the most of these guys bought their stock at the lows of the crash and made a killing as the "recovery" came. That recovery was financed with money from the treasury. We are not investigating them we have a pay Czar that tells them that they did not do a nice thing and please don't do it again because if you do you may not be able to keep all of the money. Nice!!!

Well it has been going on for years and they are just blatant about it now. They have no shame because they have the media to cover it up. This will continue until it can continue no more. The volatility it creates just makes them more money and eats away at the core of the system.

This administration is just the same as the last one. It has been bought by the very money interests that created the problem. It may look different sadly it is the same. The beat goes on.

Mikey

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