Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, January 8, 2010

Jobs Decline in December...Yikes!!!..Send me a check!

DJIA 10591 -16 SPX 1140 -.93 VIX 18.53 -.53 Gold 1128 -5.00 Silver 18.42 +8.70 Oil 82.21 -.45 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)2.13 -.002 Dollar Index 78.03 -.07 EURO 1.4325 unch (Long Term Gov Bonds 89.04 -.28 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)88.91 +.06 XLK (Tech)22.93 +.05 XLE (Oil Index)60.02 +.11 (XLF Financials Index)15.15 -.11 XHB (Homebuilders Index)16.17 +.02 EEM (Emerging Markets)42.92 +.13 FXI (China Index)43.74 -.13 GDX (Gold Miners Index)49.38 +.28



Jobs declined in December what a bummer. But hey the recovery is still in place...it's only jobs. The Fed has all that free money out there and the recovery is just fine thank you.

Has the Fed sent you that zero % loan that they give the banks? Write the Fed and tell them that if they sent you some free money that you will invest it or spend it. If you are an employer tell them that you will hire some people. Wait, I forgot jobs don't matter. Well just tell them you are going to go to Best Buy and buy a TV or to Ford and buy a truck. Tell them you will spend the money faster than the banks are doing it.

Tell them that then the economy can grow for real and not grow by some bogus made up number created by a federal agencies. Tell them you would even pay back the loans that you have that are choking the (real) economy. You would take that vacation you can't have this year. You would send a little extra money to the state to help them stay solvent.

Yeah, that's the ticket send us the check and not to the corporations and banks. I know damn well that is going to work. We don't need any economic gurus we just need a check in the mailbox. Just like the banks get.

We have a great recovery going on now but whose recovery is it? Tell them you want to be included in the economy too. We will call this the Mikey economic plan. Call today and tell them we want the Mikey economic plan. That's the one where everyone gets a piece of the pie.
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Job-Creation Hopes Dashed; 85,000 Shed in December

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 85,000 jobs in December, government data showed on Friday, cooling optimism on the labor market's recovery and keeping pressure on President Barack Obama.


The Labor Department said November payrolls were revised to show the economy actually added 4,000 jobs rather than losing 11,000 as initially reported. With revisions to October, however, the economy lost 1,000 more jobs than previously estimated over the two months.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 10 percent in December. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm payrolls to be unchanged last month and the unemployment rate to edge up to 10.1 percent.

"The American economy is clearly not going to burst out of the gate with growth and job creation but it will perform better than its major competitors in Europe and Japan," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions in Ridgewood, N.J.

U.S. stock futures turned negative on the data, while government bond prices erased losses. The U.S. dollar fell against the euro.

High unemployment is one of the toughest domestic challenges facing Obama. The administration's success in getting people back to work will shape prospects for Obama's political future.



Obama's popularity has steadily fallen, knocking his approval ratings down to around 50 percent. This could dim the election prospects for his Democratic Party in the November congressional elections. Obama is scheduled to make a statement on the economy at 2:40 p.m.

Unemployment remains the Achilles heel of the economic recovery, which started in the third quarter of 2009 following the worst recession in 70 years. Creating jobs is critical to sustaining the economic recovery when government stimulus fades.

For the whole of 2009, the economy shed 4.2 million jobs, the department said.

Still the job market continued to show broad improvements last month, with a number of sectors showing gains.

Professional and business services added 50,000 positions, while education and health services increased payrolls by 35,000. Temporary help employment rose by 47,000.


Manufacturing payrolls fell 27,000 after dropping 35,000 in November. The construction sector lost 53,000 jobs, while the service-providing sector shed only 4,000 workers.

The average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours, while average hourly earnings increased by $18.80 from $18.77 in November.

The state of the job market is among the key factors that will determine the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase since cutting benchmark overnight borrowing costs to near zero percent in December 2008.

The U.S. central bank has vowed to keep rates low for an extended period, and the jobs data supported that expectation.

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This is not a good number!!!!!!!! No matter how they spin it or what the market does in the near term. I have moved my sell signal to 10450. I will short weakness below this number

As I mentioned yesterday it looks like the Dollar is ready for a pullback here. I am off of my Gold short and dollar long positions. I am looking to short Gold again below the 1080 mark. I think this rally in Gold will excite the Gold bugs who will take this rally as here we go again. I want to short when this rally fails.



Mikey

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