Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Good day for the Dollar and Bonds Bad day for equities and inflation hedges

DJIA 9031 -68.09 SPX 970.41 -9.17 VIX 25.98 +.97 Gold 931 -7.70 Silver 13.38 -.3650Oil 63.83 -3.40 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.85 -.07 Dollar Index 79.71 +.7950 EURO 1.4016 -.0154 (Long Term Gov Bonds 92.14 +.94 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds 90.20 +.36 XLF (Tech Index)19.50-.18 XLE (Oil Index)48.97 -1.54 XLF (Financials index) 12.58 -.01 EEM (Emerging Markets)34.69 -.86 FXI (China Index)41.16 -1.70

The Euro rolled over and is breaking its rising 20 day average, touching its rising 50 day average and is at a 10 day low. Still not in a down trend but it may be the start of something. This is knocking down all the commodities.

Gold is still in a neutral trend but acted poorly on the last rally high in the market. Oil is off 3 bucks and again trading sideways. Big moves start this way but as of yet no cigar. Still watching but added a Little to my FXP (China Short) at 10.05

Yesterday, the touts said they were looking for a mild correction in the 5 to 7 % area. This selloff today may be a trial balloon to see if the shorts bite or the longs buy the dip. To have a meaningful selloff the longs have to buy the pullback and be rewarded for it and the shorts have to be spanked for shorting. Topping is a process. It rewards the buyers and spanks the sellers until the shorts give up and the longs feel comfortable.

Trends

S&P Long term ....Down.....Intermediate term ....Up....Short Term ......up

Gold Long Term....Flat....Intermediate Term....Flat... Short term ....Down

Oil Long Term...Down.....Intermediate Term ...UP....Short term ...Flat

Euro Long term ..Flat....Intermediate Term ...UP...Short term ...Down

Almost everything is trading right off the EURO. The dollar and Bonds are inverse to the Euro and the Market and commodities are the same. Still too early to tell which way we go in the near term but I think, as I said yesterday they need good macro economic numbers to tell us everything is OK and therefore I suspect the market will hold up a little longer.



The beat goes on...Mikey
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)