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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, February 5, 2010

DJIA Slimes through 10000 on "Good Jobs Numbers"

DJIA 9941 -56 SPX 1056 -6.32 Russell 2000 585.94 -3.74 VIX 27.06 +.98 Gold 1051 -11.8 Silver14.80 -.54 Oil 70.68 -2.46 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.873 -.07 Dollar Index 80.60 +.53 EURO 1.3618 -.0122 TLT(Long Term Gov Bonds 92.15 +.37 IEF (7-10Yr Gov Bonds)90.87 +.33 XLK (Tech)20.88 +.02 XLE(Oil Index)53.25 -.98 XLF (Financials Index)13.67 -.10 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.85 -.33 EEM (Emerging Markets)36.52 -1.10 FXI (China Index)36.98 -1.04 GDX (Gold Miners Index)40.39 +.18 XLB (Basic Materials Index) 29.90 -.02


U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell in January, but the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to a five-month low, according to a government report Friday that hinted at labor market improvement.

The Labor Department said the economy shed 20,000 jobs after losing 150,000 jobs in December. November was revised to a gain of 64,000, up from 4,000. Annual benchmark revisions to payrolls data showed the economy has purged 8.4 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls gaining 5,000 and the unemployment rate to edge up to 10.1 percent in January from 10 percent. Median estimates from the top 20 forecasters expected payrolls to be unchanged last month.

"It shows net-net that we are seeing a slow improvement in the labor market. There are some encouraging signs in the report ... but it wasn't quite good enough to push us into positive territory just yet," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX Research at GFT Forex in New York.

Stocks opened lower, while Treasury debt edged higher. U.S. dollar trimmed gains against the yen.

The White House said the report contains encouraging signs of gradual "labor market healing."

"Even as today's numbers contain signs of the beginning of recovery, they are also a reminder of how far we still have to go to return the economy to robust health and full employment," said White House economic adviser Christina Romer.

While a sharp increase in the number of people giving up looking for work helped to depress the jobless rate, some details of the employment report were encouraging. The number of "discouraged job seekers" rose to 1.1 million in January from 734,000 a year ago.

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In other words, the the drop in the unemployment was caused by "discouraged job seekers" leaving the workforce. They are spotlighting the 9.7% number and saying it is an improvement. That dog won't hunt. The market is doing a slime, just like the jobs report, through 10000. The commodities are also breaking down and Gold is at 1049 and silver 14.76 slowly setting in the sunset. The emerging markets EEM are at 200 day average now. FXI is below 200 and DJIA to follow 200 day at 9427.



Added to GLL shorted JWN 33.80 Covered GDX 40.39 buying TYP 11.16

Notes GDX +.02 today as Gold breaks down. Stocks lead gold now the miners buyers will have a reason to sell. I am covering here. Probably way early
Techs look ready to crack when they are ready to bottom this sell off techs will break. TYP 11.16 3X short techs looks good now.
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