Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, June 28, 2010

My Two Favorite Shorts AAPL and Gold

My two favorite shorts are Gold and Apple. I'll be darn that they have two articles on these today that say they are both going to go parabolic. What a surprise.
Here are the articles.


On Monday investors were chattering about the upside in gold [GCC1 1238.2 -17.6001 (-1.4%) ] even though the precious metal has already surged 12% over the past 6 months.

The bullish speculation was largely triggered by the outcome of this past weekend’s G20 summit, in which world the leaders fell back on the "Sinatra doctrine" – that is, leaving each nation to do it "my way".

That’s a pithy way of saying each nation plans to adopt different and tailored policies in dealing with the European debt crisis; and not take a unified approach.


Instant Insights from the Fast Money desk

In the wake of these developments widely followed commodities investor Dennis Gartman tells the Fast Money desk gold could make a sharp move higher - in fact it could be parabolic.

”I hesitate talking about parabolic moves – but when you compare this period to other periods of time in the past (when we’ve had parabolic moves), that’s what well may happen,” he says during a live interview.

Parabolic moves in commodities tend to fall into patterns, Gartman goes on to explain.

“The market starts slowly and takes several years to build.

Then, in the last 10% of the time frame you get 50% of the price movement. I've seen it time after time in 35 years of doing this. And I get the sense that gold is about to do that same thing."

Gartman also feels that gold has room to run because it's something he calls the anti trade. “It’s anti dollar, anti euro and anti the British pound,” he says.

And if you're worried that we're looking at a bubble because retail investors are driving the run in gold, don't be. According to Gartman it's largely institutional money and not money from Main Street.

What’s the bottom line?

"The propensity for people at the margin to move into gold continues," says Gartman. "The trend is up and I continue to be bullish of gold."



---------

APPLE DRIVES TECH GAINS

The bulls spent Monday fighting early weakness in the market by pushing technology shares [XLK 21.542 0.067 (+0.31%) ] higher.

Blockbuster sales of Apple’s [AAPL 268.141 1.441 (+0.54%) ] latest gadget – the iPhone 4 -- ignited enthusiasm across the sector. 1.7 million units were sold over the first 3 days the device was available to customers. Chip stocks [SMH 27.49 0.32 (+1.18%) ] traded higher broadly on the phone’s success.


If we were not in this market environment I think Apple shares would already be north of $300, says Jon Najarian. I believe its Apple’s strength that’s driving tech.

But with those kinds of sales and the best product launch in Apple history, the stock should be higher, muses Brian Kelly. I think investors should separate Apple from tech, broadly.



I can only say that to have Dennis Gartman on the other side of my trade is a comfort. I love that this article appears when Gold is down 17 bucks. Remember the other article telling us to buy the seasonal pullback? Nice.

Apple has been all over the news lately announcing great sales of the IPAD and the new I PHONE yet the stock is slowly selling off. Just like Gold the news is great.

Charts look amazingly similar don't they?

Gold 1240.80 -15.40


AAPL 268


I expect both to be at their Feb lows real soon.

Mikey

No comments: