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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

The "better than expected" earnings extravaganza continues..Do you see the pattern?

Caterpillar Beats Forecasts, Shares Surge

U.S. machinery maker Caterpillar posted stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings Tuesday and raised its full-year outlook, citing what it said were growing signs of stability in the world's credit markets and economies.

The company, the world's largest maker of construction and mining equipment and a closely watched component of the Dow Jones industrial average, said fiscal stimulus programs, especially in China, were beginning to pay off and commodity prices were holding in a range that was positive for investment.

The upbeat outlook, which Caterpillar's chief executive said "set the foundation for an eventual recovery," sent the company's shares surging as much as 13 percent in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Caterpillar [CAT 39.05 2.40 (+6.55%) ] reported a second-quarter net profit of $371 million, or 60 cents a share, compared with $1.11 billion, or $1.74 a share, last year. Sales and revenue fell 41 percent to $7.98 billion.

Sripping out costs associated with layoffs and restructuring, Caterpillar made 72 cents a share. Since the end of 2008, Caterpillar has cut 17,100 full-time workers.

And this one:

Merck Tops Forecasts Sending Shares Higher

Merck said second-quarter earnings fell, hurt by lower sales of its cholesterol drugs, but income from partnerships and a rebound in sales of asthma drug Singulair helped the drugmaker beat profit forecasts.


Merck [MRK 29.44 1.50 (+5.37%) ], whose shares rose more than 4 percent on Tuesday, earned $1.59 billion, or 74 cents per share. That compares with $1.77 billion, or 82 cents per share, in the year-earlier period.

Merck, which plans to acquire Schering-Plough [SGP 26.41 0.84 (+3.29%) ] in coming months, said it earned 83 cents per share, excluding special items. Analysts on average expected 77 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue fell 3 percent to $5.90 billion but came in $70 million above the Reuters Estimate forecast. Sales would have risen 3 percent if not for the strong dollar, which undermines the value of overseas sales.

And this one:

Coca-Cola Profit Tops Expectations

Coca-Cola reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit Tuesday, aided by growth in emerging markets, but its shares fell as revenue was lighter than anticipated and investors looked for stocks with stronger growth potential.


The world's largest soft-drink maker's broad geographic footprint, especially in developing markets such as India and China, helped it weather an industry-wide slowdown in the United States.

Coke gets the bulk of its revenue from abroad, where soft-drink sales are still growing despite the weak global economy. Still, revenue declined more than analysts expected as growth slowed and the stronger U.S. dollar reduced the value of international sales.

and this one:

DuPont 2Q Profit Down 61% On Lower Volumes, But Tops


12:24 PM ET 7/21/09
Symbol Last % Chg
DD 27.85 -1.69%
Real time quote.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

DuPont Co.'s (DD) second-quarter profit plunged 61% on lower volumes as the chemical company continued to struggle with weak demand. Earnings results beat expectations, though revenue fell short of analysts' views.

Chemical companies have been scrambling to cope with falling demand in recent months as major customers in the construction, automotive and textile industries have slashed inventories. For its part, DuPont has announced 12,000 layoffs since late 2008 and cut its earnings target in April


Wow what great news...

CAT Caterpillar cut 17,100 full-time workers and Sales and revenue fell 41 percent to $7.98 billion.

MRK Revenue fell 3 percent to $5.90 billion and they plan to buy out SGP..why to lay off more workers and take their revenue into their bottom line.

Coke revenue declined more than analysts expected as growth slowed and the stronger U.S. dollar reduced the value of international sales.

DD got the crap kicked out of it but was better than expected


BUT AND IT IS A BIG BUT THEY BEAT ANALYST EXPECTATIONS. I guess those crazy analysts underestimated how many lay offs these stellar corporate citizens could cut. They all had big revenue declines. The way they dummied up earnings was by cutting jobs. I guess that this is going to be a corporate economic recovery. But that only lasts so long as at some point someone has to buy their stuff.

What is funny is that a stong dollar hurt sales at Coke and Merck.

I find it also interesting that the stocks they are highlighting are DJIA stocks..KO CAT..MRK..INTC..IBM...DD

What a great recovery!!!! It's all about the spin. The Emperor has no clothes. Do you see the pattern? This market is going to take the lows out.


The beat goes on...Mikey

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