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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, November 30, 2009

Dubai not backed by the state...What if Oil tanks????

Dubai World Debt Gets No State Guarantee: Official

The Dubai government disclaimed responsibility for the debts of Dubai World on Monday, dealing a blow to creditors' assumptions that the Arab emirate would guarantee the conglomerate's liabilities.

"Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies," said Abdulrahman al-Saleh, director general of Dubai's department of finance. "They think Dubai World is part of the government, which is not correct."

United Arab Emirates stocks plunged on Monday as investors waited for clarity on Dubai's request for a delay until May 2010 on repaying billions of dollars in debt issued by Dubai World and its Nakheel unit, developer of three distinctive palm-shaped islands in the emirate.

Saleh's remarks in an Arabic-language interview to Dubai TV, a station owned by the ruler of Dubai, came after UAE markets closed.

"They have confirmed there is going to be a restructuring and are doing what they can to differentiate between the government and companies," said Mohieddine Kronfol, managing director at Algebra Capital.

"It doesn't take away from the fact that you have a major potential event that is unravelling. People's expectations aren't going to be met with this announcement." Pledges of financial support have come from the UAE's central bank, helping to steady global markets.

The central bank promised additional liquidity to local banks and an official in Dubai's oil-exporting neighbour Abu Dhabi said on Sunday it would offer selective support to Dubai firms.

But Michael Ganske, head of emerging market research at Commerzbank in London, said a default, which could ultimately benefit the region, "is becoming more likely." "At the end of the day it should be positive for Dubai, Dubai's sovereign risk should go down," he said. SAY WHAT!!!!!!!!
Dubai World — which had $59 billion of liabilities as of August — shocked investors last week with news of the standstill request while it restructures, along with its property developer Nakheel.

The agreement would affect about $5.7 billion of debt due to mature before the end of May.

Nakheel earlier on Monday asked for three of its Islamic bonds, worth a total of $5.25 billion, to be suspended on Nasdaq Dubai until it was in a position to "fully inform the market."

Standalone Entity

Saleh made clear on Monday that while the government owned Dubai World, the conglomerate had long operated as a standalone entity and was never guaranteed by the emirate's government.

"It deals with all parties on this basis and it borrows based on ... its projects and not the guarantee of the government," Saleh said.

When contacted by Reuters and asked whether Dubai could still repay its Nakheel bond, Saleh declined to comment. Dubai World Chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem also declined to comment on Monday. Other Dubai World officials could not immediately be reached.

John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi-Credit Agricole Group, said the distinction between the Dubai government and the flagship company appeared minimal.

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The economies of the middle east are based on Oil prices. Many loans were made on the assumption that oil was going to stay above 100. Like every asset bubble oil is now returning to the beginning of the move. That would be 30 to 40. We are going to see a whole bunch of loans blow up and alot more Dubai's to come.
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