DJIA 9810 +145 SPX 1042 1063 +19.20 VIX 25.05 -.56 Gold 994.30 +3.30 Silver 16.23 +.17 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.64 +.02 Dollar Index 77.10 +.085 EURO 1.4622 -.0004(Long Term Gov Bonds)98.50 +.52 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)92.19 +.08 XLK (Tech)21.01 +.43 XLE (Oil Index)54.42 +.86 XLF (Financials Index)14.93 +.34 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.10 +.21 EEM (Emerging Markets)38.72 +.63 FXI (China Index)41.51 +.28 GDX (Gold Miners Index)43.68 +.63
In this game of deception where the economy is deteriorating the rapidly they are pulling out the buyout card. This move is intended to misdirect the attention of the players from the economy to price action created by "M & A activity. I have to admit I never see this one coming because I am always so focused on the economy that I don't even consider it.
These deals signal a top because they want to make one last push to get everyone back into the market. It makes the market all about price and trades come quick and easy. It also plants the seed in the shorts head that they can come and get him anytime they want.
The bonds are continuing to move higher as attention is misdirected into the hot market, The TLT hit a 5 month high today at 98.66. The corporate and municipal bond markets are back to premarket breakdowns which shows that the fear that was created by the Lehman meltdown is gone.
What is happening is that investors are tired of making nothing in the bank and they are buying bonds of all kinds. I was in the bank last week and I overheard a financial planner talking to people about bond funds. He was telling them that the way the managers structuring the length of the maturities of the bonds. What he did not tell them was that the risk is in the principal and not the maturity date.
Those people had probably come into the bank to rollover a CD and when they balked at the rate the bank was giving the nice little teller told them that the financial planner could give them some higher yielding alternatives. Of course these alternatives will cost them a lot of money when the next crunch comes.
The next crunch is coming because I can see the little people moving now. The game of deception is working as it always does and the system will benefit from it. The system is good at not only creating messes but cleaning them up because there is a lot of money to be made by unscrupulous opportunists that take advantage of hard working people that don't understand what is going on.
All across the country there are many people going into banks and telling their tellers that they can't live on the meager interest rates the banks are giving. Everyone of those tellers are referring the customers to the financial planners that will "help" them make a better return on their money.
I saw a bit on CNBC where the question was asked what is the better investment OIL or Gold. It was a forgone conclusion that they were both good investments and the question was not asked IF either one was good. That tells me something because there is no longer an argument about weather either one is going up. In the sceme of things that message is a statement that they believe that their message is fully accepted.
I expect the market to beat me up for a while for shorting last week but that is part of the game. The hand is set and this action is just one more nail in their coffin.
The beat goes on....Mikey
Monday, September 28, 2009
Friday, September 25, 2009
The Dollar, prices, the economy and the illusion...What is the Fed really doing?
Stay tuned to this blog next week I will reveal the truth about what is taking place.
It is a chicken an egg puzzle. I will say this everyone has it backwards.
Have a good weekend!
The beat goes on....Mikey
It is a chicken an egg puzzle. I will say this everyone has it backwards.
Have a good weekend!
The beat goes on....Mikey
They are not showing you Nat Gas and Gasoline prices collapsing
What if I told you that Natural Gas prices are lower than they were in 2003 and wholesale gasoline prices topped on August 3rd at 1.95 and are 1.62 today. The retail price at the pumps has not fallen because the oil companies are dragging their feet. The longer they hold up the price the smaller the demand is and the lower the price will go. This is what is happening to the consumer at the stores. The retailers are not passing along the decreases and this in turn is slowing demand. They are all thinking things will be like they used to be but I call it denial and the Fed is bringing alot of it on with their "economy is bottoming" story
That is the true measure of strength and weakness in the economy not the were bottoming BS we hear from the Fed.
That is the true measure of strength and weakness in the economy not the were bottoming BS we hear from the Fed.
TLT (Long Term Governments) make a 4 month high
DJIA 9648 -58.80 SPX 1042 -8.11 VIX 26.26 +1.31 Gold 991 -7.90 Silver 16.10 -.195RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.62 -.02 Dollar Index 76.98 -.135 EURO 1.4672 .0019 (Long Term Gov Bonds) TLT 97.64 +.86 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)92.09 +.28 XLK (Tech) 20.57 -.14 XLE (Oil Index)53.23 -.40 XLF (Financials Index)14.54 -.19 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.85 -.39 EEM (Emerging Markets)37.92 -.01 FXI (China Index)41.02 -.18 GDX (Gold Miners Index) 42.85 -.88
Long term Government bonds (TLT) are at a 4 month high now trading at 97.64. That does not make any sense if you believe their story. It does if you follow this blog. I will only refer you to my comments on the Fed and the bond market since my call to buy the bonds on Aug 24th.
Of course the Fed is tightening and not printing as the tout would have you believe. They are putting money in the bond market and withholding it from the economy and the consumer. Just watch the bonds that will tell you what they are doing.
The stock market is now showing some emerging weakness along with strength in the dollar. I think this dollar strength makes more sense if you know they are not printing but tightening. Every yahoo is now short the dollar and long Gold and stocks and looking to buy pullbacks or short run ups in the dollar.
That is just where the Fed wants them.
By the way a note of interest is that wholesale gasoline has dropped a cool 32 cents in the last 3 weeks. The retailers have not chosen to drop the price yet, however.
The beat goes on.....Mikey
Long term Government bonds (TLT) are at a 4 month high now trading at 97.64. That does not make any sense if you believe their story. It does if you follow this blog. I will only refer you to my comments on the Fed and the bond market since my call to buy the bonds on Aug 24th.
Of course the Fed is tightening and not printing as the tout would have you believe. They are putting money in the bond market and withholding it from the economy and the consumer. Just watch the bonds that will tell you what they are doing.
The stock market is now showing some emerging weakness along with strength in the dollar. I think this dollar strength makes more sense if you know they are not printing but tightening. Every yahoo is now short the dollar and long Gold and stocks and looking to buy pullbacks or short run ups in the dollar.
That is just where the Fed wants them.
By the way a note of interest is that wholesale gasoline has dropped a cool 32 cents in the last 3 weeks. The retailers have not chosen to drop the price yet, however.
The beat goes on.....Mikey
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Keep your eye on the TLT
That is the long term government bond market. The index is now trading at 96.86. If this index breaks out above 100 then something is very wrong with their story. The long rates will be starting to cave in. That does not add up, and 1+1 is no longer 2. The same thing happened in reverse in late January as the bonds tanked and their story was one of deflation and financial collapse.
If you have read this blog on a regular basis you know that the Fed is long the Bond market and they want it higher. When they are buying bonds the money supply drops and that is called tightening. So what is really happening now is tightening and not printing as they are telling us. That will lead to a stronger dollar and weaker Gold and commodity prices.
The proof is in the price of the bonds not the market. They want you to focus on the market and come to the conclusion that the economy is growing as they buy bonds and push long rates lower. When they pump it will be when they sell their bonds and they can only do that to willing public buyers. What will make the public buy? A bad economy and falling Gold and commodity prices. That is when the dump their Gold and stocks.
This is a simple game of misdirection that will not make any sense unless you know what the purpose is. The purpose now is to run up the bond market. When I say run up the bond market I mean Government bonds. The corporate bond market especially the High yield and Municipal bond markets will get roasted as credit quality issues come back with the decline of the economy.
I would not rule out the possibility of an unforeseen event occurring to "derail" the economic expansion that is in their words unfolding now. What does that mean? Well, I can't say because I am just an observer in this process. At times like this I have seen this unforeseen event before. Whatever road it takes the outcome is bad.
What happens at the next low? The public hopefully gives up on the stock market and wild horses could not get them to come back into it because they will know that they have been deceived on this rally. That is when we set a solid low.
As a rookie broker I was told don't chase the first rally and that applies to every time frame from 1 hour, to 1 day, to 1 year, and to 10 years. This is the first rally and it will fail because that is the way the game is played.
The beat goes on.... Mikey
If you have read this blog on a regular basis you know that the Fed is long the Bond market and they want it higher. When they are buying bonds the money supply drops and that is called tightening. So what is really happening now is tightening and not printing as they are telling us. That will lead to a stronger dollar and weaker Gold and commodity prices.
The proof is in the price of the bonds not the market. They want you to focus on the market and come to the conclusion that the economy is growing as they buy bonds and push long rates lower. When they pump it will be when they sell their bonds and they can only do that to willing public buyers. What will make the public buy? A bad economy and falling Gold and commodity prices. That is when the dump their Gold and stocks.
This is a simple game of misdirection that will not make any sense unless you know what the purpose is. The purpose now is to run up the bond market. When I say run up the bond market I mean Government bonds. The corporate bond market especially the High yield and Municipal bond markets will get roasted as credit quality issues come back with the decline of the economy.
I would not rule out the possibility of an unforeseen event occurring to "derail" the economic expansion that is in their words unfolding now. What does that mean? Well, I can't say because I am just an observer in this process. At times like this I have seen this unforeseen event before. Whatever road it takes the outcome is bad.
What happens at the next low? The public hopefully gives up on the stock market and wild horses could not get them to come back into it because they will know that they have been deceived on this rally. That is when we set a solid low.
As a rookie broker I was told don't chase the first rally and that applies to every time frame from 1 hour, to 1 day, to 1 year, and to 10 years. This is the first rally and it will fail because that is the way the game is played.
The beat goes on.... Mikey
Fed says there is growth coming and leaves rates unchanged....That tells you something .................. A Top I think so
DJIA 9700 -47 SPX 1051 -8.73 VIX 25.01 +1.47 Gold 999.30 -15.10 Silver 16.45 -.4550 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.631 -.07 Dollar Index 76.92 +.625 EURO 1.4692 -.71 (Long Term Gov Bonds) TLT 96.74 +.27 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.73 +.17 XLK (Tech) 20.77 -.14 XLE (Oil Index) 53.62 -.79 XLF (Financials Index)14.90 -.13 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.45 -.08 EEM (Emerging Markets)38.18 -.51 FXI (China Index)41.16 -.16 GDX (Gold Miners Index) 43.84 -1.00
What if I everyone is worried about inflation and a growing economy and the Fed left rates unchanged. Well let's see 1+1=2 QED Presto that means that were are going to have even more growth and more inflation. That is unless behind them scene the Fed is tightening while their buddies the investment experts are telling us to worry about something that is the last thing we have to worry about. In this game when 1+1=2 and John Q is convinced then the equation is about to change. Y
Yesterday, after the Fed decision was announced the dollar got whacked and the market took off. That lasted about 1/2 hour and since that time the dollar has been strong and the market weak. The markets, Gold and commodities have not acted according to their story lately.
A top or bottom always comes when a story that is very compelling to the public because of price and media hype. The only problem with the story is that is it a bald faced lie. The price action will continue with this lie and the great unwashed public will follow it because the price is making them money.
At some point the story no longer makes them money but the story still makes senses. That is the completion of the top or bottom. That is to say when the story remains but is losing money then you have something different going on and that is the end of it.
It looks to me that we are beginning to see that now. I suspect that this is the top for that reason. Everyone now has reacted to the inflation and growth story. They have bought this story and believe it. They have made money and are confident that it is the truth. They will not sell as prices drop and will buy the dips just as Cramer and others have told them to do. They will do this because they have had some success and the story is very real because it has been accompanied by price action that validates it.
Well now the Fed is doing nothing to stop the inflation bug and that will keep the Gold bugs and growth puppies long as the prices decline. How will the decline happen? I think it will not be a crash but a slow turn so as to not scare anyone who has bought into this lie.
They have all figured out that a weak dollar means a strong market. I saw that mentioned by Art Cashin in his post on CNBC this week. After yesterday I do not think they will believe that the dollar can do anything but decline. Therefore I think they will not believe dollar strength and market weakness when it comes.
Bought BGZ (3X Large cap short) @20.72
Bought FXP (2X China short) @ 9.06
Bought ZSL (2X Silver Short)@ 5.37
Bought GLL (2X Gold short) @12.79
Bought SMN (2X Basic materials short) @ 10.96
Shorted F @ 7.50
Shorted AXP @ 33.37
Jeff Shannon I like your position in the FAZ now
The beat goes on...Mikey
What if I everyone is worried about inflation and a growing economy and the Fed left rates unchanged. Well let's see 1+1=2 QED Presto that means that were are going to have even more growth and more inflation. That is unless behind them scene the Fed is tightening while their buddies the investment experts are telling us to worry about something that is the last thing we have to worry about. In this game when 1+1=2 and John Q is convinced then the equation is about to change. Y
Yesterday, after the Fed decision was announced the dollar got whacked and the market took off. That lasted about 1/2 hour and since that time the dollar has been strong and the market weak. The markets, Gold and commodities have not acted according to their story lately.
A top or bottom always comes when a story that is very compelling to the public because of price and media hype. The only problem with the story is that is it a bald faced lie. The price action will continue with this lie and the great unwashed public will follow it because the price is making them money.
At some point the story no longer makes them money but the story still makes senses. That is the completion of the top or bottom. That is to say when the story remains but is losing money then you have something different going on and that is the end of it.
It looks to me that we are beginning to see that now. I suspect that this is the top for that reason. Everyone now has reacted to the inflation and growth story. They have bought this story and believe it. They have made money and are confident that it is the truth. They will not sell as prices drop and will buy the dips just as Cramer and others have told them to do. They will do this because they have had some success and the story is very real because it has been accompanied by price action that validates it.
Well now the Fed is doing nothing to stop the inflation bug and that will keep the Gold bugs and growth puppies long as the prices decline. How will the decline happen? I think it will not be a crash but a slow turn so as to not scare anyone who has bought into this lie.
They have all figured out that a weak dollar means a strong market. I saw that mentioned by Art Cashin in his post on CNBC this week. After yesterday I do not think they will believe that the dollar can do anything but decline. Therefore I think they will not believe dollar strength and market weakness when it comes.
Bought BGZ (3X Large cap short) @20.72
Bought FXP (2X China short) @ 9.06
Bought ZSL (2X Silver Short)@ 5.37
Bought GLL (2X Gold short) @12.79
Bought SMN (2X Basic materials short) @ 10.96
Shorted F @ 7.50
Shorted AXP @ 33.37
Jeff Shannon I like your position in the FAZ now
The beat goes on...Mikey
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Close to a top ..Hurray the flood is over!
DJIA 9869 +39 SPX 1075 +3.76
I am getting very close to shorting here. Nothing yet will let you know. It is getting knee deep in BS now and I am just waiting for the turn. The good news is that the flood waters are receding the bad news is that when they do you will see a disaster. That is the analogy I will use to compare the economy to the flood in the Southeast. Hurray! The flood is over that is the good news...the bad news is we are wiped out. That is the true state of the economy.
Mikey
I am getting very close to shorting here. Nothing yet will let you know. It is getting knee deep in BS now and I am just waiting for the turn. The good news is that the flood waters are receding the bad news is that when they do you will see a disaster. That is the analogy I will use to compare the economy to the flood in the Southeast. Hurray! The flood is over that is the good news...the bad news is we are wiped out. That is the true state of the economy.
Mikey
Monday, September 21, 2009
Weakness emerging in Pound, Euro Gold Miners
DJIA 9777 -42.85 SPX 1063.33 -4.97 VIX 24.28 +.36 Gold 1005 -5.70 Silver 16.92 -.145Oil69.33 -2.71 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.75 -.08 Dollar Index 76.98 +.31 EURO 1.4673 -.0047 (Long Term Gov Bonds) TLT 96.17 +.41 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.40 +.22 XLK (Tech Index)20.84 -.05 XLE (Oil Index54.48 -.70 XLF (Financials index)14.99 -.15
XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.93 -.16 EEM (Emerging Markets)38.61 -.42
FXI (China Index)42.81 -.55 GDX (Gold Miners Index) 44.74 -1.17
The game seems to be trash the dollar and pump up equity. The GDX seems to be a leader in this story as it turned down from its highs on 9/17 and has pulled back a cool 10%. I now see the Euro and the market showing the same kind of weakness that the Gold Miners did near the top. That index hit its 20 day today lets see if the rest follow that lead.
Shorted EWZ (Brazil Fund ) today at 65.26
The beat goes on ...Mikey
XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.93 -.16 EEM (Emerging Markets)38.61 -.42
FXI (China Index)42.81 -.55 GDX (Gold Miners Index) 44.74 -1.17
The game seems to be trash the dollar and pump up equity. The GDX seems to be a leader in this story as it turned down from its highs on 9/17 and has pulled back a cool 10%. I now see the Euro and the market showing the same kind of weakness that the Gold Miners did near the top. That index hit its 20 day today lets see if the rest follow that lead.
Shorted EWZ (Brazil Fund ) today at 65.26
The beat goes on ...Mikey
Friday, September 18, 2009
Cramer says sell Bonds...Why???
Nobody cares about bonds ...right. Well if you are the treasury or the Fed you do. That is the way they make their money. They trade the bond market.
The last 4 weeks the treasury has sold tons and I mean tons of bonds. This is at a time when the Gold market is "breaking out" and the dollar is "breaking down". Who in their right mind would buy these bonds. That's right the Fed and their buddies the banks. That is how they make their money. The stock market and Gold are just small sideshows designed to frame attitudes about the economy. Once the stock market and Gold frame the attitudes money is moved.
If you look at a chart on the bond they bottomed in June. That is when I sold and that is when the economy rolled over. The bonds always tell the truth. The market and Gold are giving you the opposite opinion. Only the bonds will tell you what is really happening.
How does the Fed and their buddies get the traders and public to sell their bonds and buy inflation hedges and growth in a falling economy. They rally the market and break out Gold. All the time moving the bonds higher. It is all about maintaining a long position in the bonds now and to get sellers coming to them because "the economy is growing." You would get that impression by watching the stock market and Gold now wouldn't you. But in the end when they want to sell their bonds the market and Gold will be on their butts.
The REAL GAME IS IN THE BOND MARKET NOT STOCKS OR GOLD. They are just sideshows designed to bias opinion.
What is the public doing now...They are buying inflation hedges and selling bonds and coming out of their safe hiding places they went into between October and March. They are buying Gold and high yield Corporate and Municipal bonds. Those sellers need the money real bad now because the economy is so bad and the retail system is working overtime in the press and on TV to tell the public what to do.
The public is always wrong and that is what they are doing now and the insiders are selling as much as they can to tide them over for the next disaster which is sure to come.
Now Cramer tells us to sell the bonds. Guess who he works for. More on this in future blogs.
The beat goes on....Mikey
The last 4 weeks the treasury has sold tons and I mean tons of bonds. This is at a time when the Gold market is "breaking out" and the dollar is "breaking down". Who in their right mind would buy these bonds. That's right the Fed and their buddies the banks. That is how they make their money. The stock market and Gold are just small sideshows designed to frame attitudes about the economy. Once the stock market and Gold frame the attitudes money is moved.
If you look at a chart on the bond they bottomed in June. That is when I sold and that is when the economy rolled over. The bonds always tell the truth. The market and Gold are giving you the opposite opinion. Only the bonds will tell you what is really happening.
How does the Fed and their buddies get the traders and public to sell their bonds and buy inflation hedges and growth in a falling economy. They rally the market and break out Gold. All the time moving the bonds higher. It is all about maintaining a long position in the bonds now and to get sellers coming to them because "the economy is growing." You would get that impression by watching the stock market and Gold now wouldn't you. But in the end when they want to sell their bonds the market and Gold will be on their butts.
The REAL GAME IS IN THE BOND MARKET NOT STOCKS OR GOLD. They are just sideshows designed to bias opinion.
What is the public doing now...They are buying inflation hedges and selling bonds and coming out of their safe hiding places they went into between October and March. They are buying Gold and high yield Corporate and Municipal bonds. Those sellers need the money real bad now because the economy is so bad and the retail system is working overtime in the press and on TV to tell the public what to do.
The public is always wrong and that is what they are doing now and the insiders are selling as much as they can to tide them over for the next disaster which is sure to come.
Now Cramer tells us to sell the bonds. Guess who he works for. More on this in future blogs.
The beat goes on....Mikey
Friday, September 11, 2009
Who is telling the truth? The bonds or the market
DJIA 9605.41 -22.07 SPX 1042.73 -1.41 VIX 24.15 +.60 Gold 1007 +10.60 Silver 16.77 +.10 Oil 69.12 -2.82 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.75 -.05 Dollar Index 76.89 -.1950 EURO 1.4608 +.0025 (Long Term Gov Bonds) TLT 96.60 +.43 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)92.09 +.34 XLK (Tech Index)20.65 -.01 XLE (Oil Index)53.51 +.12 XLF (Financials index)14.51 -.11XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.62 UNCH EEM (Emerging Markets)37.88 +.04 FXI (China Index)42.35 -.23 GDX (Gold Miners Index) 46.23 +.69
Both the bonds and the market are going up together. That means that the long rates are falling and the economy is getting stronger. You can't have it both ways. The same happen in reverse between January of this year and March of this year. The bond market was falling and the market was falling. In other words, the long term interest rates were rising and the economy was "said" to be falling.
To figure out the answer to this question I always ask what makes the most sense. Between January and March it made sense that the market was falling but it made no sense that the Long interest rates were rising. That lead the public to sell their stocks and buy bonds because it made the most sense. Whoops that did not work.
Now what makes the most sense. The rates falling or the economy bottoming? The market is telling us that the economy is bottoming and that makes sense, The bonds rallying and interest rates dropping make no sense. The Dollar is falling and inflation is coming...that is what they say. So the public is selling their bonds and buying stocks and Gold. That makes sense, right?
The answer to the question who is right the bonds or the stock market? The Bonds are right because it make no sense that they are going up. The market and Gold make sense and that is what the public is doing.
If you remember that back in July on this blog I said the bonds were the place to be and they still are. The TLT is now at 96.76 off of a low of 87.56. That is a gain of about 11%. Why are the bonds going up when it makes no sense...They say there is going to be inflation and growth in the economy. Stay tuned it will make sense and not too far off in the future.
Where are the bonds going. I have no problem with the long rates making new lows and a 4% 30 year mortgage rate. I think the news will make the public want to be in bonds again. Guess who will be selling them ...Your friends Uncle Ben and his friends the banks.
The beat goes on.....Mikey
Both the bonds and the market are going up together. That means that the long rates are falling and the economy is getting stronger. You can't have it both ways. The same happen in reverse between January of this year and March of this year. The bond market was falling and the market was falling. In other words, the long term interest rates were rising and the economy was "said" to be falling.
To figure out the answer to this question I always ask what makes the most sense. Between January and March it made sense that the market was falling but it made no sense that the Long interest rates were rising. That lead the public to sell their stocks and buy bonds because it made the most sense. Whoops that did not work.
Now what makes the most sense. The rates falling or the economy bottoming? The market is telling us that the economy is bottoming and that makes sense, The bonds rallying and interest rates dropping make no sense. The Dollar is falling and inflation is coming...that is what they say. So the public is selling their bonds and buying stocks and Gold. That makes sense, right?
The answer to the question who is right the bonds or the stock market? The Bonds are right because it make no sense that they are going up. The market and Gold make sense and that is what the public is doing.
If you remember that back in July on this blog I said the bonds were the place to be and they still are. The TLT is now at 96.76 off of a low of 87.56. That is a gain of about 11%. Why are the bonds going up when it makes no sense...They say there is going to be inflation and growth in the economy. Stay tuned it will make sense and not too far off in the future.
Where are the bonds going. I have no problem with the long rates making new lows and a 4% 30 year mortgage rate. I think the news will make the public want to be in bonds again. Guess who will be selling them ...Your friends Uncle Ben and his friends the banks.
The beat goes on.....Mikey
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
More of the same
DJIA 9507 +10 SPX 1028.80 +3.21 VIX 24.86 -.76 Gold 992.80 -7.00 Silver 16.37 -.14 Oil 71.47 +.37 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.83 unch Dollar Index 77.09 -.24 EURO 1.4544 .0055 (Long Term Gov Bonds) TLT 94.17 -.37 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)90.98 -.01 XLK (Tech Index)20.28 +.04 XLE (Oil Index)52.27 -.09 XLF (Financials index)14.40 +.11 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.39 +.07 EEM (Emerging Markets)37.26 +.11 FXI (China Index)42.04 -.32 GDX (Gold Index) 43.92 -1.19
The idea of a growing economy and higher inflation and a lower dollar dominates "investor" opinions. Of course, this idea has been firmly planted in their heads by our friends the FED and their buddys the "experts". How much longer this farce will last is of course any ones guess but it looks close to me. Yesterday the GDX ( gold stocks index) reversed. I am keeping an eye on the EURO because it would not surprise me to see it reverse too.
It is now less than 2 weeks to expiration on the options and I would say that the crowd is heavy in Calls. Usually that means a selloff into the expiration.
Bought some ZSL( short silver) @ 5.78 today
The idea of a growing economy and higher inflation and a lower dollar dominates "investor" opinions. Of course, this idea has been firmly planted in their heads by our friends the FED and their buddys the "experts". How much longer this farce will last is of course any ones guess but it looks close to me. Yesterday the GDX ( gold stocks index) reversed. I am keeping an eye on the EURO because it would not surprise me to see it reverse too.
It is now less than 2 weeks to expiration on the options and I would say that the crowd is heavy in Calls. Usually that means a selloff into the expiration.
Bought some ZSL( short silver) @ 5.78 today
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Gold above 1000 Market breaking out...Oil above 72 ....The economy bottoming....Hold on look at this number
The commodity market is "on fire" the world economy is growing yada yada yada. Look at this number,...Consumer credit fell a mind numbing 21.60 billion in July after falling a revised 15.5 billion in June. Remember I have been harping about the consumer being 75% of the economy and the banks are pulling his credit cards and loans away from him. The "experts know this that is why they are hyping the growth economy. They want out of their commodities Gold and oil and equities.
The Fed and the banks are withdrawing money from the consumer. They are telling us that they economy is bottoming. It is not hard to see what is happening. They want a slowdown but they are talking about a pick up. This talk is about them selling out their long positions and putting the money into bonds. That sets up the next cycle when the pros then hype the depression and the bonds they are buying now are going through the roof.
All part of the game ....The beat goes on..Mikey
The Fed and the banks are withdrawing money from the consumer. They are telling us that they economy is bottoming. It is not hard to see what is happening. They want a slowdown but they are talking about a pick up. This talk is about them selling out their long positions and putting the money into bonds. That sets up the next cycle when the pros then hype the depression and the bonds they are buying now are going through the roof.
All part of the game ....The beat goes on..Mikey
Friday, September 4, 2009
Bad Number market rally
DJA 9440 +96.05 SPX 1016.38 +13.14 VIX 25.12 -1.98 Gold 993.20-4.50 Silver 16.25 -.45 Oil 67.76 -.20 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.77 -.03 Dollar Index 78.18 -.34 EURO 1.4303 .0055 (Long Term Gov Bonds) TLT 85.12 -1.74 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.21 -.54 XLK (Tech Index)20.03 +.29 XLE (Oil Index) 51.04 +.78 XLF (Financials index)14.21 +.15 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.03 +.24 EEM (Emerging Markets)36.36 +.65 FXI (China Index)41.12 +1.44
The market rallied on a bad jobs numbers today. Bullet proof. It is for now but part of the topping process. Will wait until I get a sell signal. Gold seems much closer to a selloff than the market. The public is long gold and not afraid of the selloff...they feel safe and look at it as a long term hold...a recipe for disaster. They are still concerned about the market. I put on a short position on the GDX the Gold miners index at 45.07 today.
I would think that the market will not top until we have a here we go rally that breaks out...kinda like Gold is getting now. Waiting for a reversal on GDX before I hit it heavy.
Have a great labor day weekend and be good to each other
The beat goes on...Mikey
The market rallied on a bad jobs numbers today. Bullet proof. It is for now but part of the topping process. Will wait until I get a sell signal. Gold seems much closer to a selloff than the market. The public is long gold and not afraid of the selloff...they feel safe and look at it as a long term hold...a recipe for disaster. They are still concerned about the market. I put on a short position on the GDX the Gold miners index at 45.07 today.
I would think that the market will not top until we have a here we go rally that breaks out...kinda like Gold is getting now. Waiting for a reversal on GDX before I hit it heavy.
Have a great labor day weekend and be good to each other
The beat goes on...Mikey
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Gold article on CNBC ...Here Fishy Fishey
Gold 992
They give you every way you can invest in Gold . Read this and remember what a top looks like:
Heavy Metal Jacket For Defensive Investors
Given the uncertain economic climate, is gold a sound investment?
“Gold has a place in almost every investment portfolio as a hedge or safety mechanism,” says Burton Rothberg, Ph.D., a former senior trader with Commodities Corporation, who has invested in the gold markets for decades.
In February, gold briefly pierced the $1000-an-ounce mark before retreating, and while prices have been volatile this year, they have mostly hovered above $900. Since gold is used as a hedge against inflation, prices have moved inversely to the dollar.
Rothberg recommends the average investor buy some gold purely for safety's sake. “If worse comes to worse—and I don’t just mean the economy in a recession, I mean if really bad things happen—gold is what you want to own because people will move away from paper currency.”
Bars, Funds And Contracts
He suggests buying solid gold bars at wholesale prices—the retail market brings a significant markup-and keeping it tucked away in a bank safe-deposit box. For smaller amounts, there are also gold coins, though these carry a mark-up for the expense of producing them.
“I would recommend the average investor, if they want to get into hard assets, put 3 percent to 5 percent of their money in gold and hope they never have to use it.”
Other experts encourage different ways to invest in precious metals.
“A mutual fund is probably more conducive for the average investor,” says Douglas Lockwood, CFP, of Harbor Lights Financial Group in Manasquan, N.J. “These invest in hard assets and mining companies, and transporter companies as a combination. Sometimes more money is made in the underlying companies.”
Mutual funds that fall into this category include USAA Precious Metals and Minerals [USAGX 29.03 2.08 (+7.72%) ], Van Eck Intl Investors Gold [USAGX 29.03 2.08 (+7.72%) ], and Evergreen Precious Metals [INIIX 20.77 1.50 (+7.78%) ].
“I think when we talk about precious metals, there’s a reason why they’re called ‘precious’,” says Lockwood. “Precious metals are a good thing to have for diversification, but I’d recommend a 2%-to-5% range. Any more than that is just dangerous.”
Mark Johnson, vice president of equity investments at USAA Precious Metals & Minerals Fund, agrees: “I think if one buys a well diversified mutual fund with some established track record, it’s appropriate for the small investor at maybe the 3%-to-5% level. You don’t want to put too much into this category because it is an inherently volatile category.”
According to Johnson, the disadvantage of a precious-metals mutual fund is that it doesn’t offer a direct play on the price of metal; while they generally move with the metal, there are periods when they align more with the stock market.
Gold Rules
Johnson adds that of all the precious metals, gold is the best for investment because it is used more as a currency.
“The other metals have industrial aspects to them and consequently are more economically sensitive,” he says. “They’re not as well situated to protect an investor from currency debasement, inflation, and just the overall portfolio insurance aspects.”
Rothberg says metals such as silver and platinum are trickier because they are also industrial metals. He notes that platinum prices are down sharply because—aside from jewelry, the metal is used primarily in the auto industry, which has been in a serious slump.
He sees palladium a “good businessman’s risk” for speculators, because there is a limited supply in the world.
Another avenue of investment exchange traded funds. Two of the most-often cited are US SPDR Gold Trust [GLD 97.26 1.07 (+1.11%) ] and iShares COMEX Gold Trust [IAU 97.27 1.03 (+1.07%) ].
“A gold ETF allows you to avoid the premium and storage cost [of owning physical gold], albeit there’s a small fee with an ETF,” Johnson says.
He cautions that since the IRS has determined gold to be a collectible, owning physical gold would subject the investor to the special long-term capital gains tax rate of 28 percent, not the normal 5-percent or 15-percent ones. (For less than one year it is 35-percent.) Owning shares of an ETF that holds gold or silver makes you subject to the higher rates.
“I’m not a big fan of ETFs because they can be thinly traded, which makes price and volatility harder than a mutual fund,” Lockwood says.
In addition, there is the gold futures market, in which you can open an account at an exchange such as the Comex.
Another option is to use online platforms to buy, store and trade gold. Web sites such as BullionVault.com and GoldMoney.com allow customers to purchase gold bullion and have it stored in a vault, usually in Zurich or London (BullionVault also uses a vault in New York).
One last note: the potential value of gold doesn’t extend to jewelry, which carries significant mark-ups after the gold has been fabricated and designed. Jewelry purchased for pleasure or as a gift holds a different kind of value. But don’t expect to get a return on your money if you try to sell a ring to “Gold for Less”, which pays only for the value of the gold, melted down.
I am getting excited because this is the type of article that appears at Gold tops. It all makes good sense, right? Gold is going to 275 and they want the public to own it!
Mikey
They give you every way you can invest in Gold . Read this and remember what a top looks like:
Heavy Metal Jacket For Defensive Investors
Given the uncertain economic climate, is gold a sound investment?
“Gold has a place in almost every investment portfolio as a hedge or safety mechanism,” says Burton Rothberg, Ph.D., a former senior trader with Commodities Corporation, who has invested in the gold markets for decades.
In February, gold briefly pierced the $1000-an-ounce mark before retreating, and while prices have been volatile this year, they have mostly hovered above $900. Since gold is used as a hedge against inflation, prices have moved inversely to the dollar.
Rothberg recommends the average investor buy some gold purely for safety's sake. “If worse comes to worse—and I don’t just mean the economy in a recession, I mean if really bad things happen—gold is what you want to own because people will move away from paper currency.”
Bars, Funds And Contracts
He suggests buying solid gold bars at wholesale prices—the retail market brings a significant markup-and keeping it tucked away in a bank safe-deposit box. For smaller amounts, there are also gold coins, though these carry a mark-up for the expense of producing them.
“I would recommend the average investor, if they want to get into hard assets, put 3 percent to 5 percent of their money in gold and hope they never have to use it.”
Other experts encourage different ways to invest in precious metals.
“A mutual fund is probably more conducive for the average investor,” says Douglas Lockwood, CFP, of Harbor Lights Financial Group in Manasquan, N.J. “These invest in hard assets and mining companies, and transporter companies as a combination. Sometimes more money is made in the underlying companies.”
Mutual funds that fall into this category include USAA Precious Metals and Minerals [USAGX 29.03 2.08 (+7.72%) ], Van Eck Intl Investors Gold [USAGX 29.03 2.08 (+7.72%) ], and Evergreen Precious Metals [INIIX 20.77 1.50 (+7.78%) ].
“I think when we talk about precious metals, there’s a reason why they’re called ‘precious’,” says Lockwood. “Precious metals are a good thing to have for diversification, but I’d recommend a 2%-to-5% range. Any more than that is just dangerous.”
Mark Johnson, vice president of equity investments at USAA Precious Metals & Minerals Fund, agrees: “I think if one buys a well diversified mutual fund with some established track record, it’s appropriate for the small investor at maybe the 3%-to-5% level. You don’t want to put too much into this category because it is an inherently volatile category.”
According to Johnson, the disadvantage of a precious-metals mutual fund is that it doesn’t offer a direct play on the price of metal; while they generally move with the metal, there are periods when they align more with the stock market.
Gold Rules
Johnson adds that of all the precious metals, gold is the best for investment because it is used more as a currency.
“The other metals have industrial aspects to them and consequently are more economically sensitive,” he says. “They’re not as well situated to protect an investor from currency debasement, inflation, and just the overall portfolio insurance aspects.”
Rothberg says metals such as silver and platinum are trickier because they are also industrial metals. He notes that platinum prices are down sharply because—aside from jewelry, the metal is used primarily in the auto industry, which has been in a serious slump.
He sees palladium a “good businessman’s risk” for speculators, because there is a limited supply in the world.
Another avenue of investment exchange traded funds. Two of the most-often cited are US SPDR Gold Trust [GLD 97.26 1.07 (+1.11%) ] and iShares COMEX Gold Trust [IAU 97.27 1.03 (+1.07%) ].
“A gold ETF allows you to avoid the premium and storage cost [of owning physical gold], albeit there’s a small fee with an ETF,” Johnson says.
He cautions that since the IRS has determined gold to be a collectible, owning physical gold would subject the investor to the special long-term capital gains tax rate of 28 percent, not the normal 5-percent or 15-percent ones. (For less than one year it is 35-percent.) Owning shares of an ETF that holds gold or silver makes you subject to the higher rates.
“I’m not a big fan of ETFs because they can be thinly traded, which makes price and volatility harder than a mutual fund,” Lockwood says.
In addition, there is the gold futures market, in which you can open an account at an exchange such as the Comex.
Another option is to use online platforms to buy, store and trade gold. Web sites such as BullionVault.com and GoldMoney.com allow customers to purchase gold bullion and have it stored in a vault, usually in Zurich or London (BullionVault also uses a vault in New York).
One last note: the potential value of gold doesn’t extend to jewelry, which carries significant mark-ups after the gold has been fabricated and designed. Jewelry purchased for pleasure or as a gift holds a different kind of value. But don’t expect to get a return on your money if you try to sell a ring to “Gold for Less”, which pays only for the value of the gold, melted down.
I am getting excited because this is the type of article that appears at Gold tops. It all makes good sense, right? Gold is going to 275 and they want the public to own it!
Mikey
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
FMOC ...Economy recovering..
Fed Officials More Confident Recession is Ending
With the economy on the mend, Federal Reserve policymakers last month felt comfortable slowing the pace of one of its economic revival programs and not changing any others, according to documents released Wednesday.
Minutes of the central bank's closed door deliberations, held Aug. 11-12, also showed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues striking a much more hopeful note about the economy's prospects compared with an assessment made in late June. Many Fed officials saw "smaller downside risks," the documents stated.
Fed officials expected the pace of the recovery to "pick up" in 2010, but there was a range of views — and considerable uncertainty — about the likely strength of the upturn because of concerns about how consumers will behave.
After being pounded by the recession, consumer spending finally appeared to be leveling out, the housing market was firming and manufacturing was stabilizing, the Fed said. Plus, the outlook for other countries' economies improved, auguring well for the sale of U.S. exports.
All that strengthened the confidence of Fed officials that "the downturn in economic activity was ending." They also repeated a prediction that the economy would start growing again in the second half of this year. That expected growth will be helped by President Barack Obama's $787 billion package of tax cuts and increased government spending, they said.
Against that backdrop, the Fed at its August meeting, announced that it would gradually slow the pace of its program to buy the remainder of $300 billion worth of Treasury securities and shut it down at the end of October, a month later than previously scheduled. The program is designed to force interest rates down for mortgages and other consumer debt, and spur Americans to spend more money.
The Fed also did not change another program that aims to push down mortgage rates. In that venture, the Fed is on track to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the end of the year.
"With the downside risks to the economic outlook now considerably reduced, but the economic recovery likely to be damped" Fed policymakers agreed that it didn't need to either expand or cut back those programs.
Fed officials suggested consumers will be a wild card in the unfolding recovery.
A "poor" jobs market, evaporated wealth from decimated home and stock values, hard-to-get credit and wages that aren't supposed to advance sharply anytime soon mean consumers are still facing "considerable headwinds," the minutes said. How consumers behave is crucial to the recovery because their spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of all economic activity.
"With these forces restraining spending, and with labor income likely to remain soft, (Fed) participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending going forward," the Fed minutes stated.
Unemployment — now at 9.4 percent and expected to top 10 percent this year — is the biggest burden facing American consumers. Another source of uncertainty: the extent to which consumers will sock more money into savings, the Fed said.
To entice consumers to spend more, the Fed last month also left a key interest rate at a record low of near zero. It pledged to hold that bank lending rate at between zero and 0.25 percent for an "extended period." Economists predict that means through the rest of this year. (That is great but who qualifies?)
As a result, commercial banks' prime lending rate, used as a peg for rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will stay at about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.
ONE PROBLEM THE BANKS ARE NOT LEADING. Between 2005 to 2008 the banks would lead to anyone. Now, forget it. No credit available. Why, the banks say the government won't let them. The government owns the banks. Think about that one when the FMOC says we have a recovery.
By the way the TLT...97.50 +1.44 (Bonds) are up nicely today. The CFTC is talking position limits on Commodity contracts. What is happening is DELEVERAGING that coming off a debt bubble is bad news for the highly leveraged consumer. Commodities are dead men walking and that includes Oil and Gold.
I say again the government does not want a recovery at least not now. They own alot of bonds. Those will be the winners and do well in A BAD ECONOMY. Remember we just had a huge bond offering ..Who bought them. The Fed said it was going to stop buying down the long end through the end of Qctober. I am betting that with all this good economic news that the FED bought the bonds as they sell out their bank stocks.
The beat goes on...Mikey
With the economy on the mend, Federal Reserve policymakers last month felt comfortable slowing the pace of one of its economic revival programs and not changing any others, according to documents released Wednesday.
Minutes of the central bank's closed door deliberations, held Aug. 11-12, also showed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues striking a much more hopeful note about the economy's prospects compared with an assessment made in late June. Many Fed officials saw "smaller downside risks," the documents stated.
Fed officials expected the pace of the recovery to "pick up" in 2010, but there was a range of views — and considerable uncertainty — about the likely strength of the upturn because of concerns about how consumers will behave.
After being pounded by the recession, consumer spending finally appeared to be leveling out, the housing market was firming and manufacturing was stabilizing, the Fed said. Plus, the outlook for other countries' economies improved, auguring well for the sale of U.S. exports.
All that strengthened the confidence of Fed officials that "the downturn in economic activity was ending." They also repeated a prediction that the economy would start growing again in the second half of this year. That expected growth will be helped by President Barack Obama's $787 billion package of tax cuts and increased government spending, they said.
Against that backdrop, the Fed at its August meeting, announced that it would gradually slow the pace of its program to buy the remainder of $300 billion worth of Treasury securities and shut it down at the end of October, a month later than previously scheduled. The program is designed to force interest rates down for mortgages and other consumer debt, and spur Americans to spend more money.
The Fed also did not change another program that aims to push down mortgage rates. In that venture, the Fed is on track to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the end of the year.
"With the downside risks to the economic outlook now considerably reduced, but the economic recovery likely to be damped" Fed policymakers agreed that it didn't need to either expand or cut back those programs.
Fed officials suggested consumers will be a wild card in the unfolding recovery.
A "poor" jobs market, evaporated wealth from decimated home and stock values, hard-to-get credit and wages that aren't supposed to advance sharply anytime soon mean consumers are still facing "considerable headwinds," the minutes said. How consumers behave is crucial to the recovery because their spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of all economic activity.
"With these forces restraining spending, and with labor income likely to remain soft, (Fed) participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending going forward," the Fed minutes stated.
Unemployment — now at 9.4 percent and expected to top 10 percent this year — is the biggest burden facing American consumers. Another source of uncertainty: the extent to which consumers will sock more money into savings, the Fed said.
To entice consumers to spend more, the Fed last month also left a key interest rate at a record low of near zero. It pledged to hold that bank lending rate at between zero and 0.25 percent for an "extended period." Economists predict that means through the rest of this year. (That is great but who qualifies?)
As a result, commercial banks' prime lending rate, used as a peg for rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will stay at about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.
ONE PROBLEM THE BANKS ARE NOT LEADING. Between 2005 to 2008 the banks would lead to anyone. Now, forget it. No credit available. Why, the banks say the government won't let them. The government owns the banks. Think about that one when the FMOC says we have a recovery.
By the way the TLT...97.50 +1.44 (Bonds) are up nicely today. The CFTC is talking position limits on Commodity contracts. What is happening is DELEVERAGING that coming off a debt bubble is bad news for the highly leveraged consumer. Commodities are dead men walking and that includes Oil and Gold.
I say again the government does not want a recovery at least not now. They own alot of bonds. Those will be the winners and do well in A BAD ECONOMY. Remember we just had a huge bond offering ..Who bought them. The Fed said it was going to stop buying down the long end through the end of Qctober. I am betting that with all this good economic news that the FED bought the bonds as they sell out their bank stocks.
The beat goes on...Mikey
Gold!!!Gold!!! They found Gold in Hell
Gold 978.30 +21.80
The is an old joke about some stockbrokers sitting around in an office swapping lies when all of a sudden the door slammed open and a man started yelling, They found gold in Hell, They found Gold in Hell!
With that every broker ran out the front door and went straight to Hell. There was an old broker who sat in the back and who never entered the younger brokers discussions. The old broker started to laugh telling the receptionist that that was the oldest rumor in the book and he wasn't going to fall for that.
Several minutes passed and the old broker jumped to his feet and started to run toward the door. The receptionist asked. Where are you going whereas the old broker replied I am going to Hell because there may be some truth to that rumor.
After months of trading sideways Gold is "breaking out" to the upside. CNBC has run several stories touting that move and bring on a Guest, a top flight gold fund manager, that is telling us that September through December are the best months for Gold.
Mikey is itching to short Gold and they found it in HELL. No trades yet but I will chase any reversal of this breakout. My short will come on a trade below 940.
The is an old joke about some stockbrokers sitting around in an office swapping lies when all of a sudden the door slammed open and a man started yelling, They found gold in Hell, They found Gold in Hell!
With that every broker ran out the front door and went straight to Hell. There was an old broker who sat in the back and who never entered the younger brokers discussions. The old broker started to laugh telling the receptionist that that was the oldest rumor in the book and he wasn't going to fall for that.
Several minutes passed and the old broker jumped to his feet and started to run toward the door. The receptionist asked. Where are you going whereas the old broker replied I am going to Hell because there may be some truth to that rumor.
After months of trading sideways Gold is "breaking out" to the upside. CNBC has run several stories touting that move and bring on a Guest, a top flight gold fund manager, that is telling us that September through December are the best months for Gold.
Mikey is itching to short Gold and they found it in HELL. No trades yet but I will chase any reversal of this breakout. My short will come on a trade below 940.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Question...Do they want a recovery?
Remember in 2007 when real estate price were tanking. What did the Fed do. Answer: very little. If they wanted the prices to stabilize then they would have cut rates to 4%. The result was collapsing real estate. They did not lower interest rates then because of the THE STRONG JOB MARKET would prop up real estate. Remember?....Bernanke said in July 2005
"While speculative behavior appears to be surfacing in some local markets, strong economic fundamentals are contributing importantly to the housing boom," ...
Those fundamentals, Bernanke said, include low mortgage rates, rising employment and incomes, a growing population and a limited supply of homes or land in some areas.
"For example, states exhibiting higher rates of job growth also tend to have experienced greater appreciation in house prices,"
and added:
"The economy is strong. Jobs have been strong, incomes have been strong, mortgage rates have been very low," the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers said.
The pace of housing prices may slow at some point, Bernanke said, but they are unlikely to drop on a national basis.
"We've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis," he said, "What I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize ... I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full-employment path, though."
What is happening now. The consumer is dying no jobs loss of wealth high interest rates on consumer loans, What are they doing about it? Freaking nothing. That's right nada..zilch..zero. The same thing they did about real estate. Why because the economy is bottoming and the banks are safe now and INFLATION WORRIES.
What a joke, inflation is the last of our worries. The problem is that Joe Six pack is BROKE. He can't borrow, his credit card company is not extending him credit and if they do it's 20%.
What did the Government tell the banks. You can't raise rates AFTER FEB 2010. What not lower rates because the taxpayers bailed you out. but you can't raise rates. SOMETHING IS REALLY WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE.
The consumer is 75% of the economy and the Fed is doing nothing to help him. Jobless recovery...those words are mutually exclusive they don't fit unless you are selling out of your bank stocks.
What is Bernanke saying now....The economy is recovering.
Again I say Ben you are a liar!
I WILL TELL YOU THE TRUTH THAT THEY WON'T TELL. THEY DO NOT WANT A RECOVERY NOW.
What are the governments of the World buying now? The Dollar
What are they selling? Gold
I have a sell signal on MCD 55.67 I will short it on a close below 55.80
The beat goes on Mikey
"While speculative behavior appears to be surfacing in some local markets, strong economic fundamentals are contributing importantly to the housing boom," ...
Those fundamentals, Bernanke said, include low mortgage rates, rising employment and incomes, a growing population and a limited supply of homes or land in some areas.
"For example, states exhibiting higher rates of job growth also tend to have experienced greater appreciation in house prices,"
and added:
"The economy is strong. Jobs have been strong, incomes have been strong, mortgage rates have been very low," the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers said.
The pace of housing prices may slow at some point, Bernanke said, but they are unlikely to drop on a national basis.
"We've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis," he said, "What I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize ... I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full-employment path, though."
What is happening now. The consumer is dying no jobs loss of wealth high interest rates on consumer loans, What are they doing about it? Freaking nothing. That's right nada..zilch..zero. The same thing they did about real estate. Why because the economy is bottoming and the banks are safe now and INFLATION WORRIES.
What a joke, inflation is the last of our worries. The problem is that Joe Six pack is BROKE. He can't borrow, his credit card company is not extending him credit and if they do it's 20%.
What did the Government tell the banks. You can't raise rates AFTER FEB 2010. What not lower rates because the taxpayers bailed you out. but you can't raise rates. SOMETHING IS REALLY WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE.
The consumer is 75% of the economy and the Fed is doing nothing to help him. Jobless recovery...those words are mutually exclusive they don't fit unless you are selling out of your bank stocks.
What is Bernanke saying now....The economy is recovering.
Again I say Ben you are a liar!
I WILL TELL YOU THE TRUTH THAT THEY WON'T TELL. THEY DO NOT WANT A RECOVERY NOW.
What are the governments of the World buying now? The Dollar
What are they selling? Gold
I have a sell signal on MCD 55.67 I will short it on a close below 55.80
The beat goes on Mikey
Shot across the Bow
DJIA 9343 -153 SPX 1004 -16.46 VIX 27.90 +1.89 Gold 949.80 -3.80 Silver 14.82 -.078Oil 68.70 -1.26 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.81 unch Dollar Index 78.71 +.49 EURO 1.4236 -.0094 (Long Term Gov Bonds) TLT 96.03 -.56 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.48 -.12 XLK (Tech Index)19.71 -.31 XLE (Oil Index) 50.43 -.74 XLF (Financials index)14.23 -.47 XHB (Homebuilders Index) 15.06 -.45 EEM (Emerging Markets)34.92 -.49 FXI (China Index)38.57 -.74
They said expect a 3 to 5% correction and they said to buy the dips. Here is the first shot across the bow. We are now 3.6% correction on this hit. Let's see the extent of this hit and the rally that follows. We want to see how the boys handle this hit and what they say after the next rally comes in. If they say that the hit is a good thing because it needed it and that on the rally ...here we go...Then I short.
Remember what Cramer said on 8/27
"One of the factors that have been buoying the market is fund managers’ desperate scramble for stocks. They found themselves heavy on cash but light on equity as the market turned up, and now they’re buying stocks en masse to keep pace with their benchmark indexes. As a result, any price weakness lures them in, which puts a floor in and prevents a sell-off."
“So I have said take advantage of their panic, get in there ahead of them and buy,” Cramer said. “It’s been the surest strategy going.”
Mikey
They said expect a 3 to 5% correction and they said to buy the dips. Here is the first shot across the bow. We are now 3.6% correction on this hit. Let's see the extent of this hit and the rally that follows. We want to see how the boys handle this hit and what they say after the next rally comes in. If they say that the hit is a good thing because it needed it and that on the rally ...here we go...Then I short.
Remember what Cramer said on 8/27
"One of the factors that have been buoying the market is fund managers’ desperate scramble for stocks. They found themselves heavy on cash but light on equity as the market turned up, and now they’re buying stocks en masse to keep pace with their benchmark indexes. As a result, any price weakness lures them in, which puts a floor in and prevents a sell-off."
“So I have said take advantage of their panic, get in there ahead of them and buy,” Cramer said. “It’s been the surest strategy going.”
Mikey
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