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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Consumer Confidence beats expectations...or how did you feel in 1983

DJIA 10557 +10.53 SPX 1126.74 -1.04 VIX 19.94 +.01 Gold 1097 -9.60 Silver 17.44 -.098Oil 78.66 -.11 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)2.01 -.005 Dollar Index 78.17 +.155 EURO 1.4355 -.0025 TLT (Long Term Gov Bonds)89.23 -.22 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)88.63 -.17 XLK (Tech)23.02 -.06 XLE(Oil Index)57.40 -.51 (XLF Financials Index)14.46 -.02 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.24 -.11 EEM (Emerging Markets)41.18 -.16 FXI (China Index)41.94 -.24 GDX (Gold Miners Index)46.50 -.37


In the convoluted world of economic statistic manipulation, headlines can be misleading. To wit, I present you the following article on consumer oonfidence.

Consumer Confidence Hits 3-Month High in December

Published: Tuesday, 29 Dec 2009 | 11:01 AM By: Reuters

U.S. consumer confidence improved more than expected in December, hitting a three-month high as job market pessimism eased and consumers' expectations reached a two-year high, according to a private report released on Tuesday.

Consumer confidence rose to 52.9 in December.

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 52.9 in December from a revised 50.6 in November.

That beat analysts' forecast of 52.5, which was based on a Reuters poll that ranged from 46.0 to 57.0. Meanwhile, last month's revised reading was also higher than the originally reported 49.5.

The expectations index rose to 75.6 — the highest since December 2007 — from November's 70.3. Consumers' labor market assessment also showed some signs of improvement, with the "jobs hard to get" index decreasing to 48.6 from 49.2.

Despite the progress, however, the report reflected an economy that remained sluggish as it struggles to recover from the worst recession in decades.

Consumers rated their present situation the worst since February 1983, with that index falling to 18.8 from 21.2. The "jobs plentiful" index also fell, dropping to 2.9 — also its lowest since February 1983 — from 3.1.

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The best reading since 2007 but their present situation is the worst since 1983?

They use the word progress. Progress is not measured by tangible gains but by mood swings brought on by economic brainwashing. They report that the expectations index rose to 75.6 — the highest since December 2007. The what? The expectations index is about as phony as it gets. But hey it is the highest since 2007. GIVE ME A BREAK!

Who can put a number on the EXPECTATIONS INDEX and tell the public that things are looking up. The conference board that's who. Who the hell is the Conference Board and who did they contact and how are their numbers arrived at? Who funds the Conference Board? That is all that is left. That and made up corporate earnings reports and phony government stats on the economy.

The Conference Board is the economic equvalent to the National Board of Realtors. You know the guys that told us that housing was OK in 2006. The experts are they for us at every turn telling us it ok.

Oh by the way,

Consumers rated their present situation the worst since February 1983, with that index falling to 18.8 from 21.2. The "jobs plentiful" index also fell, dropping to 2.9 — also its lowest since February 1983 — from 3.1.

If you just read the headlines you may get the wrong idea. The market has not flashed sell yet but I will post it when it does.

Mikey
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